The four-game series between the Pirates and Nationals comes to a close Thursday. First pitch from Nationals Park is at 1:05 p.m. ET. The Nationals are -110 on the money line, meaning it would take a $110 bet on Washington to return $100.

Before you make any kind of pick, you need to see what SportsLine's advanced computer has to say.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, entered the week on a 21-11 run on its MLB selections. Anybody who has been following it is up big.

Now, the computer has simulated this matchup between the Pirates and Nationals 10,000 times and identified strong Over-Under and run-line picks, which you can get only over at SportsLine.

The model also is pointing towards a bold money-line winner that hits 10 percent more than its odds imply.

It's also aware that the Pirates' bats are booming at .257 -- second-best in the National League. But the Nationals, behind their stellar starting rotation, boast a 3.90 ERA.

Pittsburgh went into Wednesday's game at 17-13 for the season and 7-8 away from home, while Washington is 14-16 with a 6-9 record at Nationals Park.

Taking the mound for Pittsburgh will be righty Trevor Williams, who's 4-1 with a 2.29 ERA. He's projected to strike out four Nationals batters in six innings of work. He'll oppose Jeremy Hellickson, who's 0-0 with a 4.11 ERA. The computer model is predicting Hellickson to strike out four Pirates in five innings of work.

The Under is 21-6 in the Pirates' last 27 Thursday games and 7-3 in the Nationals' previous 10 contests played on grass.

So which side of the money line should you be all over on Thursday? Visit SportsLine here to find out which side of the Pirates-Nationals money line hits 10 percent more often than its odds imply, all from the computer model that entered the week on a 21-1 run.