2016 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: ADP Review -- Week 1

Using Average Draft Position data is a great tool in your Fantasy Football draft prep. Jamey Eisenberg breaks down the current ADP data before the real action starts in most leagues.

Using Average Draft Position data is a great tool to help you prepare for your actual Fantasy draft. It gives you an idea of where players are being selected, and you can determine if someone is going too high and you want to stay away or too low, which means you can wait on a potential steal.

We will be going over ADP Data from CBS Sports every week until the start of the season, and you can follow along with the trends here. For our first edition, the data is mostly from mock drafts done leading up to the start of training camp, so it could look a little odd.

For example, Le'Veon Bell is not going to be drafted at No. 4 overall after his four-game suspension. And injured players like Jordy Nelson (No. 11 overall), Sammy Watkins (No. 21 overall) and Tyler Eifert (No. 4 tight end at No. 59 overall) will definitely see a change in their ADP once most real drafts start taking place.

But this is a good starting point for us to see what players are rising and falling in the majority of leagues. And it should help you on Draft Day later in August or early September when it actually counts.

First-round review

Here's what the first-round looks like based on ADP:

1. Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers
2. Todd Gurley, RB, Rams
3. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings
4. Le'Veon Bell, RB, Steelers
5. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots
6. Odell Beckham, WR, Giants
7. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons
8. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys
9. David Johnson, RB, Cardinals
10. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans
11. Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers
12. Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons

Aside from Bell at No. 4, some things that stand out are Gurley and Peterson being drafted ahead of Beckham and Jones. I can understand Fantasy owners stuck in their ways of drafting running backs ahead of receivers, but there's just as much upside with Beckham and Jones, and they're safer than Gurley and Peterson.

I would draft Johnson ahead of Elliott, but the appeal of the Cowboys rookie is high given his role in Dallas as a featured rusher. I have Johnson and Elliott ranked ahead of Peterson this season given his age and career workload.

Nelson is worth consideration in Round 1 if he's 100 percent healthy, but he's still dealing with knee issues after last year's torn ACL. He should be drafted in Round 2, and I'd rather see A.J. Green in the first round (he's No. 16 overall).

And I don't want any part of Freeman in the first round, even in PPR leagues (this ADP data accounts for both formats combined). He was great last season as the No. 1 running back, but he should see a decline in production, making him a safer pick toward the end of Round 2 in most leagues.

Quarterbacks

Quarterback is such a deep position that it pays to wait if you're not inclined to draft a stud like Cam Newton (No. 27 overall), Aaron Rodgers (No. 32), Andrew Luck (No. 40), Russell Wilson (No. 51) or Drew Brees (No. 63). Even those guys are great value, but I expect their ADP to rise based on how Fantasy owners typically draft quarterbacks.

But here are the quarterbacks you can draft after Round 10 in a 12-team league: Jameis Winston (No. 126), Philip Rivers (No. 127), Eli Manning (No. 128), Derek Carr (No. 141) and Matthew Stafford (No. 145). I'd be content with any of these guys as starters, especially Rivers and Manning, and there are plenty of other quality options in that range.

Rivers has been a top-12 quarterback each of the past three seasons, and he was No. 3 in 2013, which was the last time he had Ken Whisenhunt as his offensive coordinator. He was on pace for a monster season last year before Keenan Allen injured his kidney in Week 8 and was lost for the year, but hopefully Allen will play all 16 games in 2016. It hurts that Steve Johnson (knee) could be out for the season, but the Chargers receiving corps is still solid with Allen, Travis Benjamin, Antonio Gates and Danny Woodhead as the top options. I like Rivers as a top-10 Fantasy quarterback, and he's a steal in Round 11 as the No. 12 quarterback off the board.

Bortles was awesome last season as the No. 4 Fantasy quarterback, but I'm expecting some regression this year because the Jaguars should have an improved running game and defense. There's no way I would draft Bortles at No. 78 overall, which is his ADP. He's being drafted as the No. 7 quarterback, which is ahead of Carson Palmer and even Tom Brady, and that's a risk. The majority of Bortles' production last season came when the Jaguars were playing from behind (29 touchdowns and 429 of his 606 pass attempts). Now, he can easily play just as well with a lead, and Jacksonville's defense and run game can once again struggle. But while I expect Bortles to improve as a quarterback with a higher completion percentage and fewer interceptions, I also expect a downturn with his stats. He's a much safer pick behind guys like Rivers and Manning.

Running backs

The running backs who could be the biggest difference makers this season are the ones being drafted in the range of Rounds 4-7. This group includes Matt Forte (No. 39 overall), Ryan Mathews (No. 40), DeMarco Murray (No. 45), Matt Jones (No. 46), Jonathan Stewart (No. 50), Dion Lewis (No. 51), Melvin Gordon (No. 58), Ameer Abdullah (No. 60), Duke Johnson (No. 62), Chris Ivory (No. 63), Giovani Bernard (No. 70), Danny Woodhead (No. 71) and Frank Gore (No. 73).

If you draft receivers early then this is the group you're looking at, and hopefully several of them hit it big this year. The guys I'm targeting, depending on the format, include Mathews, Jones, Lewis, Gordon, Abdullah, Johnson, Bernard, Woodhead and Gore. I'm comfortable starting any combination of these guys, along with two being key reserves.

It's risky to trust this group, but if you want to avoid the early-round running backs and load up on receivers, then these guys could be the key to your Fantasy success in 2016.

Gore didn't help a lot of Fantasy owners last season, but he was the No. 12 running back in standard leagues by default. It didn't help that Luck missed nine games due to injury, and the entire offense fell apart. He's old (33) and clearly on his last NFL legs, but he should still be the primary running back for the Colts this year. And it's easy to handcuff him with a late-round pick in Josh Ferguson. But there's little risk involved in drafting Gore in Round 7, especially if he's your No. 3 running back. If he hits with the Colts offense expected to rebound behind a healthy Luck then your Fantasy team should be in great shape.

I don't have a problem taking a chance on Langford this season, but it has to be at the right price. And No. 46 overall is definitely the wrong price, especially since he could be in a timeshare with rookie Jordan Howard. In fact, I'd rather wait for Howard at No. 111 overall based on value. Langford played well in place of an injured Forte last season with his Fantasy production, but he needs to perform better on the field. And the Bears are pushing the idea, rightfully so, of using a committee, which could also include Ka'Deem Carey. Langford should open the season as the starter, and he's a good pick in Round 7 -- after Gore. But if you draft him in Round 4 then you're going to be disappointed because that's too high for Langford this year.

Wide receivers

Fantasy owners are gravitating toward receivers this year, which makes sense given the fallout for running backs in 2015 and the potential of so many stud pass catchers. There are 15 receivers being selected in the first 30 overall picks, which is two more than running backs over that span. And five receivers are being drafted in the first round (Brown, Beckham, Jones, Hopkins and Nelson), and I wouldn't be surprised if Dez Bryant and Green ended up there as well.

But just because receivers are coming off the board early doesn't mean that there aren't bargains with mid- to late-round picks. Some of my favorites include Golden Tate (No. 62 overall), Jarvis Landry (No. 64), John Brown (No. 66), Eric Decker (No. 68), DeVante Parker (No. 74), Kevin White (No. 78), Sterling Shepard (No. 85), Tyler Lockett (No. 102) and Donte Moncrief (No. 104). We'll also see Josh Gordon (No. 178) rise dramatically now that his indefinite suspension has been lifted and he'll miss only four games this year.

Moncrief might be the biggest steal of the draft if he continues to be selected in Round 9. He's entering his third season and will be the starter opposite T.Y. Hilton this year. Last year, Moncrief scored five touchdowns in the seven games he played with Luck, and the Colts have to replace 162 targets from last season with Coby Fleener and Andre Johnson gone. I have Moncrief ranked as a top-24 receiver this season, but he's the No. 41 receiver coming off the board. The longer you can wait, the better off you'll be, but don't hesitate to draft Moncrief as early as Round 5 in the majority of leagues.

Fitzgerald was amazing last season as the No. 11 Fantasy receiver in standard leagues, but his stats tailed off when Michael Floyd and Brown were both healthy. Fitzgerald had 35 catches for 490 yards and six touchdowns when Floyd was limited with a hand injury in the first five games of the season. Fitzgerald then scored just once in his next eight games when Floyd appeared to be back at 100 percent, with two games with double digits in Fantasy points over that span. He's still worth drafting as a high-end No. 3 Fantasy receiver, especially in PPR leagues, but he's overrated as the No. 22 receiver in Round 5 at No. 54 overall. He's being drafted after Floyd, which is great, but he's going ahead of Brown, which is a mistake.

Tight ends

Gronkowski is going to be the first tight end drafted, and his ADP at No. 5 overall is fine. I'd prefer to draft him later in Round 1, but it's doubtful he's going to fall into Round 2 in the majority of leagues.

After Gronkowski, the next tight end off the board is Jordan Reed at No. 43 overall, followed by Greg Olsen at No. 54. Again, that's about right for both players, and Reed could be a steal in Round 4 if he plays at least 14 games this season.

If you wait on tight end, you should be in great shape with guys like Fleener (No. 86 overall), Zach Ertz (No. 110), Ladarius Green (No. 118) and Antonio Gates (No. 146). One of my favorite tight ends this year, Dwayne Allen, hasn't even registered an ADP yet, so he's amazing value as the starting tight end for the Colts with a late-round pick.

Green is on the PUP list with an ankle injury, which is troublesome given his injury history, but if he's healthy for Week 1 then you're going to be thrilled to draft him in Round 10. We've been waiting for him to get a full-time starting job, and we got a glimpse of his potential last year when he started three games for the suspended Gates in San Diego. He had 14 catches for 184 yards and two touchdowns over that span, which projects to 75 catches, 981 yards and 11 touchdowns over 16 games. He has that kind of upside with the Steelers, who need to replace the retired Heath Miller and the suspended Martavis Bryant. This could be a huge year for Green in 2016.

Barnidge was the No. 2 tight end in standard leagues last season, and he could easily finish as a Top 10 tight end again this year. But the Browns offense will look dramatically different in 2016 with a new system, quarterback and talent around Barnidge. Coach Hue Jackson did a good job with Eifert last season as the offensive coordinator in Cincinnati, but Robert Griffin III doesn't have a good track record relying on his tight ends. And with Gordon back and the addition of a slew of rookie receivers, highlighted by first-round pick Corey Coleman, means more targets to spread around in Cleveland, including to running back Duke Johnson. It's not a huge mistake to draft Barnidge as a starting tight end, even in Round 9 at No. 103 overall. But he's being drafted as the No. 8 tight end ahead of Ertz, Green and Gates, which is a mistake.