The Dallas Mavericks visit the Golden State Warriors on Wednesday night in San Francisco. The Chase Center hosts the matchup in Game 1 of the 2022 Western Conference finals, with the Warriors enjoying home-court advantage. Golden State toppled the Memphis Grizzlies in the previous round, and Dallas stunned the Phoenix Suns with a blowout Game 7 road win on Sunday. Andre Iguodala (back), Gary Payton II (elbow), and James Wiseman (knee) are out for the Warriors.

Tip-off is at 9 p.m. ET in San Francisco. Caesars Sportsbook lists Golden State as a 5.5-point home favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 214.5 in the latest Mavericks vs. Warriors odds. Before you make any Warriors vs. Mavericks picks and NBA predictions, you need to see what SportsLine expert Matt Severance has to say.

A well-connected writer and handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005, Severance is on a stunning run: He is a blistering 85-33 his last 118 NBA money line picks, returning $3,113 to $100 bettors during that span. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, Severance has set his sights on Mavericks vs. Warriors, and just locked in his picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NBA odds and playoff betting lines for Mavs vs. Warriors:

  • Mavericks vs. Warriors spread: Warriors -5.5
  • Mavericks vs. Warriors over-under: 214.5 points 
  • Mavericks vs. Warriors money line: Warriors -225, Mavericks +185 
  • Mavericks vs. Warriors tickets: See tickets at StubHub
  • DAL: The Mavericks are 9-4 against the spread in playoff games 
  • GS: The Warriors are 5-6 against the spread in playoff games
Featured Game | Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks

Why the Mavericks can cover

Dallas is playing at a sky-high level in the playoffs. The Mavericks upset the Phoenix Suns in the second round, holding Phoenix to less than a point per possession in a blowout Game 7 road win. Dallas has excelled on defense throughout the playoffs, holding opponents to only 110.5 points per 100 possessions. The Mavericks lead the postseason in allowing only 7.4 fast break points per game, and opponents are connecting on fewer than 34 percent of 3-point attempts against Dallas. The Mavericks are giving up only 9.6 triples per game, and they are creating 7.8 steals per contest. 

Golden State's primary offensive weakness comes in ball security, with the Warriors committing a turnover on 15.8 percent of possessions. Dallas only commits a giveaway on 11.1 percent of possessions on the other end, and the Mavericks are shooting 38.5 percent from 3-point distance in the playoffs. Dallas is also led by a dynamic superstar in Luka Doncic, with the 23-year-old averaging 31.5 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 6.6 assists per game in the 2022 NBA playoffs.

Why the Warriors can cover

Golden State is excellent on both ends of the floor, and the Warriors are dominating at home in the playoffs. The Warriors are 6-0 at the Chase Center in the postseason, out-scoring opponents by more than 14 points per 100 possessions. Golden State is scoring 114.3 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs, regardless of venue, and the Warriors lead the 2022 NBA playoffs in assists (27.8 per game) and assist percentage (66.4 percent). Golden State leaves a mark on the glass, securing 28.6 percent of missed shots and averaging 14.5 second-chance points per game. 

Golden State is also riding a 59.2 percent true shooting mark in the playoffs, and the Warriors have an elite defense dating back to the regular season. Golden State is allowing only 44.3 percent shooting in the playoffs, and the Warriors finished No. 2 in the NBA in defensive rating during the regular season. Golden State also posted top-four marks in the league in field goal percentage allowed, two-point percentage allowed, 3-point percentage allowed, assists allowed, and steals, with Dallas ranking in the bottom tier of the league in assists, second-chance points, fast break points, and points in the paint.

How to make Mavericks vs. Warriors picks

For Game 1 of the Western Conference finals, Severance is leaning under on the point total, but he also says a critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back. He's only sharing what it is, and which side of the Mavericks vs. Warriors spread to back, at SportsLine.

So who wins Mavericks vs. Warriors? And which side of the spread is a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Mavericks vs. Warriors spread you need to jump on Wednesday, all from the expert that has crushed his NBA picks, and find out.