Waste Management Phoenix Open odds 2018: Picks from same model that nailed Alex Noren's run

The PGA Tour is heading to Scottsdale, Arizona, on Thursday for the 2018 Phoenix Open. Jordan Spieth is the Vegas favorite at 8/1, followed closely by Hideki Matsuyama at 9/1 and Jon Rahm at 10/1. Matsuyama opened at 8/1 before falling slightly.

Before you make any bets on the 2018 Phoenix Open or enter a daily fantasy golf tournament on DraftKings or FanDuel, you'll want to hear what the team at SportsLine has to say.

SportsLine's prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, was all over Alex Noren at the Farmers Insurance Open last week. Despite being a 60/1 long shot, the model projected him to be a top contender. The result: Noren shot 70 or better in three of his four rounds and finished tied for second after a playoff. Anybody who used their model had plenty of great value selections to choose from.

Now that the field for the 2018 Phoenix Open is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

One huge surprise the model is calling for at the 2018 Phoenix Open: Charley Hoffman, a 60/1 long shot, is set to make a serious run at the title. He's a target for anybody looking for a huge payday.

Hoffman is coming off a disappointing performance at the Farmers Insurance Open that saw him finish 35th. Don't be fooled, though; Hoffman has been hot this season. He took second in the Hero World Challenge after shooting 14 under and followed that up with a top-10 finish in the QBE Shootout, where he shot 18 under. Both are unofficial PGA Tour events.

Hoffman is tops in the PGA in holes per eagle at 45 and owns the No. 23 spot in the Official World Golf Rankings. He has 40 career top-10 finishes and needs to be on your radar at the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

Another curveball: Phil Mickelson, a three-time winner of the Phoenix Open, doesn't even sniff the top 12. He's somebody to completely steer clear of this week.

Mickelson finished third at the Safeway Open in October, but since then took 15th at the World Golf Championships - HSBC, was cut at the CareerBuilder Challenge, and finished 45th at the Farmers Insurance Open. He's No. 49 in the Official World Golf Rankings.

Also, three additional players with odds longer than 40/1 are positioning themselves to make a serious run at the title. Anyone who bets on these underdogs could hit it big.

So who wins the 2018 Waste Management Phoenix Open? And what long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the updated odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard from the model that predicted Alex Noren's deep run at the Farmers Insurance Open, and find out.

Jordan Spieth 8/1
Hideki Matsuyama 9/1
Jon Rahm 10/1
Rickie Fowler 12/1
Justin Thomas 15/1
Marc Leishman 25/1
Tony Finau 30/1
Daniel Berger 30/1
Webb Simpson 30/1
Alex Noren 40/1
J.B. Holmes 40/1
Matt Kuchar 40/1
Zach Johnson 40/1
Gary Woodland 50/1
Brendan Steele 50/1
Patrick Reed 50/1
Patton Kizzire 50/1
Byeonghun An 50/1
Phil Mickelson 50/1
Harris English 50/1
Austin Cook 50/1 
Francesco Molinari 50/1
Ryan Palmer 50/1
Kevin Chappell 50/1

Our Latest Stories