On Saturday night in Dodger Stadium the host Dodgers topped the Mets 5-2 (box score) to even the NLDS at 1-1. Now let's look at a few key takeaways from a contest that won't soon be forgotten ...
1. People will be talking about the bottom of the seventh for a long time.
The Dodgers entered the home half of the seventh down 2-1, but then all of this happened ...
It's not only that the Dodgers plated four runs. It's also that this, merely hinted at in the clinically detached language of the play-by-play log, happened and will surely resonate for a long time ...
Ruben Tejada is out for the rest of the postseason. Chase Utley is a villain in Queens and a dirty-uniformed catalyst in Chavez Ravine. The only thing that will be debated more vigorously than the decision to rule Utley safe at second is the slide itself. This one isn't going away.
2. The Dodgers were on the brink.
However, they arrived at those seventh-inning runs, the Dodgers sorely needed them. Coming into that frame, they had a 33.3 percent chance of winning Game 2. By the time it was done -- the hits, the runs, the sturm and the drang -- the Dodgers had a 94.2 percent chance of winning Game 2. And so they did. Had they not come back, here's the sort of history they would've been facing ...
Rangers win Game 2, 6-4. Teams that win 1st 2 games on road in best-of-5 postseason series win series 93% of time (27-2) via @EliasSports
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 9, 2015
Yes, that's in reference to Toronto's loss in Game 2 of the ALDS, but the Dodgers would've been facing the same long odds had they not fought their way back on Saturday night. Maybe that seventh inning is the one that saved the Dodgers season (and perhaps Don Mattingly's job).
3. Terry Collins' decision to pitch Bartolo Colon in relief was a questionable one.
Here's why Collins in that fateful seventh summoned Colon to pitch out of the bullpen for just the ninth time in his 17-year career ...
Right call summoning Colon: Kendrick is 2-for-22 lifetime against him.
— Bob Klapisch (@BobKlap) October 11, 2015
Nothing is more dangerous in the hands of a manager than hitter-versus-pitcher stats (assuming this indeed what informed Collins' decision). Rarely do an individual moundsman and batsman face one another often enough to yield a meaningful data sample, and in this case 22 ABs is far from meaningful.
On another level, Colon's a 42-year-old who throws one of two fastball types more than 90 percent of the time. That is, he's not the sort whose stuff tends to play up in a bullpen role. Given the right-handed depth in the Mets bullpen (and given that two relievers combined for just 26 pitches in Game 1), there were better choices for this high-leverage spot.
4. Noah Syndergaard’s frontline stuff was on display, for a while.
On Saturday night, Syndergard averaged 98.8 with his four-seamer and sinker and maxed out at 101 with both pitches. As for his changeup, let's let Sweet Music break it down for you ...
91 mph change!! I never threw a FB 91 mph!!!
— Frank J. Viola, Jr. (@FrankViola16) October 11, 2015
He's not wrong: Syndergaard hit 91.7 with his changeup at one point (and 90.7 with his tight slider). Unsurprisingly, catcher Travis d'Arnaud's mitt died a hero's death ...
Syndergaard's command wavered as his pitch count climbed, though. That said, let's bear in mind that we're talking about a 23-year-old rookie who's making his first postseason start and doing so on the road, where he's been less effective. Syndergaard's darn good right now, but his crackling stuff suggests he'll soon be great.
4. Zack Greinke’s early gopheritis was unexpected.
In the second inning on Saturday night, Greinke allowed homers to Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto. Just twice in 32 starts this season did he give up two home runs in a single game. Prior to Game 2, Greinke hadn’t given up multiple homers in an inning since April 6, 2014. More generally, Greinke this season gave up just 0.6 homers per nine innings, and just 7.3 percent of his fly balls allowed left the park. Cespedes and Conforto did a most unlikely thing.
5. We'll have a Game 4.
Self-evident? Absolutely. But the reality of a fourth game in this series gives each manager some time to think about his starting pitchers. Steven Matz is on the Mets' roster, but will his injured back be well enough to allow him to start? That's the expectation, but Colon is also a possibility if Matz isn't healthy enough. As for the Dodgers, will it be Alex Wood, the fourth starter on the team's NLDS roster, or will Mattingly summon Clayton Kershaw on three days' rest? These questions must be answered soon enough.
