The San Antonio Spurs, mired in a 1-6 skid, are in Cleveland on Sunday to play the surging Cavaliers in a nationally-televised 3:30 p.m. ET tipoff. The Cavaliers opened as 4.5-point favorites and now are laying five. The Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, has risen slightly from 215 to 215.5.

Before picking either side, you need to read what SportsLine senior analyst Larry Hartstein -- who has put together a sizzling 20-9 run picking NBA games -- has to say. 

On Thursday, Hartstein made a confident pick on Cavaliers-Grizzlies, noting how Memphis, a five-point underdog, didn't have the talent to match a more physical Cleveland squad that was finally beginning to jell. The result: Six Cavs scored double digits as Cleveland rolled, 112-89, allowing Hartstein to cover by more than a dozen points.

Part of his success: Hartstein has a vast network of Vegas sources and has been covering the industry as a sportswriter and analyst for two decades. He can spot a bad line from a mile away.

Now, Hartstein has examined every matchup, every player and every trend for Spurs-Cavaliers on Sunday and locked in his pick. We can tell you he's expecting a low-scoring affair and is leaning towards the Under, but what about the spread, which he's made his name picking?

Hartstein knows if San Antonio expects to win -- or at least stay within the spread -- the defense must significantly tighten up, which is no easy task with Kawhi Leonard out of commission. San Antonio is yielding 108 points per contest during its recent four-game skid. The Spurs must blanket LeBron James, who's averaging 28 points over his last five outings.

But Cleveland can cover the spread by spreading the ball around. Newly-acquired guard Jordan Clarkson has come off the bench in all four games as a Cavalier and recorded double digits three times. They'll also be playing in front of a rowdy home crowd.

Hartstein has spotted a glaring trend that caused him to pounce on one side of the spread.

So what side of Spurs-Cavaliers do you need to be all over? Visit SportsLine now to see the strong point-spread pick for Spurs vs. Cavaliers, and see what glaring stat tips the scales, all from the expert who has absolutely crushed the NBA.