Tour Championship 2018 odds: Surprising PGA picks from advanced model that called Bryson DeChambeau's run

The 2018 Tour Championship starts Thursday, with the first group teeing off at 11:40 a.m. ET. The 2018 Tour Championship odds have been on the move all week, with some of the heaviest action on Tiger Woods. The 14-time major winner opened at 14-1 to win the Tour Championship 2018, but his odds have since improved to 12-1. Justin Rose, the runner-up in the Open Championship and top-ranked player in the world, is the Vegas favorite at 8-1 to win the Tour Championship. Former champion Rory McIlroy and Dustin Johnson are going off at 9-1, while Justin Thomas (10-1) and Brooks Koepka (12-1) are also among the top contenders. Before you make any 2018 Tour Championship picks or enter a daily fantasy golf tournament on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings, you'll want to hear what the team at SportsLine has to say.

SportsLine's prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been dead-on so far in the 2018 FedEx Cup Playoffs. It was all over Bryson DeChambeau at the Dell Technologies Championship, projecting him as a top contender from the start despite being a 33-1 long shot.

It has also nailed four of the past eight majors entering the weekend and called Tiger Woods' deep run in the PGA Championship despite being a 25-1 long shot. Anyone who has followed their model is up big.

Now that the 2018 Tour Championship field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising.

One huge surprise the model is calling for in its 2018 Tour Championship picks: Woods, the only player to win the FedEx Cup more than once, makes a strong run but falls just short of winning the title.

Woods is still searching for that elusive 80th PGA Tour victory and his last win in the FedExCup Playoffs was at the 2009 BMW Championship. However, Woods enters the 2018 Tour Championship full of confidence. In 17 starts this season, he has two second-place finishes and six top-10s. Bettors have jumped on Woods' bandwagon, pushing his 2018 Tour Championship odds down from 14-1 to 12-1.

Another surprise the model is projecting at the Tour Championship 2018: DeChambeau, the top-ranked player in the 2018 FedEx Cup standings, doesn't sniff the top three. 

DeChambeau knows a victory at East Lake Golf Club this week will guarantee him the FedEx Cup title. In fact, he can finish as low as 29th and still have a mathematical chance of capturing the cup. And DeChambeau is no stranger to the winner's circle in the FedEx Cup Playoffs. He took down the first two events of the 2018 FedEx Cup Playoffs, the Northern Trust and Dell Technologies Championship, and has nine top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour this season. However, he's finished 19th or worse in four of his last six starts.

SportsLine's model says DeChambeau comes up short this week at East Lake. There are far better values than the 20-1 you'll need to pay for him in the loaded 2018 Tour Championship field.

Also, the model says three golfers with odds of 16-1 or longer will make a deep run at the Tour Championship title. Anyone who bets on these underdogs could hit it big.

So who wins the 2018 Tour Championship, and which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the latest 2018 Tour Championship odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the Tour Championship projected leaderboard from the model that's nailed four of the last eight majors heading into the weekend.

Justin Rose 8-1
Rory McIlroy 9-1
Dustin Johnson 9-1
Justin Thomas 10-1
Brooks Koepka 12-1
Tiger Woods 12-1
Rickie Fowler 14-1
Tony Finau 16-1
Bryson DeChambeau 20-1
Hideki Matsuyama 20-1
Jason Day 20-1
John Rahm 20-1
Francesco Molinari 20-1
Tommy Fleetwood 20-1
Webb Simpson 25-1
Billy Horschel 25-1
Xander Schauffele 30-1
Patrick Cantlay 30-1

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