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The Milwaukee Bucks host the New Orleans Pelicans in a New Year's Day tilt on Saturday. Milwaukee is 24-13 overall and 12-5 at home this season. New Orleans is 13-22 overall and 6-13 in road tilts. Zion Williamson (foot), Jonas Valanciunas (protocols) and Kira Lewis Jr. (knee) are out for the Pelicans, with Brandon Ingram (Achilles) listed as questionable. Khris Middleton (personal), Semi Ojeleye (protocols) and Brook Lopez (back) are out for the Bucks.

Milwaukee is listed as an 11.5-point favorites at home for this 6:30 p.m. ET tipoff. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 223 in the latest Pelicans vs. Bucks odds. Before making any Bucks vs. Pelicans picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven model

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 11 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 48-24 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning almost $2,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Bucks vs. Pelicans and just revealed its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Pelicans vs. Bucks:

  • Pelicans vs. Bucks spread: Bucks -11.5
  • Pelicans vs. Bucks over-under: 223 points
  • Pelicans vs. Bucks money line: Bucks -700, Pelicans +475
  • NOP: The Pelicans are 6-13 against the spread in road games
  • MIL: The Bucks are 6-11 against the spread in home games
Featured Game | Milwaukee Bucks vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Why the Pelicans can cover

New Orleans has a significant advantage on the glass, even against a Milwaukee team that is above-average in rebounding. The Pelicans lead the NBA in defensive rebound rate at 75.5 percent, and New Orleans is No. 3 in the NBA in offensive rebound rate at 30.3 percent. The Pelicans generate 14.1 second-chance points while giving up only 11.9 second-chance points on defense, and those extra possessions boost efficiency. 

On offense, New Orleans is in the top 10 in the NBA in free-throw accuracy (79.6 percent), assists (24.6 per game) and assist rate (63.5 percent), with above-average marks in fast-break points (13.0 per game), points in the paint (45.1 per game) and free-throw attempts (20.7 per game). On defense, the Pelicans are in the top 10 in preventing fast-break points, allowing only 11.3 per game, and New Orleans is above-average in allowing only 23.9 assists per game.

Why the Bucks can cover

The Bucks are very strong on both ends of the floor, and Milwaukee should benefit from the weaknesses of New Orleans. The Pelicans are just No. 25 in the NBA in field-goal percentage and No. 27 in the NBA in 2-point percentage. On defense, New Orleans is No. 25 in 3-point percentage allowed. Milwaukee ranks in the top five of the NBA in averaging 14.1 3-pointers per game, and the Bucks are in the top 10 in 3-point accuracy at 36.0 percent. 

The Bucks are above-average in free-throw creation and offensive rebounding, leading to nearly 14 second-chance points per game. On defense, the Bucks force opponents into difficult shots, ranking in the top eight in field-goal percentage allowed and 3-point percentage allowed. Milwaukee also walls off the rim, giving up only 19.1 free-throw attempts per game to opponents.

How to make Pelicans vs. Bucks picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 216 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations. You can only get the model's pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Bucks vs. Pelicans? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.