Simulation: Alabama-Florida State BCS title game is 43 percent likely
PredictionMachine.com has simulated all the possible finishes to the season and estimates Alabama-Florida State as the most likely BCS title game.
Alabama and Florida State each have greater than a 60 percent chance of reaching the BCS title game, according to our friends at PredictionMachine.com.
Paul Bessire posted possible BCS title game matchups and each team's individual chances of reaching Pasadena, using the same simulation technology PredictionMachine.com contributes to the CBS Sports Expert Picks. Bessire lays out details of the scenarios over in the Prediction Machine blog, but here are some notable results from the simulations.
Chances of going undefeated
Alabama (65.2 percent)
Florida State (65.6 percent)
Baylor (36.9 percent)
Ohio State (48.4 percent)
Fresno State (67.6 percent)
Northern Illinois (23.7 percent)
Chances of BCS title game matchups (with simulated score)
Alabama vs. Florida State (42.7 percent)
-- Projected score: Alabama 27, Florida State 25
Baylor vs. Florida State (8.4 percent)
-- Projected score: Florida State 36, Baylor 33
Alabama vs. Baylor (8.3 percent)
-- Projected score: Alabama 37, Baylor 30
Ohio State vs. Florida State (7.0 percent)
-- Projected score: Florida State 33, Ohio State 25
Alabama vs. Ohio State (6.8 percent)
-- Projected score: Alabama 34, Ohio State 25
Baylor vs. Ohio State (2.1 percent)
-- Projected score: Baylor 39, Ohio State 35
So judging from what we see above, there is a good chance that there will be undefated teams left out of the BCS title game. With a 48.4 percent chance of finishing undefeated, Ohio State fans now have considerable interest in the underdogs of the SEC and ACC.
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