Saturday night in Austin is setting up to be one of the more important games of the Big 12 Championship Game race. No. 19 Texas is set to host No. 22 Iowa State in a critical battle even though neither team controls its own destiny. The matchup pairs the Big 12's hottest team vs. the one that loves to make things as interesting as possible. With so much at stake, and with such a small line, this one should be a nail-biter that goes down to the final possession.
Texas is coming off of an amazing win over Texas Tech last week when Lil'Jordan Pumphrey delivered a Michael Crabtree-esque touchdown in the final moments. Iowa State, meanwhile, outlasted Baylor in a slugfest. Let's take a look at each team's keys to winning on Saturday night.
Viewing information
Date: Saturday, Nov. 17 | Time: 8 p.m. ET
Location: Royal Texas Memorial Stadium -- Austin, Texas
TV: Longhorn Network | Live stream: WatchESPN
Storylines
Texas: The knock on the Longhorns in coach Tom Herman's first season is that they weren't able to win the close games. Well, the games are still pretty close this season, but the results have favored Texas this time around. The Horns have played in six straight games in which the final score was decided by six points or less and they are 4-2 in those games.
The key connection for Texas against Iowa State will be quarterback Sam Ehlinger and receiver Lil'Jordan Humphrey, who snagged the go-ahead touchdown in a win over Texas Tech in Week 10. Humphrey leads the team with 947 yards and seven touchdowns. However, Iowa State possesses the Big 12's best defense and one of its top passing defenses.
Iowa State: The Cyclones will play the first half of Saturday's game without star running back David Montgomery, who was ejected for fighting in last week's win over Baylor. It's a tough loss for 30 minutes since Montgomery is one of the Big 12's top running backs, but the Cyclones beat Oklahoma State earlier in the season without him, so it's not an insurmountable absence.
Overall, though, Iowa State has been the Big 12's hottest team since switching to quarterback Brock Purdy. The Cyclones have won five in a row and Purdy has thrown for more than 1,300 yards with 13 touchdowns to just two picks. Texas will have its hands full with or without Montgomery on the field.
Game prediction, picks
Texas isn't a good favorite under Herman while Iowa State has been a solid underdog pick. In any case, Texas' average point differential in the aforementioned last six games is +2.8. Couple that with Iowa State's reputation as a dog and the Cyclones plus the points seems like a safe pick. Pick: Iowa State +3.5
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