More Papi >> No. 500 | By the numbers | HOFer? | Steroid stigma unfair | Historic run
Now that Red Sox DH David Ortiz has etched his name in the history books as the 27th man to reach 500 career home runs, it's worth a look forward to who might be No. 28.
Let's start by checking out the active leaderboard, starting behind Ortiz. It's a big gap, too.
408 - Adrian Beltre
407 - Miguel Cabrera
394 - Mark Teixeira
388 - Carlos Beltran
385 - Aramis Ramirez
We can cross off Ramirez, as he's retiring after this season. Beltran is out, too, as he's 38 years old and has just 30 homers in 2014-15 combined. Let's look at the other three.
Beltre is 36 years old and hit 30 homers in 2013. He was very productive (.324/.388/.492) last season, giving hope that he might be able to perform well into his late-30s. This year, though, he's hitting .262/.305/.404 and only has 13 homers. At this pace, staying on the field long enough for 92 more home runs is a very tall order. This isn't happening.
Teixeira won't turn 36 until next April. He did hit 31 homers in only 392 at-bats this season, a full-season pace of something in the ballpark of 43 home runs. If he can do that next season, there's an outside shot he can extend himself enough to get close to 500. The problem, though, is he hasn't been able to play more than 123 games in a season since 2011. It's hard to see the injury concerns going away at age 36. Given that he's still 106 home runs away, I'm gonna say this isn't happening either.
Cabrera is our horse here.
Miggy went on the DL this season, but it was for the first time in his career. Something happening just once isn't any sort of red flag, and he's been swinging a real good bat since he came off the DL. At age 32, he can still stave off age-related decline for another few seasons.
Cabrera is hitting a home run once every 22 at-bats this season, and that's low for him. Let's just conservatively say he averages one every 25 at-bats moving forward (it'll be lower in the earlier years but decline as we move on, in all likelihood). He needs 93 home runs, meaning he'll need roughly 2,325 more at-bats. That's about four seasons.
Cabrera is signed through 2023 and, again, he's only 32 years old. Even if he slows down a bit, he will make it to 500 homers. And what if he has a season with 44, such as he did in both 2012 and 2013? That accelerates things.
The flip-side is that there's a reason so few players have ever gotten to 500 homers. It's pretty tough to rack up that many homers. It requires great skill, longevity and durability. If any of those things deteriorate at any point, it's tougher to get there. I feel confident Cabrera can make it, but 93 home runs away means there are a litany of things that could derail him.
As for any far-down-the-road 500-homer candidates, let's throw a few out there (name, current age, current home run total -- sorted by homers):
Giancarlo Stanton, 25, 181
Mike Trout, 23, 125
Bryce Harper, 22, 91
