Bucks vs. Mavericks odds, spread: 2019 NBA picks, Dec. 16 predictions from proven model on 16-7 roll

SportsLine's advanced computer model simulated Monday's Bucks vs. Mavericks game 10,000 times.

By CBS Sports Staff

Dec 16, 2019 at 4:02 pm ET • 3 min read

The Dallas Mavericks will examine life without Luka Doncic on Monday evening when they face off against the Milwaukee Bucks on the road. Doncic suffered an ankle injury in the team's last game and, while the Bucks are also without Eric Bledsoe (fibula), the Mavericks will face an uphill climb against Giannis Antetokounmpo and company. Tip-off is at 8 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum.

Sportsbooks list the Bucks as 10.5-point home favorites, holding steady from the opener, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 227 in the Mavericks vs. Bucks odds. Before you make any Bucks vs. Mavericks picks or NBA predictions, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated NBA spread and money line picks. It's already returned almost $800 in profit on all its top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and entered Week 8 on a blistering 16-7 run on all top-rated NBA against the spread picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mavericks vs. Bucks. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Bucks vs. Mavericks.

Bucks vs. Mavericks spread: Bucks -10.5
Bucks vs. Mavericks over-under: 227 points
Bucks vs. Mavericks money line: Milwaukee -749, Dallas +520
DAL: Mavericks are 9-2 against the spread on the road this season
MIL: Last loss took place on Nov. 8 against the Utah Jazz

Why the Mavericks can cover

The model knows that the Mavericks are a different team without Doncic at the helm, making it difficult to evaluate Dallas based on a lack of information this season. However, the Mavs performed admirably on Saturday against the Miami Heat, taking a tough team to overtime with Doncic appearing for only two minutes of action.

While Doncic is a massive part of the equation, the Mavericks can take solace in having one of the NBA's best offenses, with top-five marks virtually across the board when evaluating their efficiency. In addition, Dallas should have success in ending possessions defensively, with a top-10 mark in the NBA in defensive rebounding compared to a paltry figure for the Bucks on the offensive glass. If it can win the rebounding battle, Dallas will have a great chance to keep this game competitive and cover the Bucks vs. Mavericks spread.

Why the Bucks can cover

The model is also aware that the Bucks are led by one of the NBA's best players and, in a game that does not feature Doncic, Antetokounmpo's presence is even more magnified. While he isn't receiving the attention of players like James Harden, LeBron James or even Doncic in some circles, Antetokounmpo has followed an MVP-worthy campaign with an equally impressive showing.

He is averaging 31.0 points, 12.8 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.2 blocks per game this season, operating with high-end efficiency offensively and helping to lead an elite defense with his versatility and force. The Bucks have surrounded Antetokounmpo with sold support. But, in short, his presence makes the whole thing work and few teams have anyone that can match him defensively. Milwaukee's overall two-way appeal is noteworthy and staggering, with Antetokounmpo as the linchpin on both sides of the ball.