After a day of haggling and medical reviews, the Brewers and Rangers have finalized a trade sending right-hander Yovani Gallardo to Texas. In return, Milwaukee is receiving three good but not great prospects:
brewers get prospects sardinas, knebel and diplan for gallardo. @JeffPassan 1st
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) January 19, 2015
Believe it or not, the 28-year-old Gallardo is the Brewers' all-time leader in strikeouts (1,226) and ranks sixth in franchise history in innings pitched (1,289 1/3). He has started each of the last five Opening Days, the longest such streak in team history.
Gallardo is no longer the pitcher he was a few years ago, when he compiled a 110 ERA+ with 9.4 K/9 from 2009-12. These last two years he's put up a 100 ERA+ and a 7.0 K/9, and that drop in strikeout rate is particularly concerning, especially at an age when Gallardo should be in the prime of his career. It is no longer Milwaukee's problem, however.
Gallardo is owed $13 million in 2015 and will be a free agent next offseason, so he's a pure rental for Texas. As for the Brewers, getting three prospects now for Gallardo is preferable to getting one draft pick after the season when he leaves as a free agent, assuming of course he is worth a qualifying offer, which wasn't a guarantee.
More importantly, the trade frees up a significant amount of cash for the Brewers. Their payroll has sat right around $100 million the last three years and their 2015 payroll was at $99 million before the Gallardo trade. They're paying $4 million of his salary, so the $9 million they saved could go to a big ticket free agent, specifically James Shields, the only big ticket free agent left.
Shields is going sign a contract worth more than $9 million annually, but Milwaukee could stick to their $100-ish million budget and still make it work with some fancy accounting. They could sign Shields to a backloaded contract -- let's say five years and $90 million, how's that? -- that pays him only $10 million in 2015, for example.
A backloaded contract would work for a Brewers because they have a ton of money coming off the books after this season. I mean a ton. Here's the list:
- Aramis Ramirez: $14 million
- Kyle Lohse: $11 million
- Jonathan Broxton: $8 million ($9 million salary minus $1 million buyout)
- Adam Lind: $6.5 million ($7.5 million salary minus $1 million buyout)
- Gerardo Parra: $6.237 million
Even if the club wants to bring Lind back to play first base at that very reasonable salary, they're still shedding over $39 million after 2015. The balance on Shields' hypothetical contract would be $80 million over four years, or $20 million annually. The team would still have roughly $19 million to spend next winter with a rotation of Shields, Matt Garza, Wily Peralta, Mike Fiers and Jimmy Nelson in place.
As it stands right now, the Brewers figure to be at best fighting the Pirates (and the Cubs, if you're an optimist) for the second place in the NL Central behind the Cardinals. They are at the point where every win added to the roster drastically improves their shot at a wild-card spot though. Going from, say, 79 wins to 81 wins by replacing one pitcher with another doesn't accomplish much. But going from something like an 86-win team to an 88-win team? That's huge.
There is no indication the Brewers are considering pursuing Shields, but remember, they lurked two offseasons go before signing Lohse in late-March, when his price dropped significantly. I don't expect Shields to drop his price much, but, if he does at all, the Brewers are in much better position to make a play than they were with Gallardo on the roster.
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