Kemba Walker and the Boston Celtics take on Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 3 of their Eastern Conference first-round series on Friday. Boston took the first two games easily, but an ankle injury to Gordon Hayward in Game 1 could come back to bite Boston at some point in this series. Hayward played quite well in the Orlando restart, and his replacement in the starting lineup -- Marcus Smart -- is a big step backward for Boston offensively.
The HP Field House in Orlando will host this 6:30 p.m. ET tip in the 2020 NBA Playoffs. William Hill lists Boston as the six-point favorite, up 1.5 points from the opening line. The over-under for total points is 216.5 in the latest Celtics vs. Sixers odds. Before making any Sixers vs. Celtics picks, see the NBA predictions from SportsLine's advanced computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it's already returned well over $4,700 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks this season. It entered the week on a blistering 58-32 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, returning almost $2,300 on those picks alone. Amazingly, it hasn't missed a single top-rated pick (5-0) since the NBA's restart in July. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Celtics vs. 76ers. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds from William Hill and trends for 76ers vs. Celtics:
- Celtics vs. 76ers spread: Boston -6
- Celtics vs. 76ers over-under: 216.5 points
- Celtics vs. 76ers money line: Boston -245, Philadelphia +205
- BOS: Boston had the second-best ATS record when playing on the road this season, so don't expect them to be bothered by the neutral location.
- PHI: The 76ers are just 3-7 ATS since the Orlando restart.
Why the Celtics can cover
The model is well aware that Boston has had no problem handling this Philly squad lately. In the past three meetings between these teams, the Celtics are 3-0 with an average margin of victory of 19 points. The trajectories of the two teams couldn't be much different, as Boston enters Friday's action having covered the spread in seven of 10 games in the Orlando bubble. Meanwhile, Philly is just 3-7 ATS since resuming action.
After the most recent trouncing of the Sixers, Boston's playoff record against them in the Embiid era is up to 6-1. The Celtics handed Philly a five-game first-round exit in 2018, and if the first two games of the 2020 matchup is any indication, Brad Stevens again has the Sixers figured out. Philadelphia has shown no signs of life thus far, and given how in sync Boston's star trio of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Walker have looked, it would be no surprise to see the C's easily take Game 3.
Why the Sixers can cover
The model has also considered that Embiid and the Sixers are not going to go down easy. The Celtics had Philly in an identical situation in the 2018 playoffs, and Embiid turned up the aggressiveness from Game 3 on. Boston still won the series, but Philly covered the spread in two of the next three games on the back of Embiid's 22 points and 14 rebounds per game. Boston is even less equipped to deal with Embiid defensively this time around, which is evidenced in his 30-point and 13-rebound average through the first two games of the series.
It's also entirely possible that this line overreacts to a two-game sample and Philadelphia will bounce-back with some better luck shooting the ball on Friday. Through the first two games of the series, Philly has just a 48 percent effective field-goal percentage on wide-open shots, which is the second-lowest of any team in the playoffs. For reference, their rate was 58.3 percent on such shots during the regular season. If they get some better bounces on Friday, Philly could absolutely cover the Celtics vs. Sixers spread.
How to make Celtics vs. Sixers picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total. In fact, the model is projecting Embiid, Tatum, and Brown all to finish well above their scoring averages. It also says one side of the spread hits over 60 percent of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins 76ers vs. Celtics? And which side of the spread hits over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Celtics vs. 76ers spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $4,700 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.
