jon-rahm-royal-liverpool-open-2023-p-g.png
Getty Images

Between Rory McIlroy's attempt to win Royal Liverpool for a second time, Scottie Scheffler's historic season and Jon Rahm and Brooks Koepka both going for their second major championships of the year, it's nearly impossible to sort out the top of the heap as the 2023 Open Championship kicks into gear at Royal Liverpool.

Yet that's exactly what we attempted to do once again as we sorted through the 23 golfers most likely to win the 151st Open this week in Hoylake, England. The formula is inexact, though. A mixture of recent form, past history at Opens and general success at major championships is taken into account. As is who enter the tournament as the best drivers of the ball this year (at a place that is probably going to demand it).

Those are just some of the pieces that go into determining which golfers have the best chance to win the last major of the year. There is so much on the line with major season wrapping up, and though the FedEx Cup Playoffs remain ahead this fall, for many Royal Liverpool is the last opportunity to truly put their stamp on golf in 2023 by hoisting the Claret Jug.

Let's dive in. Don't miss a complete set of Open expert picks and predictions from our CBS Sports golf team ahead of the final major of the season as well as Kyle Porter's list of the nine golfers most likely to win at Royal Liverpool.

2023 Open field, ranked

1. Rory McIlroy (Won in 2014): Everything is coming up Rory. In golf, that usually doesn't end well, but the reality of the situation is that he has everything -- recent great play, a win last week, sustained Open Championship success, a near miss at this event last year, a near miss at his most recent major and a win the last time the Open was at this golf course -- working in his favor. While he has not been the best golfer in the world so far in 2023 (that would be the next guy on this list), he's an easy favorite as the most likely to win the 151st Open Championship.

Of course, the last time an Open round was played, Rory was also an easy favorite and then he went out and got his heart -- along with the hearts of those in attendance at St. Andrews and millions watching at home -- completely broken. This time around could yield the same result, though there are two things that Rory has done that have solidified his spot at the top of these rankings.

The first, which we've discuss before, is his display of confidence after losing the U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club. He talked about winning his next major as if it was a certainty and only a matter of time: when, not if. That's not a position he's necessarily held publicly over the last nine years. McIlroy eschewed his press conference on Tuesday morning (because he's tired of talking about everything outside of golf), but in a conversation with Todd Lewis, his disposition is exactly what you want to see from a potential five-time major champion trying to delicately balance the pressure of the week with the formula he's used to play his best.

"Care free," he said when asked about what attitude he wanted to bring into the week. "Just go out and play my golf and enjoy it. That's always been the way I've played my best golf is playing with a bit of a carefree attitude and enjoying the game for what it is. … If those are my two goals for the week and I'm able to do that, I'm pretty sure the byproduct will be I'll play some good golf."

2. Scottie Scheffler (T8 in 2021): There's not much left to say that has not already been said. His numbers this year are a complete and total joke. They are even more absurd than you think. Look at this graph from Rick Gehman, where he notes the following since last October: "Scheffer has gained 197 strokes from tee-to-green in total -- the most of anyone on Tour. Rory McIlroy is next, gaining 95 and Patrick Cantlay is third, gaining 94. That means that Scheffler has gained more strokes from tee-to-green than the next two best players in the world COMBINED."

It's not just a numbers game, either. Scheffler is doing it where it counts. With a T10 at the Masters, T2 at the PGA Championship and 3rd at the U.S. Open, he's been lights out at the majors this year. It's difficult to see him finishing outside the top six or seven when the dust settles on Hoylake on Sunday.

3. Brooks Koepka (T4 in 2019): Koepka is back to his menacing ways at major championships. In three outings this year, he's finished T2, won and finished T17 at the Masters, PGA Championship and U.S. Open, respectively. He has yet to stand on a podium (top three finish) at The Open, but given how demanding this golf course will be off the tee and how well he's playing in general right now, this will be about as good of a chance as he's had to win the third leg of the grand slam. For fun, here are the golfers who have won the PGA and The Open in the same year. Incredibly, three of the five have happened at Royal Liverpool:

  • Walter Hagen (1924)
  • Nick Price (1994)
  • Tiger Woods (2006)
  • Padraig Harrington (2008)
  • Rory McIlroy (2014)

4. Jon Rahm (T3 in 2021): It's hard to believe that somebody with four wins this year would check in at No. 4 on this list, but Rahm has only been OK since winning the Masters. The numbers in that seven-tournament stretch include a runner up (Mexico Open), one other top 10 (U.S. Open) and a whole lot of mediocrity (for Rahm) beyond that. His elite driving should win the day at a place like Hoylake, but this is probably the least confidence I've had in him going into a major in a while, which should tell you how high the floor is more than anything else.

5. Cameron Smith (Won in 2022): It makes sense that somebody who is no longer playing on the PGA Tour would fly in as one of the more under-the-radar defending champions of the last few decades, but it's still a bit surprising to not see more hype around last year's winner, who has also made the cut at all three majors and finished in the top nine at the PGA and U.S. Open. The case against Smith is that his driving is not elite and has not been great even when he's played well. If Hoylake plays as demanding off the tee as some are saying, that could be a problem. The forecasted rain could hurt his chances as well. He almost certainly wants it to be as fast and firm as possible so that he can work his magic with the irons.

6. Rickie Fowler (T2 in 2014): Fowler has only missed one cut in 11 appearances at The Open Championship and is arguably playing the best golf of his career. It would be completely shocking if he missed the cut this week but not shocking at all if he went on to win or come close to it. The weakest part of his game so far this year has been off the tee (and it's still been above average), which is something to keep in mind throughout the week. Also, I would love to see him rock this exact fit from 2014 when he finished T2 here, but in four different color schemes throughout the week.

rickie-fowler-2014-open-getty.png
Getty Images

7. Viktor Hovland (T4 in 2022): Another guy who's coming in hot under the radar. He does not have a top 10 since winning the Memorial, but you could argue that The Open has been his best major. He finished T12 two years ago and T4 playing in the final pairing last year. Plus, the scripting is off the charts. Also, don't sleep on this stat.

8. Tommy Fleetwood (2nd in 2019): Nine presidents have come through the White House since an Englishman last won an Open in England. Fleetwood this year represents one of the best chances for his country in a while. That's how confident I am that he's going to play well this week.

9. Collin Morikawa (Won in 2021): I believe in Morikawa more than most and perhaps even more than he believes in himself. The numbers are there. They're distributed more unevenly than they have in the past, but that certainly does not preclude him from winning a standalone major championship, just as he did the last time the Open was played in England.

10. Jordan Spieth (Won in 2017): The recent trend is not encouraging (and it is, strangely, his iron play that's to blame), but he would have to be playing left-handed for me to not believe the union of Spieth and this tournament was going to produce all kinds of magic throughout the week. This is almost certainly his best chance to win a major every single year.

11. Bryson DeChambeau (T8 in 2022): Bryson got so formulaic there for a while that it did not seem as if he would ever be able to win or contend at the places that engender the most creativity. However, he's backpedaled on that a bit and certainly has the tee-to-green game to play great here. He brings in a T4 at the PGA, a T20 at the U.S. Open and all kinds of success for LIV Golf. I'm pretty fascinated to see how his week goes.

12. Dustin Johnson (T2 in 2011): It's remarkable to me that, after all these years, D.J.'s best chance remains that year he hit a ball out of bounds at Royal St. George's when Darren Clarke went on to win. Johnson has been playing some quality golf, including a T10 at the U.S. Open where he did not putt at all. Qualifies as one of the better driver who could take advantage of that skill on this course. He could also play his way onto the U.S. Ryder Cup team with a win or close call here.

Who will win the Open Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine now to see the projected Open leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed nine golf majors, including this year's Masters.

13. Shane Lowry (Won in 2019): Everything is rounding into form for Lowry. He's been awesome at the last three Opens (win and three top 25s) and awesome in general of late. He has finished in the top 20 in each of the first three majors and has only finished outside the top 20 in one of his last six events. Also, he's the best.

14. Patrick Cantlay (T8 in 2022): The numbers are certainly stellar, but I don't go into majors believing that Cantlay is the guy or even among the guys to beat. Perhaps that's unfair given how good he's been at the first three this year -- nothing outside the top 15 -- but until he's in the driver's seat on Saturday night at a major or wins one late on Sunday, it will always be difficult to believe.

15. Xander Schauffele (T2 in 2018): You could more or less copy-paste everything I said about Cantlay and put it here. The only difference is that Cantlay is playing better golf than Schauffele at the moment, although Schauffele has been quite good at the majors with three top 18 finishes this year.

16. Tony Finau (3rd in 2019): Has his run since the Mexico Open been great? No. Has he still been awesome in majors so far this year? Also no. Does he at least have driver to fall back on? He's lost strokes off the tee in three of his last five. So, why does Finau get the 13th spot? Well, he's been solid at Opens (no missed cuts, all top 30s), and again, he's one of the handful of drivers who -- if Hoylake runs soft -- will really have an advantage as he moves around that track.

17. Wyndham Clark (T76 in 2022): Is Wyndham Clark that dude? I don't know. He's an excellent player who is having the year of his life and will end up on the Ryder Cup team in September, but is he going to join a list of players that includes Bobby Jones, Gene Sarazen, Ben Hogan, Lee Trevino, Tom Watson and Tiger Woods who have won the U.S. Open and the Open Championship in the same year? That seems far-fetched.

18. Tyrrell Hatton (T5 in 2016): He strangely does not have a top 10 at a major since 2019, but this is as good as he's ever played in his career. Hatton has top 15s in six of his last seven, made the cut at all three majors and finished second at the Players Championship. It's been, a bit quietly, an excellent season for Hatton as well as one of the two best driving seasons of his life. He'll have to keep his head to have a chance, but I do like him to be in the mix come the weekend.

19. Hideki Matsuyama (T6 in 2013): If you're looking for value, Matsuyama is 100-1 this week even though he's hitting it pretty well and only has one missed cut since March. The Open is not necessarily his best major venue historically, but doubt him at your own peril. He was not exactly thriving going into the 2021 Masters -- no top 10s in the 10 events leading in -- and had no problems putting that one away.

20. Justin Rose (T2 in 2018): Rose is quietly having his best year since 2019. And while it's not quite as prolific as where he was back in the early 2010s, it's still good enough to compete at a major championship, which he did at the first two this year (T16 at the Masters, T9 at the PGA Championship).

21. Corey Conners (T15 in 2021): This is just Conners' fourth Open, but he's had some mild success with two cuts made and two top 30s. More importantly, he's a menace off the tee and is playing solid golf with three top 20s in his last four and five in his last seven (including one at the PGA Championship).

22. Sam Burns (T42 in 2022): Terrific driver who has been playing probably a bit better than most people think. Since missing the cut at the PGA Championship, he has three top 20s (including last week at the Scottish Open) and played well at the U.S. Open until a Sunday 73. If he needs any extra motivation, he's trying to secure a Ryder Cup spot in September after making the Presidents Cup squad a year ago.

23. Cameron Young (2nd in 2022): Listen, has the play been great? No. But can you explain that away with something rational like an injury? Also no. There has been a bit of a flicker with a nice showing at the John Deere, and I'm leaning on his performance last year along with the fact that he's one of the greatest drivers in the world and could flip that switch and beat back Hoylake as the week wears on.