The Miami Heat can move one step closer to the Eastern Conference semifinals with a win in Game 4 of their first-round series with the Milwaukee Bucks on Monday. Miami took a 2-1 series lead on Saturday with a 121-99 victory. The Bucks (58-24), the No. 1 seed in the East, were 26-15 on the road during the regular season, while Miami (44-38), the No. 8 seed, are 10-6 all-time in the postseason versus Milwaukee. Giannis Antetokounmpo (back) is questionable for the Bucks after missing the last two games. Jimmy Butler (glute) is questionable for Miami, while Victor Oladipo (knee) and Tyler Herro (hand) have been ruled out.
The game from Kaseya Center in Miami will begin at 7:30 p.m. ET. The Heat have the second-best defense entering the 2023 NBA playoffs, allowing 109.8 points per game, while the Bucks are 14th, allowing 113.3. Milwaukee is a 7.5-point favorite in the latest Bucks vs. Heat odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 218.5. Before making any Heat vs. Bucks picks, you need to see the NBA playoff predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters the third week of the 2023 NBA playoffs a stunning 71-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,800. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Bucks and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Bucks vs. Heat:
- Bucks vs. Heat spread: Bucks -7.5
- Bucks vs. Heat over/under: 218.5 points
- Bucks vs. Heat money line: Bucks -335, Heat +260
- MIL: The Bucks are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven Monday games
- MIA: The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games
- Bucks vs. Heat picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Bucks can cover
Forward Bobby Portis has had a solid series as he is averaging 14.3 points, 11 rebounds, two assists and one steal in 26 minutes of action. He poured in 21 points, while grabbing eight rebounds in the series opener and registered a double-double with 13 points and 15 rebounds in Game 2. He fared well against Miami in three regular-season meetings as well, scoring 15 points and grabbing 8.3 rebounds per game.
Shooting guard Pat Connaughton, who did not play in Game 1, is averaging 16.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, three assists and one steal in the series. In the Game 2 win, he scored 22 points on 66.7% shooting from the floor, including 60% from 3-point range. In three regular-season games against Miami, Connaughton averaged 12.3 points, 5.7 rebounds and one assist. During the regular season, he played in 61 games and averaged 7.6 points with 4.6 rebounds. See which side to back at SportsLine.
Why the Heat can cover
Small forward Caleb Martin has played well off the bench and is coming off a double-double in Game 3, scoring 12 points and grabbing 11 rebounds. He scored 15 points in Game 2, and overall in the series, he is averaging 14 points, five rebounds, 2.7 assists and one steal. Martin was solid against the Bucks in the regular season, playing in two games and averaging 17 points, seven rebounds, two blocks and one assist in 28.5 minutes.
Also helping lead Miami is forward Duncan Robinson. He scored 20 points, grabbed three rebounds and added two assists in the Game 3 win on Saturday. He also scored 14 points and grabbed five rebounds in the Game 2 loss at Milwaukee. For the series, he is averaging 12.3 points, three rebounds and 1.7 assists in 18.7 minutes of play. See which side to back at SportsLine.
How to make Heat vs. Bucks picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 223 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can see the model's picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Heat vs. Bucks? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is 71-38 on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.
