Billy Wagner's trip to the disabled list is a major loss for the Mets, not to mention his Fantasy owners. The Mets do have some options in their 'pen, from Joe Smith to Aaron Heilman to Scott Schoeneweis, each of whom has some track record of major league success. None of those options felt inspiring, at least to many Fantasy owners. When rumors circulated that the Mets would call up an untested but heralded Double-A pitcher and make him the replacement closer, that news was enough to put the phenom at the top of this week's National League Most Added list. Eddie Kunz is the hands-down Flavor of the Week.

Fantasy popularity could be short-lived for Kunz. Heilman actually got the first crack at filling Wagner's shoes, and it did not go well. Kunz may be in line for some save chances after all, but it's not clear that he is better suited to convert them than Heilman, Smith, Schoeneweis or Mr. Met. Kunz has pitched all of 48 1/3 innings at Double-A, where he has accumulated a staggering BB/9 rate of 4.7. It's hard to imagine the Mets sticking with a reliever with such limited experience and poor control, when they have several relievers who have lots of experience walking major league batters.

Despite his disastrous save chance on Tuesday, Heilman would seem to have as much of a shot to close as any of the candidates. Fantasy owners have sensed this and they have made him another of the top NL pickups this week. His chances for a rebound are considered below.

More guys in demand

Aaron Heilman, RP, New York Mets
Week 19 Ownership: 5 percent
Week 20 Ownership: 14 percent
Rank in NL Most Added: 8th (tied)
The Skinny: Can the Mets rely on Heilman to fill in for Wagner when he's been so shaky as a setup man? We can look for clues from his skill trends, but those will give you bed spins if you look at them for too long. He's a control pitcher, he's a strikeout pitcher, he's a dessert topping. It looked like Heilman was pitching more like his old self in June and July, but he has been horrid in his three August appearances. Though the potential is there for Heilman to be a decent closer, he is just too inconsistent. The problem is that if you are rostering Heilman in the first place, you are probably in an NL-only league where the other potential options, such as John Grabow, are equally unappetizing. All you can do is hold your nose and monitor the closer landscape for possible changes (save chances for Jon Rauch? Chris Perez closes full-time?).

Year Team BB/9 K/9 HR/9 H/BIP ERC
2006 N.Y. Mets 2.9 7.6 0.5 29% 2.76
2007 N.Y. Mets 2.1 6.6 0.8 26% 2.71
2008 N.Y. Mets 4.2 10.0 1.3 34% 5.19

Jeff Karstens, SP, Pittsburgh
Week 19 Ownership: 1 percent
Week 20 Ownership: 14 percent
Rank in NL Most Added: 5th
The Skinny: Shortly after Karstens completed his near-perfect game against the Diamondbacks on Wednesday, I received an e-mail that simply read, "How could NY not find a role for Karstens?". A lot of Fantasy owners must be wondering the same thing, because they are quickly finding a role for him on their squads. Starting your major league season with 15 scoreless innings over two starts is one way to get attention, but is it an indicator of future success? Looking at his minor league skill ratios, I'm inclined to say yes. Other than his first stop in Triple-A back in '06, he has excellent walk rates, good strikeout rates and home run rates ranging from decent to superb in every minor league campaign. Karstens has struggled to replicate his K/9 rate in the bigs, but with only 72 1/3 innings under his belt, we can't get too whipped up about that just yet.

Taking a flier on him could really pay off, but it might be best to activate him only against the weaker-hitting teams for starters. Lucky for you that he faces the offensively-challenged Reds and banged-up Mets next week. See how he does in these two tests before the Bucs send him out to face the Brew Crew in Week 21.

Year Team BB/9 K/9 HR/9 H/BIP ERC
2006 N.Y. Yankees 2.3 3.4 1.3 24% 3.42
2007 Scranton-Wilkes Barre (Triple-A) 2.6 7.8 0.6 N/A N/A
2008 Scranton-Wilkes Barre (Triple-A) 2.0 7.2 1.0 N/A N/A

Others drawing interest

Rank Player Week 19 ownership Week 20 ownership Percentage change
1 Eddie Kunz, RP, N.Y. Mets 0% 27% 27%
2 Clayton Kershaw, SP, L.A. Dodgers 43% 59% 16%
3 Jorge Campillo, SP, Atlanta 46% 61% 15%
4 Fernando Tatis, 3B/OF, N.Y. Mets 26% 40% 14%

The guys dropping like flies

Livan Hernandez, SP, Colorado
Week 19 Ownership: 42 percent
Week 20 Ownership: 30 percent
Rank in NL Most Dropped: 2nd
The Skinny: Elton John once sang, "Livan likes his money," but Livan also likes to pitch for his money, and the Rockies are now willing to pay him for his work. Yes, I know that was a different Levon; it only seems like Livan has been pitching since the early '70s. For most of his long career, his biggest weakness was his propensity for giving up homers. In his most successful years, Hernandez could compensate with good strikeout rates that kept his WHIP and ERA low, but those times are long gone. Coors Field isn't quite the home run haven it used to be, but Livan will need the extra-strength humidor to resuscitate his stats ... and his career. He is a desperation NL-only pickup at the very best.

Year Team BB/9 K/9 HR/9 H/BIP ERC
2006 Washington/Arizona 3.3 5.3 1.2 31% 4.97
2007 Arizona 3.5 4.0 1.5 31% 5.94
2008 Minnesota 1.9 3.5 1.2 35% 6.06

Others wearing roster repellant

Rank Player Week 19 ownership Week 20 ownership Percentage change
1 Micah Owings, SP, Arizona 42% 28% - 14%
3 Andre Ethier, OF, L.A. Dodgers 51% 41% - 10%
4 Ryan Franklin, RP, St. Louis 36% 27% - 9%
5 Jonathan O. Sanchez, SP, San Francisco 83% 76% - 7%
5 Johnny Cueto, SP, Cincinnati 83% 76% - 7%
5 Cody Ross, OF, Florida 43% 36% - 7%
Glossary
Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James
Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James
Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30%
Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth
Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks)
Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats

Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.