The Buffalo Bills will have a completely different wide receiver room in 2024 than they had in 2023 and during previous editions of the Josh Allen offense. They put what could be the final touch on the wide receiver corps Tuesday when they signed Marquez Valdes-Scantling to the roster. With both Stefon Diggs (traded) and Gabe Davis (signed by the Jaguars) off the roster, Fantasy Football managers are left to ponder how the target share will shake out and which players to get most excited about. Make no mistake about it, the Bills passing game is one that Fantasy managers will be looking to get shares of -- so let's try to unpack which receivers will return the most value.
Vacated targets
Between Diggs and Davis, the Bills are losing 241 targets from the 2023 season. Diggs was targeted 160 times and Davis 81 times last season. Out of the wide receiver corps, Diggs and Davis accounted for 73% of the Bills' total wide receiver targets in 2023. Rookie first-round pick Dalton Kincaid was second on the team with 91 targets and saw an expanded role down the stretch starting with an 11-target game in Week 9.
Even before Diggs was traded to Houston, a clear changing of the guard was underway in Buffalo. During his final 10 games with the Bills (including playoffs), Diggs had just 422 receiving yards, one touchdown, a 58% catch rate and just 5.5 yards per target.
Current WR corps
With the addition of Valdes-Scantling, it's clear the Bills have made it a point to add size to their receiver room. Valdes-Scantling checks in at 6-4 and they've also added Mack Hollins (6-4), Chase Claypool (6-4), rookie second-round pick Keon Coleman (6-3) and Kincaid (6-4) in recent seasons. Their roster now has a better mix of speed/elusiveness and size with Khalil Shakir returning and the addition of Curtis Samuel in free agency.
Valdes-Scantling will likely compete with Hollins, Claypool and Coleman for an outside boundary receiver role, but the Bills could look to blur the traditional receiver role lines with tight splits out of condensed formations under offensive coordinator Joe Brady. This could get Samuel on the field at the same time as Shakir, for example. The depth chart remains open-ended at receiver with regards to who will be on the field and when given the fact that the Bills can also still lean on 12 personnel with Kincaid and Dawson Knox on the field at the same time.
Valdes-Scantling projects as more of a best ball Fantasy option -- with production hard to predict on a week to week basis. Shakir had some early hype before the offseason, but his role got murkier with the addition of Samuel in free agency and even more uncertain after the team invested major draft capital in Coleman.
Speaking of Coleman, the rookie has received the most buzz and hype since the draft outside of Kincaid. Fantasy managers are betting on upside of the unknown with Coleman, but a crowded receiver corps and a more run-heavy play caller than the Bills have had over the last two iterations of the offense (Brian Daboll, Ken Dorsey) caps his upside. It's not as a simple as it seems even if he may be the most talented receiver in a Josh Allen offense.
Kincaid season?
The second-year tight end is a popular breakout candidate in 2024 and the highest-drafted Bills skill player. Kincaid's role should be secure despite the crowded receiver corps and he will continue to eat into Knox's role. Given his first-round draft capital, his impressive scouting profile and another offseason to develop his rapport with Allen, Kincaid has a case to be the TE1 in Fantasy in 2024. He nearly topped 100 targets as a rookie despite not playing the snap share we project in 2024 and having both Diggs and Davis in the offense. Kincaid could project to see upwards of 120 targets in a true breakout campaign. The speed and size the Bills added around Kincaid -- specifically the addition of Valdes-Scantling -- could open up the interemediate middle of the field for Kincaid to do his damage. I'm bullish on the second-year TE and currently rank him as my TE2 heading into 2024.
