A pair of Eastern Conference rivals will take the floor in opposition on Thursday evening, when the Miami Heat travel to take on the Atlanta Hawks. The Southeast Division foes square off on four occasions annually, often making things interesting for those making NBA predictions. This time around, the Hawks and Heat are in the midst of a direct home-and-home set, with Miami taking the opener on Tuesday by a 15-point margin at home. Trae Young (ankle) is set to miss the game for Atlanta, where as Miami's injury report is cleaner after the return of Jimmy Butler (personal) on Tuesday. Tipoff is at 7 p.m. ET at State Farm Arena. Sportsbooks list the Heat as 6.5-point road favorites, up half a point from the opener, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 215.5 in the latest Heat vs. Hawks odds. Before you make any Heat vs. Hawks picks, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and anyone who followed it last season saw massive returns. The model finished 300-252 on all its top-rated picks. On top-rated against-the-spread and money line NBA picks alone, the model returned a whopping $4,280.
Now it has locked in on Heat vs. Hawks. We can tell you it's leaning over, and it also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
The model knows that the Hawks are a different team without Young on the offensive end but, on defense, Atlanta can now deploy lineups that are interestingly effective. Lloyd Pierce's team is filled with long, active athletes that can create havoc defensively and, without a traditional backup point guard, the Hawks have leaned into creating havoc defensively and slowing the game down. That could lead to increased effectiveness against Miami's offense and, with John Collins emerging in a 30-point effort on Tuesday, there is reason to believe that the Hawks can find cracks in Miami's defense.
Just because it has a few edges doesn't mean Atlanta will cover the Heat vs. Hawks spread on Thursday.
The model realizes that Miami is in advantageous spot with Young out of the mix for Atlanta but, for the Heat, things are also different with Butler. The veteran star notched 21 points in his Miami debut and he has averaged 20 points or more in four consecutive seasons. With the potential for an uptick in minutes after only playing 31 on Tuesday and enjoying an "off" day for travel, Butler's impact should be considerable.
In addition, Bam Adebayo appears to be developing into an all-court monster, averaging 15.8 points, 10.8 rebounds and 4.8 assists this season. Adebayo's presence should counteract the effectiveness of a fellow 2017 draftee Collins, and Miami has a talent edge against Atlanta, even in an unfriendly environment.
So who wins Hawks vs. Heat? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Hawks vs. Heat spread you need to jump on Thursday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
