Tiger Woods didn't necessarily need to play the Honda Classic this week given the strength of the field without him, but his presence in the first tournament in what will be a fun countdown to the Masters in seven weeks certainly enhances the experience.
Woods joins a group that includes Rickie Fowler, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas and Tommy Fleetwood in what will be a home tournament for many in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. For the second week in a row, golfers will get a stiff test from a tough track that should, like it has so many times in the past, produce a great champion.
Let's take a look at this week's contest.
Event information
What: Honda Classic | Where: Palm Beach Gardens, Florida | When: Feb. 22-25
Field and odds
- Rickie Fowler: 15-2
- Justin Thomas: 10-1
- Rory McIlroy: 10-1
- Sergio Garcia: 16-1
- Tommy Fleetwood: 25-1
- Tyrrell Hatton: 25-1
- Gary Woodland: 28-1
- Alex Noren: 28-1
Field strength: A-
Tiger has 50-1 odds to win this week following his missed cut at the Genesis Open last week. That's the same number as Scott Stallings and Patton Kizzire. More interestingly to me is that Fowler is such a favorite over Thomas and McIlroy. Those two guys, in a vacuum, are better than he is, but he's been playing mostly terrific golf for the last year (minus that missed cut at Torrey Pines). Still, I like the Thomas and McIlroy numbers better.
Three stories to watch
1. Toughest test? It's not the hardest test in golf (shout out to the U.S. Open), but it's certainly more difficult than what most pros are used to on a weekly basis on the PGA Tour. The Bear Trap is overrated, but that doesn't mean it's not insanely difficult. Last year's winner (Fowler) navigated it beautifully all week, playing holes Nos. 15-17 in 2 under over four rounds.
After two straight seasons as the most difficult par 70 in a non-major, PGA National slipped to sixth-hardest at 70.56 in 2017. Accuracy off the tee is more valuable than distance but The Honda Classic is primarily about avoiding speed bumps and shifts into reverse. Patience, grit and a taut short game ride shotgun with hitting greens in regulation behind the wheel. The par 3-4-3 sprint averaged 0.456 strokes over par last year in weather similar to what's on tap this week. The greatest threat of rain slides into the picture on the weekend, but it shouldn't skew scoring.
2. How has Tiger fared? In his three most recent appearances at this tournament (2012-14), Woods finished T2, T37 and had a WD in 2014. I presume he's playing this week not necessarily because he thinks he can contend and win (Woods seems to have a better grasp on the reality of his present situation) but rather so he can get at least get two rounds of tournament reps in before the Masters (four is a bonus if he makes the cut). This will be one of his last chances before Augusta National to compete at a tournament. You can also throw in the Arnold Palmer Invitational in a few weeks and possibly one other pre-Masters event.
3. Adam Scott's long slide: We have ourselves an official Adam Scott Situation at the moment. The 2016 champion here and currently the No. 58-ranked player in the world needs a big week to avoid what could be a miserable year. After finishing T53 at the Genesis Open last week, he'll come to PGA National looking for some magic to get him into the WGC-Mexico Championship next week and some badly needed OWGR points. The good news for him is that he hasn't finished outside the top 15 here in his last three appearances.
Scott is on a slippery OWGR slope. Miss top 50 this week, no Mexico. Miss Mexico, tougher to stay in top 64 next month for Match Play. Miss 2 WGCs, tougher to crack top 60 by May to make US Open. https://t.co/DxQwg8rzwR
— Will Gray (@WillGrayGC) February 19, 2018
Past winners
- 2017: Rickie Fowler
- 2016: Adam Scott
- 2015: Padraigh Harrington
- 2014: Russell Henley
- 2013: Michael Thompson
Throw in the fact that McIlroy took this event in 2012, and that's a pretty great six-year stretch of champions. Michael Thompson, in case you were wondering, is currently ranked No. 356 in the world.
Honda Classic picks
| Winner: Yeah, let's do this. Garcia has made all seven cuts at this even and has a pair of top 10s. Look at those recent winners. Ball-strikers all over the place. He'd fit in nicely. Odds: 16-1 |
| Top 10: Thomas finished in the top 10 last week at Riviera and in the top five of this tournament last year. He's simply better than pretty much everyone else in the field not named "Rory." One thing he needs to clean up is his strokes gained around the greens. Currently ranked No. 132 on the PGA Tour. Odds: 10-1 |
| Sleeper: McDowell sniffed the lead at Riviera all weekend, and he has a terrific history at this course with five top 15s in his career. He's also on a great number because of all the monster names in the field. Odds: 66-1 |
| Tiger watch: The truth with Woods is probably somewhere between his top 25 finish at the Farmers Insurance Open and his ugly missed cut at the Genesis Open. He has to clean up several areas of the game, most notably the driver. This probably isn't the greatest course to try and figure that out on. Odds: 50-1 |
