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With 20 weeks of Fantasy hoops in the review mirror, the finish line to the season is well within sight. We're still a month away from the true end, but that isn't the case for everyone reading this. Some of you may have watched your season end weeks ago with an early elimination from playoff contention, while others may be staring the end in the face if things don't go right in Week 21 (March 16-22).
Still others of you will fight through the playoffs, running through multiple contenders for the crown before succumbing in the final push. With so much at stake, every small difference is magnified, especially when it comes to the schedule.
With the majority of playoff matchups beginning either this week or next, Weeks 21-24 are the most important of the season. And, with such a condensed period of time defining so much of your fate, the small differences in the schedule each week are magnified. Here is a combined schedule analysis for the next four weeks:
Rest-of-the-way schedule
(A higher strength-of-schedule ranking is a good thing, based on points allowed this season)
Hawks: 14 games, 20th in strength of schedule
Celtics: 15 games, 17th
in strength of schedule
Nets: 16 games, 18th in strength of schedule
Hornets:
16 games, 11th in strength of schedule
Bulls: 12 games, 27th in
strength of schedule
Cavaliers: 12 games, 30th in strength of schedule
Mavericks:
13 games, 12th in strength of schedule
Nuggets: 13 games, 24th in
strength of schedule
Pistons: 14 games, 29th in strength of schedule
Warriors:
15 games, 19th in strength of schedule
Rockets: 14 games, 7th in
strength of schedule
Pacers: 15 games, 13th in strength of schedule
Clippers:
13 games, 10th in strength of schedule
Lakers: 15 games, 2nd in
strength of schedule
Grizzlies: 14 games, 14th in strength of schedule
Heat:
15 games, 21st in strength of schedule
Bucks: 14 games, 25th in
strength of schedule
Timberwolves: 15 games, 6th in strength of
schedule
Pelicans: 14 games, 3rd in strength of schedule
Knicks:
14 games, 15th in strength of schedule
Thunder: 14 games, 17th in
strength of schedule
Magic: 12 games, 22nd in strength of schedule
76ers:
14 games, 5th in strength of schedule
Suns: 13 games, 28th in
strength of schedule
Trail Blazers: 16 games, 6th in strength of
schedule
Kings: 15 games, 16th in strength of schedule
Spurs: 16
games, 4th in strength of schedule
Raptors: 14 games, 8th in strength
of schedule
Jazz: 15 games, 1st in strength of schedule
Wizards:
14 games, 26th in strength of schedule
The biggest takeaways should be the schedules of the Bulls, Cavaliers and Magic, who play just 12 times in the next four weeks. You may notice those teams aren't exactly stocked with nobodies, so the schedule disparity is even more pronounced than it might be if, say, the Nets had just 12 games on the way.
The Nets have 16 games in this time frame, and they allow us to demonstrate just how much the schedule can impact things. Joe Johnson is stuck in a deep slump, averaging just 18.8 Fantasy points per game over the last five. If he were to keep that average up for the next 16 games, he would accumulate right around 300 Fantasy points in Weeks 21-24; Tobias Harris would be expected to put up right around 340 in the same span, based on his recent play. That isn't a big gap, despite how much better Harris has been on a per-game basis.
At least with the Bulls, you can feel pretty comfortable that, barring injury, Tom Thibodeau is going to get 12 games out of his key players. The Cavaliers have already shown a willingness to give their stars strategic rest if they need it, so you might not even get the full 12 games from LeBron James, Kyrie Irving or Kevin Love. The Magic have also had inconsistent rotations at times lately, and some of their biggest names for Fantasy have questions about either production or health swirling around them.
The schedule also would limit the impact the return of injured Bulls' stars like Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler. If you are stashing one hoping they can make it back and can make an impact, keep an eye on the number of games you'll be getting from them, compared to some of the options on waivers.
The schedule can't define everything you do down the stretch, especially not if you have stars like LeBron, Nikola Vucevic or Pau Gasol around. They're going to get their numbers, and will be far better than any potential pieces you might be able to get instead.
However, for the role players in Chicago, Orlando or Cleveland who have helped you out this season, the replacement level is much lower. You might have to dump them if you want to get the most out of your roster spots.
Guard
Start 'Em
Alexey Shved, Knicks (31 percent started)
If he had
enough minutes to qualify, Alexey Shved
would rank 20th in the league in PER right now, tied with Damian Lillard. I don't know what to do with that information, but I
know it scares me. Shved has been very, very good for the Knicks of
late, averaging 16.6 points, 6.2 rebounds and 4.4 assists per game,
while nailing 2.2 3-pointers per game and getting to the free-throw line
5.4 times. With Langston Galloway
slumping badly after a decent start, Shved has filled in very capably as
the resident "Fantasy Relevant Knick You Don't Feel Good About Having On
Your Team," but he probably has higher upside than Galloway ever did
anyways. As strange as it is to say, Shved is very strong starting
option at this point, given the amount of minutes he is getting.
I
would start Shved over ... Jordan Clarkson,
Tony Parker, Rajon Rondo
Kemba Walker, Hornets (33 percent started)
Walker was
predictably worked back into the rotation slowly upon his return from
knee surgery, but he showed the skills that can make him an elite
Fantasy option even while shaking off the rust. Walker played just 16
minutes Wednesday, but that number bumped up to 28 Friday, and he
flirted with a triple-double despite shooting the ball very poorly. He
has been given the green light to find his shot, and should take back
most of the ball-handling duties from Mo Williams
from this point on. Charlotte opens up with a tough matchup against the
Jazz Monday, but things get a bit better from then on. The only concern
I can see is if Walker is given a chance to rest on the second night of
a back-to-back Tuesday. Even so, he was a no-doubt must-start candidate
before the injury, and should be viewed as one before long. His upside
makes him worth starting even with some questions.
I would start
Walker over ... Elfrid Payton, Patrick Beverley, Jarrett Jack
Ray McCallum Jr., Kings (14 percent started)
McCallum isn't
putting up massive numbers, but he is starting to figure things out in
coach George Karl's offense. McCallum averaged just 4.9 assists per-36
in his first eight starts, but has taken on more of a play-making role
of late, upping that rate to 8.2 over the last five. He is averaging
26.4 Fantasy points per game in that span, and seems to be doing well in
the fast-paced offense the Kings are running now. They have some tough
matchups on the way, but McCallum makes for a solid low-end fill-in with
the way he is playing, if you need one.
I would start McCallum
over ... Marcus Smart, Trey Burke, Dion Waiters
Bust Alert
Mo Williams, Hornets (74 percent started)
Williams has
been a tremendous find for the Hornets and Fantasy players, as he has
been one of the most productive guards in the league since landing in
Charlotte. The only guards to average more Fantasy points than Williams
since the All-Star break are Russell Westbrook,
Chris Paul, Stephen Curry, James Harden and John Wall; he has truly lived in rarified air. However, you always
knew a time would come when his role would diminish and he would take a
step back, with Kemba Walker's return
looming. Williams still had 37 Fantasy points in Walker's first game
back last Wednesday, but fell to 21 Friday with Walker taking on a
larger share of the ball-handling duties. Williams should remain very
useful for players in category-based leagues for his shooting, but
Walker's return will likely sap his playmaking contributions, which
should lead to much more run-of-the-mill production in H2H formats. With
so many teams playing four times this week and so many good guards out
there, he may be just a borderline option right now.
Forward
Start 'Em
Khris Middleton, Bucks (79 percent started)
Middleton
has been a useful contributor in category-based leagues for months, but
he has reached the point where there is no reason for him not to be
starting in all formats as well. Jason Kidd's rotations have settled
down a bit, with Middleton averaging 36.4 minutes per game since the
All-Star break, after fluctuating between 21.8 and 30.7 in the months
before the break. Middleton is contributing 29.2 Fantasy points per game
since the break, and has only seen his role grow in March, where he has
30.6 Fantasy points in 38.2 minutes. The Bucks desperately need his
shooting and defense on the wing, and there is no reason to have
Middleton on your bench at this point.
I would start Middleton
over ... Giannis Antetokounmpo, Chandler Parsons, DeMar DeRozan
Robert Covington, 76ers (39 percent started)
Since the
end of February, it looks like Covington's role might be reduced; he
topped 25 minutes just three times in a 10-game stretch that included a
two-game absence due to an elbow injury. That injury might be the reason
behind his limited minutes, but his production has still been solid of
late; he is averaging 12.6 points, 1.6 steals and 2.2 3-pointers per
game over his last five, in just 24 minutes per game. He has played 29
minutes in two of the last four games, so hopefully that is a sign that
he is going to return to a larger role moving forward. Covington has
been a revelation for the 76ers, and I like betting on him to figure
things out this week, with some of the worst defenses in the league on
the schedule.
I would start Covington over ... Wilson Chandler, J.R. Smith, Luol Deng
Jae Crowder, Celtics (24 percent started)
In H2H scoring
leagues, Crowder doesn't really have much appeal, given his relatively
low scoring and assist volume. However, what he fails to contribute in
volume, he makes for in the breadth of his skills; he is a rare player
who can help you a little bit everywhere without hurting you too much in
any one place. The Celtics have a pretty good schedule for Week 21, with
two teams in the top-7 in pace on the way. You'll never get huge numbers
from Crowder, but he finds ways to contribute anyways, and there is
value in that.
I would start Crowder over ... Marcus Morris, Trevor Ariza, Tony Snell
Bust Alert
Terrence Jones, Rockets (74 percent started)
A nerve
issue kept him from really living up to it for the first half of the
season, but Jones has been everything his potential suggested since the
All-Star break. He is shooting 53.3 percent from the field and averaging
15.4 points, 9.8 rebounds, 2.1 blocks and 0.8 steals per game since the
break, and has been the best member of the Rockets' three-headed,
interchangeable frontcourt monster. However, consistency has been an
issue of late; he had games with seven and 11 points sandwiched around a
17-point, 12-rebound double-double last week. When he is rolling, Jones
can be a tremendous help, but the Rockets' schedule might not be
terribly conducive this week, as they are one of just four teams with
three games on the way. Though the matchups are all incredible, if you
have comparable option with four games on the way, Jones is probably
better left on your bench.
Center
Start 'Em
Rudy Gobert, Jazz (74 percent started)
Somehow, Gobert
is not starting in 26 percent of CBSSports.com leagues, and I honestly
have no idea how to make sense of that. He makes his money in
category-based leagues, where he may be playing better than anyone at
the position of late, but still ranks 10th in the league in Fantasy
points per game at the center position since the All-Star break. He has
been racking up huge rebounding numbers, scoring in double figures on a
regular basis, dishing out a decent number of assists and blocking every
shot his way, but is still starting in fewer leagues than Brook Lopez. Right this wrong this instance. I'm not going to mention
him again in this space because if you're still sleeping on Gobert,
nobody can help you.
I would start Gobert over ... Mason Plumlee, Jordan Hill, Donatas Motiejunas
Hassan Whiteside, Heat (66 percent started)
I realize
it's basically impossible to trust Whiteside at this point, given his
diminished role and inability to stay on the floor. He hasn't topped 25
minutes played in any of the Heat's last five, and missed two of those
with an ankle injury and then a suspension. However, he has still been
mostly productive in that time, racking up 26 points, 23 rebounds and
four blocks in just 66 minutes of action. The Heat are starting to slide
down the Eastern Conference ranks and are desperate to make the
playoffs, so it's hard to imagine Erik Spoelstra going away from by far
his most productive big man as long as he proves he can keep himself on
the floor. I'll bet on Whiteside's talent winning out, even with the
questions swirling around him right now.
I would start Whiteside
over ... Marcin Gortat, Joakim Noah, Tyson Chandler
Bust Alert
Joakim Noah, Bulls (82 percent started)
Noah's
rebounding and scoring still aren't where they need to be, but he is
dishing out assists like it is 2014 again, which is a good sign. He is
averaging 25.0 Fantasy points per game over the last five, which is a
solid number for a starting center, but less so when it comes over the
course of just three games. Especially so when one of those three games
comes against a Pacers team that still ranks among the best in the
league on defense, because one bad game could ruin his week with so
little time make up for it. Noah is still going to be useful down the
stretch, but you'll want to keep a closer on matchups than you otherwise
might have.
Schedule preview
(A higher strength-of-schedule ranking is a good thing, based on points allowed this season)
Hawks: Four games, 7th in strength of schedule
Celtics: Four games,
12th in strength of schedule
Nets: Four games, 22nd in strength of
schedule
Hornets: Four games, 3rd in strength of schedule
Bulls:
Three games, 26th in strength of schedule
Cavaliers: Four games, 30th
in strength of schedule
Mavericks: Four games, 7th in strength of
schedule
Nuggets: Four games, 22nd in strength of schedule
Pistons:
Four games, 15th in strength of schedule
Warriors: Four games, 25th
in strength of schedule
Rockets: Three games, 4th in strength of
schedule
Pacers: Four games, 14th in strength of schedule
Clippers:
Four games, 20th in strength of schedule
Lakers: Three games, 28th in
strength of schedule
Grizzlies: Four games, 6th in strength of
schedule
Heat: Four games, 12th in strength of schedule
Bucks:
Four games, 22nd in strength of schedule
Timberwolves: Four games,
10th in strength of schedule
Pelicans: Four games, 11th in strength
of schedule
Knicks: Four games, 2nd in strength of schedule
Thunder:
Four games, 19th in strength of schedule
Magic: Four games, 5th in
strength of schedule
76ers: Four games, 1st in strength of schedule
Suns:
Three games, 21st in strength of schedule
Trail Blazers: Four games,
27th in strength of schedule
Kings: Four games, 28th in strength of
schedule
Spurs: Four games, 17th in strength of schedule
Raptors:
Four games, 9th in strength of schedule
Jazz: Four games, 17th in
strength of schedule
Wizards: Four games, 15th in strength of schedule
Waiver-wire
Add these players
Kelly Olynyk, C, Celtics (56 percent owned), worth $5 FAAB
Olynyk
is still being worked back into the rotation very slowly, as he hasn't
topped 21 minutes in any game since coming back from an ankle injury.
Still, he had 38 points, 13 rebounds, five assists, five steals and six
3-pointers in a three-game stretch last week before stumbling Saturday
on the second night of a back-to-back. He should start to see his
minutes increase moving forward, and his unique all-around skill set
should make him a very useful Fantasy contributor when that happens.
Beat the rush, because he could end up a big waiver-wire pickup down the
stretch.
Jordan Clarkson, G, Lakers (67 percent owned), worth $5 FAAB
I'm
a believer in Clarkson, even if Byron Scott continues to do everything
in his power to make Fantasy players crazy. Clarkson has emerged as
arguably the only bright spot on this Lakers' roster, so of course
Scott's endless tinkering appears destined to leave Clarkson in a bench
role down the stretch. As frustrating as that news is, it's not like
Clarkson is going to disappear; Jeremy Lin
is still averaging nearly 28 minutes per game over the last 10 off the
bench. Even Scott has to know that Clarkson is more a part of this
team's long-term plans than Lin, so I would be very surprised if
Clarkson ends up benched. Clarkson has very productive since the
All-Star break, averaging 14.6 points, 4.0 rebounds and 4.4 assists per
game in 29.8 minutes, and I would expect that to continue no matter what
his role is to begin the game.
Rodney Hood, G, Jazz (10 percent owned), worth $2 FAAB bid
With
Gobert and Favors stepping into such large roles, the Jazz are going to
need to find shooting from somewhere, and Hood could be the answer.
Persistent foot injuries have limited him to just 36 games so far, but
he has shown the ability to stretch the floor even with inconsistent
playing time. Since returning from his latest issue after the All-Star
break, Hood is shooting 45.5 percent from 3-point range, averaging 9.6
points per game in just 20.7 minutes. His strong play has earned him a
much larger role of late, with Hood attempting at least 10 shots in each
of the last three games. You shouldn't expect much from him as far as
filling up the box score goes, but if you need shooting in a
category-based league, he should be able to help you out as one of the
few high-volume gunners available on this roster.
Droppable players
Paul George, F, Pacers (82 percent owned)
Optimism about
George's chances to come back and make a big impact for the Pacers was
always misplaced, given the length of his absence and timing of his
return. However, he could still come back in a much-diminished role for
the final month of the season and help out, especially with shooting and
defense. Talk of a mid-March return fueled Fantasy owners to add George
in droves, but the last few days have given us plenty of reason to doubt
whether he will even return to the floor in a meaningful role. According
to the Indianapolis Star, George hasn't looked back to full
strength in practice, with one teammate expressing skepticism about a
return this year and noting he is "not even close to 100 percent." If
you can afford the roster spot, George might be worth holding on to, but
it's a lot harder to envision him actually helping out today than it was
a week ago.
Nikola Mirotic, F, Bulls (87 percent owned)
I'm not
necessarily saying you should drop Mirotic right now, because he is
still throwing up double-digit scoring games on a regular basis while
filling up the box score well. However, given the Bulls' schedule and
the looming return of Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson, at some point, this is going to come to an end. The
question is, when. He should continue to be useful through this week,
but he is an excellent sell-high candidate if your league still allows
trades. Mirotic has proven himself worthy of a roster spot whenever he
gets minutes, but those might be tough to come by in the final few weeks
of the season. It would be a tough decision, but with Jimmy Butler potentially beating his three-week timetable, Mirotic
could see his role greatly diminished soon. He remains a must-own in
10-team or deeper leagues, but don't hold onto him for too long if his
minutes start slipping.
