We've already given you a look at some early sleepers and breakouts for the upcoming season, so now let's complete the trifecta.
What I looked for in compiling this list were players who finished 2013 in the Top 24 at their respective positions, which made them starting options in 12-team leagues. These are players who I expect to falter this year, whether due to changing teams, a coaching change or a change in personnel around them.
Last year, some of the biggest busts based on their draft value were Colin Kaepernick, Robert Griffin III, C.J. Spiller, Ray Rice, Trent Richardson, Stevan Ridley, Victor Cruz, Dwayne Bowe, Marques Colston, Antonio Gates and Jared Cook. Arian Foster, Doug Martin, Julio Jones, Randall Cobb and Rob Gronkowski were also disappointments, but injuries played a significant role in their struggles.
The NFL Draft will change what happens with some of these players, but these are guys I would avoid in most leagues this season based on where they will likely be drafted.
Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals
Dalton finished as the No. 3
Fantasy quarterback last year in standard leagues with 4,296 passing
yards, 33 touchdowns and 20 interceptions and 183 rushing yards and two
touchdowns. But I'm expecting him to regress this season and not finish
among the Top 12 quarterbacks. For starters, Dalton is wildly
inconsistent. He had just seven games with more than 20 Fantasy points,
and he didn't reach that mark until Week 6. While he closed the season
with a flurry with at least 23 Fantasy points in his final four games,
the change in offensive coordinator from Jay Gruden to Hue Jackson will
impact Dalton's outlook. The Bengals official team website reports that
Jackson will likely limit Dalton's pass attempts, which were at 37 a
game last season, to possibly closer to 25. We don't know if that's
possible, but clearly fewer attempts mean lesser production, even with a
quality receiving corps led by A.J. Green.
Dalton should still be viewed as a high-end No. 2 Fantasy passer, but
don't expect him to repeat his 2013 success and finish as a Top 5
quarterback. He's only worth drafting with a late-round pick in the
majority of leagues.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No.
150-155 overall
I'd rather have: Jay Cutler, Ben Roethlisberger, Robert Griffin III
Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers
Like Dalton, Rivers was a
surprise in 2013, finishing as a Top 5 quarterback. He came in at No. 4
with 4,478 passing yards, 32 touchdowns and 11 interceptions and 72
rushing yards. Like Dalton, I don't expect Rivers to have a repeat
performance. Along with several other quarterbacks pushing Rivers out of
the Top 12 next season, he was too inconsistent to trust last year. He
had eight games with 20-plus Fantasy points but just four in his final
11 games. The better San Diego was running the ball, the worse it was
for Rivers, who attempted more than 30 passes only five times in his
final 10 games. He should continue to be a solid No. 2 Fantasy
quarterback and a great spot starter, but it's highly unlikely he'll
repeat his success from last year. I would only take Rivers with a
late-round pick in the majority of leagues, and if you start him just
hope it's one of the better games compared to the way he closed last
season, which was more on the quiet side.
Will likely be drafted
... Pick No. 145-150 overall
I'd rather have: Andrew Luck, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler
Cam Newton, QB, Panthers
Newton has been a Top 7 Fantasy
quarterback every year of his career, but that's about to change. The
Panthers have torn apart his receiving corps with Steve Smith, Ted Ginn and Brandon LaFell gone, and their replacements are Jerricho Cotchery and Tiquan Underwood
to go with tight end Greg Olsen. Once
you stop laughing, also realize that Newton will enter training camp
coming off ankle surgery in March, and he has a new offensive line with Jordan Gross and Travelle Wharton
gone. We saw Newton struggle to close the season last year with just one
20-point Fantasy outing in his final four games, and he ran less in 2013
with a career low in attempts (111), yards (585) and touchdowns (six).
Coach Ron Rivera said at the NFL owners meeting in March that the
Panthers will remain run-heavy -- what other choice do they have? -- and
Newton could struggle. He might turn into a tremendous value on Draft
Day, but go into the season with Newton as a No. 2 Fantasy quarterback
worth a late-round pick. He has too many red flags to consider a
starting option as of now.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No.
120-125 overall
I'd rather have: Jay Cutler, Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson
Nick Foles, QB, Eagles
Foles was amazing last year. He
catapulted himself to the No. 11 Fantasy quarterback despite making just
10 starts, and from Week 9 to the end of the season he had at least 21
Fantasy points in eight consecutive games. But the loss of DeSean Jackson will hurt since Foles targeted him more than any other
receiver (70 times), and he completed 71.4 percent of those passes to
Jackson. The Eagles will try to replace Jackson with the return of Jeremy Maclin (ACL), and they added Darren Sproles via trade from New Orleans. Riley Cooper is back, and Zach Ertz
should take on a bigger role, along with LeSean McCoy out of the backfield. But keep in mind Foles had just two
interceptions last season, and that number should rise significantly.
With Jackson gone, the Eagles have no true deep threat to open the
offense, and that could hurt Foles. He's still a Top 12 Fantasy
quarterback coming into the season, but he won't be a Top 10 option and
could significantly regress without Jackson. If you plan to draft Foles
as your starter, you might want to pair him with a high-end backup like
Rivers, Dalton or Newton.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No.
95-100 overall
I'd rather have: Jay Cutler, Robert Griffin III, Tony Romo
Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks
Lynch could be headed for a
down season based on his workload from 2013. We did a
full breakdown for the Super Bowl, but the theory is running
backs who have over 400 touches in a season tend to fall off the
following year. Lynch had 403 total touches (366 carries and 37 catches)
-- including the Super Bowl -- and that might catch up with him, whether
due to injury or fatigue. In the past 10 years, there were 27 times
where a running back had at least 400 touches, and only five times did
those running backs see an increase in Fantasy points the following
season. The 22 other examples where a running back hit 400 touches had
two retire and nine suffer injuries. Of the 20 times a running back
played the year after getting 400 touches and saw a decline in
production, 15 had their Fantasy points drop by at least 30 percent and
10 by at least 40 percent. Some will still consider Lynch a Top 5 pick,
but I wouldn't draft him until Round 2. And I'm keeping a close eye on
the battle for the No. 2 job in Seattle with Robert Turbin and Christine Michael,
because whoever wins that role could be a sleeper next season -- and I
anticipate Michael to have that job.
Will likely be drafted ...
Pick No. 5-10 overall
I'd rather have: Le'Veon Bell, Doug Martin, Montee Ball
Chris Johnson, RB, Jets
The Jets decided to gamble on
Johnson after the Titans released him in April, and his days as a
featured running back are over. He will share playing time with Chris Ivory, and whether he remains the starter is irrelevant because
he's not a workhorse anymore. Keep in mind, we're talking about a
running back with a career-low 3.9 yards-per-carry in 2013. He still
managed to finish as the No. 9 Fantasy running back last season, but
that was his first Top 10 finish since 2010. He has gone three years in
a row with six rushing touchdowns or less, and the only reason he was in
the Top 10 last season was a career-high four receiving touchdowns (his
previous high was two in 2009). He'll be 29 in September and hasn't been
the same running back since his 2,000-yard season in 2009. Right now
he's outside of my
Top 24 running backs for 2014, and I don't plan on moving him
up. I'll likely end up considering him just a flex option worth a pick
in Round 5 at the earliest, but someone else can draft him. If I want
the better Jets running back I'll wait another round or two later and
settle for Ivory, who has more upside.
Will likely be drafted ...
Pick No. 40-45 overall
I'd rather have: C.J. Spiller, Shane Vereen, Andre Ellington
Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos
Moreno was a good running
back before the Broncos signed Peyton Manning,
but he became great as the full-time starter with Manning under center.
He set career highs in rushing yards (1,038), rushing touchdowns (10),
catches (60) and receiving yards (548) in 2013. He averaged 4.3 yards
per carry and had 13 total touchdowns to finish as the No. 5 Fantasy
running back in standard leagues. Moreno was also solid to close 2012,
but he spent part of that season on the scout team and had trouble
staying healthy early in his career. Well, Moreno has left Manning for a slight
downgrade in Ryan Tannehill with the
Dolphins. Miami struggled to run the ball last season (the Dolphins were
No. 26 in rushing yards), but that's misleading given the offensive line
issues and a new offensive coordinator this year with Bill Lazor, who is
more run oriented. That said, Moreno will not finish as a Top 10 or
likely even Top 20 Fantasy running back. Lamar Miller should still be a factor, and Moreno will face plenty of
defenders at the line of scrimmage compared to his time in Denver. I
would only draft Moreno as a flex option in Round 6.
Will likely
be drafted ... Pick No. 65-70 overall
I'd rather have: Stevan Ridley, Joique Bell, Shane Vereen
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Raiders
For as bad as it seemed
Jones-Drew was in 2013 -- he averaged just 3.4 yards per carry -- he
still finished as the No. 20 Fantasy running back in standard leagues.
He managed seven games with double digits in Fantasy points despite one
game with 100 rushing yards, and this is now seven times in his
eight-year career he was a Top 20 Fantasy rusher. But the move to
Oakland should end that run, since Jones-Drew isn't guaranteed to be the
bell-cow running back he was with the Jaguars. Darren McFadden, when healthy, should be a significant factor. And
we'll find out if the Raiders plan to use promising sophomore Latavius Murray. Rashad Jennings proved
the Raiders can still get plenty of production from their backfield when
he started for the injured McFadden last season, but Jones-Drew is 29
and his yards per carry last year reflects his inability to dominate as
in years past. I'm barely comfortable with him as a flex option, and I'd
rather not draft Jones-Drew in most formats. His best days are behind
him.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 60-65 overall
I'd
rather have: Toby Gerhart, Rashad Jennings, Pierre Thomas
DeSean Jackson, WR, Redskins
Jackson's move to the
Redskins certainly improves their receiving corps and gives Griffin a
much-needed weapon to go with Pierre Garcon
and Jordan Reed. But Jackson is coming
off a career year in catches (82) and yards (1,332), and he tied his
career high in touchdowns (nine). He did this with Maclin out, and
Jackson struggled the previous three seasons when he wasn't the
clear-cut No. 1 option. Garcon has that role with the Redskins, and
Jackson won't finish as a Top 10 Fantasy receiver like he was in 2013. I
still expect Jackson to be a solid Fantasy option, but a more realistic
stat line is 65 catches, 1,000 yards and six touchdowns. That puts
Jackson on the cusp of a Top 24 Fantasy receiver, but it also puts him
in the mix with receivers like Roddy White,
Percy Harvin, Golden Tate and Emmanuel Sanders.
Since Jackson's name and history will push up his draft stock, I'd
rather pass on him and wait for any of these other options a round or
two later. There's more upside with them over Jackson heading into the
year.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 50-55 overall
I'd
rather have: Roddy White, Percy Harvin, Golden Tate
Riley Cooper, WR, Eagles
Cooper had a career season in
2013 and was rewarded with a five-year, $25 million extension. But if
you look at Cooper's stats from a year ago -- 47 catches for 835 yards
and eight touchdowns, all career highs -- he was only dominant for a few
outings. Cooper had just four games with double digits in Fantasy points
and seven games with at least eight points. He also had nine games with
four Fantasy points or less. Now, without Jackson, Cooper will have to
win more battles with potential No. 1 cornerbacks, especially if Maclin
is not back at 100 percent. He should get more than the 84 targets he
saw in 2013, which was the second-lowest among the Top 24 Fantasy
receivers (Marvin Jones had 80), but he has to be more consistent with
his production. Cooper is certainly capable of replicating his stats
from last season, but this entire passing game makes me nervous sans
Jackson. I'd settle for Cooper as a No. 4 Fantasy receiver, but you'll
probably have to draft him as your third option. And I'd rather gamble
on Maclin over Cooper since Maclin should benefit the most with Jackson
gone.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 85-90 overall
I'd
rather have: Kendall Wright, Terrance Williams, Jeremy Maclin
Eric Decker, WR, Jets
If you own Decker in a keeper or
dynasty league then you're rooting for Michael Vick to beat out Geno Smith
for the starting quarterback job. That could be the saving grace for
Decker to maintain Fantasy success. For the past two seasons with
Manning at quarterback, Decker averaged 86 catches for 1,176 yards and
12 touchdowns. But if you look at Decker in 2011 when he was catching
passes from Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow, he had 44 catches for 612 yards and eight touchdowns.
You'd take the touchdown total, but that's likely a stretch since the
Jets' leading receiver in touchdowns last year was Jeremy Kerley with three and the receiving corps as a whole combined
for 13 touchdowns. That will obviously improve, but Decker's Fantasy
value will take a steep decline, especially in a division with Darrelle Revis and Brent Grimes. Decker
is my No. 33 receiver coming into the season, and I don't want to rely
on him as a starter in any league. He's worth the gamble as a No. 3
receiver but nothing more with this move to New York.
Will likely
be drafted ... Pick No. 75-80 overall
I'd rather have: Emmanuel Sanders, Michael Floyd, T.Y. Hilton
Anquan Boldin, WR, 49ers
Boldin was tremendous from the
start last year with 13 catches for 208 yards and a touchdown in Week 1
against Green Bay. He would finish with a surprising 85 catches for
1,179 yards and seven touchdowns. The catches were his best total since
his last season in Arizona in 2009, his yards were his best since 2006
and he last scored seven touchdowns in 2010. Now, he did most of that
with Michael Crabtree out for the first
11 games of the season with an Achilles injury, but Boldin actually
played well when Crabtree returned with 35 catches for 455 yards and two
touchdowns in the final five games, with at least nine Fantasy points in
four of those outings. Still, with Crabtree healthy, it's hard to expect
Boldin to return as a Top 15 Fantasy receiver again. The good news about
Boldin is you can draft him with a late-round pick, but just don't
expect him to be a weekly starter now that Crabtree is back at 100
percent. If you consider him a No. 4 Fantasy receiver with the chance to
be a bye-week or injury replacement, then you're in great shape.
Will
likely be drafted ... Pick No. 115-120 overall
I'd rather
have: Jeremy Maclin, Justin Blackmon, Terrance Williams
Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Jamey at @JameyEisenberg .