Here it is! The first look at our new reality.
It's ... awfully similar to the old reality, isn't it? The first three rounds especially ... just textbook. Really solid stuff, guys.
Consider this your first lesson in not overthinking things during this scaling back from 162 games to 60. Yes, the season is sure to play out differently, but more through the randomness of its outcomes than through ways we can actually forecast. In terms of player evaluations, not a whole lot actually changes, and I think these results bear it out.
But it did seem, on a more subtle level, that drafters weren't pursuing pitchers as hard, perhaps viewing them as the more volatile commodities over a shortened season. The most elite of them — like Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander — basically went where they always go, but the typical Round 3-4 rush after that was more like a Round 4-5 rush.
About the third tier of starting pitchers — the Zack Wheeler, Lance Lynn and Eduardo Rodriguez types — is when drafters lost interest in them altogether. It's like the drop-off came a tier earlier than it did when we were still presuming 162 games. The pitchers who we valued more for their volume than their ratios took the biggest hit, which makes sense in a categories league. It probably wouldn't hold as true in a points league, but that's a different subject for a different mock.
It's worth pointing out that Rich Hill, who I myself have determined to be the biggest riser with baseball starting up again, went higher than I've ever seen him go — the first pick of Round 12, 133rd overall. The word is out, my friends.
Here's who took part in this mock:
1) Scott White, CBS Sports (@CBSScottWhite)
2) Nate Atkins, Lansing State Journal (@NateAtkins_)
3) Michael Waterloo, The Athletic (@MichaelWaterloo)
4) Stan Son, Razzball (@Stan_Son)
5) B_Don, Razzball (@RazzBDon)
6) Frank Stampfl, CBS Sports (@Roto_Frank)
7) Nick Mimikos, Stack Attack podcast (@NMimi)
8) Mike Gianella, Baseball Prospectus (@MikeGianella)
9) Jesse Roche, Baseball Prospectus (@jaroche6)
10) Garrett Atkins, Fake Teams (@13atkins13)
11) R.J. White, CBS Sports (@rjwhite1)
12) Phil Ponebshek, Patton & Company