In one corner, No. 3 Michigan comes into Week 11 rated as the most efficient team in football and among the favorites to win the national championship. In the other, No. 10 Penn State is still licking its wounds weeks after suffering a crushing 20-12 loss to No 1 Ohio State.
Penn State opened as just a 4-point underdog at home against Michigan, but the line has already moved nearly 2 points; 60% of the public bet is on Michigan. Can you blame them? The Wolverines blasted the Nittany Lions 41-17 last season, so many are already flipping the calendar forward to the rivalry game against Ohio State.
But when Nittany Lions host Michigan on Saturday, they will have a little more in their pocket than the public seems to realize.
During last year's meeting, Michigan's offensive line took a tire iron to Penn State. The Wolverines rushed for 418 yards on a blistering 7.6 yards per carry. But through the first 10 weeks of the season, the battle in the trenches has quietly moved in Penn State's favor.
Despite playing a Charmin soft schedule through nine games, the Wolverines have fallen from 5.6 yards per carry to 4.6 yards per carry in 2023. Both running backs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards are also coming off injuries. Corum rushed for more than 100 yards in eight games a season ago; this year, the Wolverines have just one 100-yard rushing performance by any back.
Contrarily, Penn State boasts the No. 1 rushing and yards per carry defense in America heading into the weekend matchup. The Nittany Lions rank No. 4 nationally at 8.3 tackles for loss per game with 15 players sitting at three TFLs or more. Coach James Franklin points to improved gap responsibility as a young Penn State defense that was young last season gains experience.
"I think we're a little bit bigger," Penn State coach James Franklin told reporters. "I think the size has helped us as well. We're a little bigger across the front, specifically the D-Line, but not to where it's affected our ability to move."
Against Rutgers, likely the best team Michigan has played this season, Corum and Edwards combined for 110 yards on just 4.1 yards per carry as Michigan scored just 17 offensive points through three quarters. The duo combined for 218 yards and 6.2 yards per carry against the Scarlet Knights one year ago.
If Michigan is unable to run through the Nittany Lions in Happy Valley, the calculus of the game completely changes. Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy has played at an unbelievable level through the de-facto preseason, but Penn State presents a unique kind of defensive challenge with star talent at every level.
The Nittany Lions rank No. 1 nationally, allowing a success rate of just 35% on passing plays. Michigan has a success rate of more than 50% on passing plays, for comparison. Penn State has defenders at every level of the defense to help vs. the pass. Cornerback Kalen King, pass rusher Chop Robinson and linebacker Abdul Carter are all future first round picks. This defense is one of the most talented in all of college football.
McCarthy has been exceptional in the middle of the field, completing more than 80% of his passes and throwing 11 of his 18 touchdowns in the space. However, Penn State's linebackers and defensive backs are more prepared than most to take it away. While Michigan has blocked well enough, its three top offensive tackles have allowed 21 combined quarterback hurries and four sacks, more than Penn State's similar tackle unit has let up despite a schedule that included stout defenses in Ohio State and Iowa.
The Wolverines have some cracks.
Defensive coordinator Manny Diaz can exploit them.
Penn State's defense largely contained Ohio State's offense, limiting the Buckeyes to 1.9 yards per carry and 365 total yards. The trump card for Ohio State in a 20-12 victory was having Heisman hopeful wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., who was singlehandedly responsible for nearly half of Ohio State's offense. Michigan does not have that kind of playmaker. Penn State can take advantage.
Finding some offense
The biggest question facing Penn State is whether it can generate any points against a Michigan defense that statistically ranks among the best in the country. Michigan is strong everywhere, but the strength of the Wolverines comes in the middle. Linebackers Junior Colson and Michael Barrett rank among the best in the nation, while defensive tackle Kris Jenkins leads a deep attack in the middle. Penn State's interior line was unable to key up with Ohio State, and Michigan could prove an even tougher challenge in the middle. Penn State is averaging just 4.2 yards per carry on the ground, so standard running plays may not prove to be enough.
When Penn State played against Ohio State, offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich quickly abandoned the run and put the game on freshman quarterback Drew Allar's shoulders. Allar threw the ball 42 times compared to just 18 combined carries for running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Singleton and Allen were targeted only twice combined on screens, both of which fell incomplete.
But if Penn State's two best offensive players combine for just 20 total touches against Michigan, the Nittany Lions might get shut out. Instead, Yurcich needs to find ways to push the game to the edges. Running back Kaytron Allen is averaging 6.3 yards per attempt when running off tackle, per Pro Football Focus.
More than anything, Penn State needs to make the game manageable for Allar. Against Ohio State, the sophomore completed just 18 of 42 passes. Most damning: Penn State threw the ball 42 times. Penn State's offensive line will likely have issues against Michigan's front, but the Nittany Lions need to make the game easier for their former No. 1 quarterback recruit.
When Penn State pulled its lone upset of Ohio State in 2016, the Nittany Lions mucked up the game to keep things close. Then, a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown was enough to swing the game. Across the board, this Penn State squad is better than the 2016 version. If the offense can keep the Nittany Lions close enough, Penn State has a puncher's chance to pull off a college football-shaking upset.
