For the second straight season, the LSU Tigers and Mississippi State Bulldogs will open SEC play against one another. Mississippi State won the 2020 matchup by a 44-34 final score in Baton Rouge. Both teams are 2-1 so far in 2021, with a road loss in each instance. Memphis topped Mississippi State last week, while UCLA knocked off LSU in the season opener.
Kickoff is set for noon ET. Caesars Sportsbook list the Tigers at -2.5 in the latest LSU vs. Mississippi State odds. The over-under for total points is set at 56. Before finalizing any Mississippi State vs. LSU picks, make sure you see the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters Week 4 of the 2021 season on a 72-58 run on all top-rated college football picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- LSU vs. Mississippi State spread: LSU -2.5
- LSU vs. Mississippi State over-under: 56.5 points
- LSU vs. Mississippi State money line: LSU -135, MSU +115
- LSU: The Tigers are 7-6 against the spread in the last 13 games
- MSU: The Bulldogs are 6-8 against the spread in the last 14 games
Why LSU can cover
The Tigers have been strong defensively this season, particularly in response to a shakier effort against UCLA to open the season. LSU is allowing fewer than 300 total yards per game, and the Tigers are giving up only 110 yards per game on the ground. That includes the Tigers limiting opponents to only 2.8 yards per carry for the season. Against the pass, LSU is also playing well, including a 58.7 percent completion rate allowed, and the Tigers are creating havoc with regularity. The defense has 17 sacks, comfortably leading the SEC, and there are individual standouts to lean on all over the defense.
Senior linebacker Damone Clark leads the SEC in solo tackles, with 19 stops on his own. Up front, sophomore defensive end BJ Ojulari leads the conference with 4.5 sacks in only three games. On the backend, junior cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. is questionable with a foot injury, but there is elite talent all over the place. LSU will have its hands full against Mississippi State's passing attack, but the Tigers are fully equipped.
Why Mississippi State can cover
Mississippi State's offense remains its strength, but the defense has been stout so far in 2021. The Bulldogs are holding opponents to 6.3 yards per pass attempt, and Mississippi State's opponents are completing only 57.8 percent of their passes. They have allowed only five touchdown passes, against four interceptions. Against the run, Mississippi State is also playing quite well, with the opposition averaging 3.0 yards per carry on the way to only 74 yards per game.
On the flip side, Mike Leach's team is still lighting up the scoreboard with the passing game. Mississippi State leads the SEC in passing offense, averaging 361 yards per game, and sophomore quarterback Will Rogers leads the SEC in completions (122) and completion rate (74.8 percent) with eight passing touchdowns in only three games. The Bulldogs enjoyed success in the 2020 matchup, and that could be replicated in the rematch.
How to make Mississippi State vs. LSU picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting 60 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in 60 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins LSU vs. Mississippi State? And which side of the spread hits in 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college football picks, and find out.