Picking college football games against the spread is a battle we are all destined to lose at some point. Even the sharpest sharps go cold and those stone-cold locks will break the other way when you are relying on the action of 18-to-22 year-olds exerting themselves physically over a 3-4 hour weekend window. Trends, intimate knowledge of the rosters, schemes and latest news can improve your shot at making winning picks, but sometimes you just have to follow your gut with these things.

Sometimes I'm right. I can also be wrong, of course, but I'm going to be here every Wednesday with picks against the spread for the entire SEC slate. Expect some ATS trends to sway my judgment as much as inside information or the old-fashioned hunch.

Last week: 4-2 | 2016 SEC season: 42-46 (47.7 percent)

LSU at Texas A&M (+6.5): Tune in for coaching rumors and discussions of "what could have been" in a strange Thanksgiving night SEC West tilt. We're still getting used to the "annual" part of this game's spot in the schedule, but Leonard Fournette planting an Aggie defender last season helps keep the matchup in the college football consciousness. The Aggies need a get-right win in the worst way, and if they don't get it, I think they can at least keep it within six points. Pick: Aggies +6.5

Arkansas at Missouri (+8): Arkansas and Missouri have been playing Big 12 games in the SEC in recent weeks, and given the current status of both defenses, I think you'll see another broken scoreboard in Columbia on Friday. While Drew Lock can hold serve for briefly, I think the Tigers are the team most likely to slip up and lose control of the game with running back Damarea Crockett suspended (marijuana arrest). When it's winning time, the Hogs have the better rushing attack with Rawleigh Williams and I think that seals a 10-14 point win. Pick: Razorbacks -8

Georgia Tech at Georgia (-4): Kirby Smart wants none of Paul Johnson right now. Georgia Tech was projected to finish near the bottom of the ACC Coastal, started 3-3 and then responded by knocking off Virginia Tech on the road during a 4-1 run that has the Yellow Jackets finishing the season with 7+ wins for the seventh time in nine seasons under CPJ. Georgia got its big win against Auburn and might sneak out of here with a field goal win, but I like the Yellow Jackets to cover. Pick: Yellow Jackets +4

Kentucky at Louisville (-26.5): Finally bowl eligible for the first time under Mark Stoops, Kentucky is fighting for its pride in what will likely be a one-sided affair with the Cardinals. Lamar Jackson and this entire Louisville offense doesn't want to finish their impressive campaign with another clunker. They will likely open up the offensive engine and let it roar against a porous Wildcats' defense. Pick: Cardinals -26.5.

Mississippi State at Ole Miss (-7.5): Since Ole Miss needs this win to be bowl eligible, I think that extra edge combines with home field advantage as reasons to feel confident in a Rebels win. But with a betting line hook on the other side of a touchdown, I'm going to side with the underdog. Nick Fitzgerald and this Bulldogs offense are averaging 29.5 points per game in their last four SEC contests and Ole Miss hasn't shown the kind of defensive prowess to suggest this won't be a high-scoring shootout. Pick: Bulldogs +7.5

Auburn at Alabama (-17.5): Do you think Alabama's slow start against Chattanooga actually made Nick Saban happy? I do. Sometimes you need a reason to start "coaching 'em up" when the players happen to be the best in the country. Auburn might be able to cover this spread thanks to the hook, but I think Alabama wins by 21+. Pick: Crimson Tide -17.5.

South Carolina at Clemson (-24): When Florida needed to cobble an offense together against South Carolina, Jim McElwain and Doug Nussmeier did so by picking on the Gamecocks' back seven, which proved to be very poor at tackling skill position players in space. I expect offensive coordinators Tony Elliott and Jeff Scott to exploit that same weakness with Deshaun Watson and an array of short passes that could quickly turn into long touchdown plays with one missed tackle. Pick: Tigers -24

Tennessee at Vanderbilt (+7.5): It's all about motivation. Vanderbilt is at home playing for bowl eligibility and Tennessee has already claimed the life champions' banner. Pick: Commodores +7.5

Florida at Florida State (-7): Dalvin Cook has 327 yards and two rushing touchdowns in two meetings (both wins) against the team he was committed to joining until he wasn't. Even when Florida's defense has been healthy, it's had trouble containing Cook and I think he's going to get plenty of touches in what might be his last game in the rivalry. Florida State wins, but I hate this line. At 7.5, I'd happily take the Gators and at 6.5 I'd lean Seminoles. It's a rivalry so let's hope for a push. Pick: Gators +7