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The Denver Nuggets will look to continue their winning ways against the Miami Heat when they meet in Game 3 of the 2023 NBA Finals on Wednesday. The Nuggets (53-29), who have won three of four meetings with the Heat (44-38) this season, have not lost in Miami since the 2017-2018 season. The Heat, meanwhile, have had a lot of success this postseason on their home court, winning seven of nine games, including going 5-0 in the first two series of the 2023 NBA playoffs. Miami knocked off Denver 111-108 to even the series at 1-1 on Sunday. 

Tipoff from Kaseya Center in Miami is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. Denver is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest Heat vs. Nuggets odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is set at 213. Before making any Nuggets vs. Heat picks, make sure you check out what proven SportsLine NBA expert Larry Hartstein has to say.

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach. He excels in the NBA, especially when picking Denver Nuggets games. Over the past 99 Denver matchups, he is 58-38-3 against the spread, returning $1,625 for $100 players. 

Now, Hartstein has set his sights on Heat vs. Nuggets and just locked in his picks and 2023 NBA Finals predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see Hartstein's picks. Here are the NBA lines and trends for Nuggets vs. Heat:

  • Nuggets vs. Heat spread: Nuggets -3.5
  • Nuggets vs. Heat over/under: 213 points
  • Nuggets vs. Heat money line: Nuggets -160, Heat +135
  • DEN: The Nuggets are 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 Wednesday games
  • MIA: The Heat are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games
  • Nuggets vs. Heat picks: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game | Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets

Why the Nuggets can cover 

Denver will look to get back on track on offense as power forward Aaron Gordon will look to reach double-figure scoring in his fourth consecutive game. In the Game 2 loss, Gordon scored 12 points, while grabbing seven rebounds, dishing out two assists and blocking one shot. He scored 16 points and had six rebounds in Game 1. In the decisive Game 4 win over the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference finals, he poured in 22 points, grabbed six rebounds and had five assists. Gordon has reached double-digit scoring in five of the past six games, and in 17 postseason games is averaging 13.1 points, 5.6 rebounds and 2.4 assists.

Small forward Bruce Brown is one of six Denver players averaging double-figure scoring. In 17 postseason games with zero starts, he is averaging 12 points, four rebounds, 2.1 assists and 1.1 steals. In 27 minutes off the bench in Game 2, Brown scored 11 points, grabbed five rebounds and added two steals. He has reached double-digit scoring in seven of the past eight games, including a 25-point performance in a 118-102 win over the Phoenix Suns in Game 5 of their Western Conference semifinal series. See which team to pick here.

Why the Heat can cover

Small forward Jimmy Butler has carried Miami through much of the playoffs and continues to come up big when the Heat need it most. After dropping the series opener, Miami was able to knot the series on Sunday with another solid performance from Butler, who narrowly missed a double-double with 21 points, nine assists and four rebounds. Butler has scored 20 or more points in three of the past four games, including a 28-point, seven-rebound and six-assist effort in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals against the Boston Celtics. In 19 playoff games, Butler is averaging 27.3 points, 6.8 rebounds and 5.9 assists.

Point guard Gabe Vincent was dominant in the Game 2 win over the Nuggets, posting 23 points, three assists and two steals. He has reached double-figure scoring in each of the past six games. In the Game 1 loss, Vincent scored 19 points, while adding five assists, two rebounds and one block. He came up big in the Eastern Conference finals against Boston as well, scoring 29 points in a dominant 128-102 Game 3 win. In 19 postseason games, he is averaging 13.9 points, 3.9 assists and 1.6 rebounds. See which team to pick here.

How to make Heat vs. Nuggets picks

Hartstein is leaning Under on the point total, and he has identified a critical X-factor he says makes one side of the spread a must-back. You can find out what it is, and see which side of the Nuggets vs. Heat spread to back, at SportsLine.

Who wins Heat vs. Nuggets, and what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Heat vs. Nuggets spread you need to jump on Wednesday, all from the expert who has returned over $1,600 to $100 players over his last 99 Denver Nuggets picks, and find out.