Miami needs to finish the regular season with a flurry if it wants to overtake Detroit, Orlando or Brooklyn for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. On Sunday, the Heat will have their hands full against the Toronto Raptors. Miami (38-41) is one game behind the Pistons and 1.5 behind the Magic and Nets, while the Raptors (56-24) have already locked up the No. 2 spot in the NBA playoff bracket. Tip-off from Scotiabank Arena in Toronto is set for noon ET. The Raptors have won all three meetings this season and can sweep the season series for just the second time. The Raptors are 6-point favorites in the latest Heat vs. Raptors odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 215. Before making any Heat vs. Raptors picks of your own, see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks. It entered Week 25 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling 277-216 record on all top-rated picks, returning over $4,500 in profit to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA picks against the spread, entering Week 25 on a strong 69-52 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up.

Now the model has dialed in on Heat vs. Raptors. We can tell you it's leaning under, and it has also generated a strong against-the-spread pick that hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. That one is available exclusively at SportsLine.

The model knows that Toronto is nearly automatic at home, going 31-9 on its home court. The Raptors have won seven of the last eight at home against Miami and 10 of the last 13 in the series. The Raptors hold a statistical edge over the Heat in several categories, including free throw percentage (.804 to .694), field goal percentage (.473 to .451), 3-point percentage (.365 to .350) and scoring (114.3 points per game to 105.6).

Kawhi Leonard has already had two big games against the Heat this season, notching 59 total points. Power forward Pascal Siakam has also been hot of late, scoring 28 at Brooklyn and 31 at New York. He's contributed at least 20 points twice this season against the Heat.

But just because Toronto has won the first three meetings this season doesn't guarantee it'll win or even cover the Raptors vs. Heat spread on Sunday. 

That's because Miami has a lot more riding on this game than Toronto. With three games remaining in the regular season, the Heat can finish as high as sixth in the conference or as low as 10th. Miami has played better on the road this season, going 20-19 away from home, and the Heat lead the all-time series with the Raptors, 52-33, including a 21-19 edge in games played in Toronto.

With recent injuries to the lineup, guards Dwyane Wade and Goran Dragic have stepped up their play. Wade scored 24 points on Friday at Minnesota and has responded by averaging 18.1 over the last seven games. Dragic is averaging 18.7 points over the last three games.

So who wins Heat vs. Raptors? And which side of the spread can you bank on in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Heat vs. Raptors spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up more than $4,500 on its NBA picks this season, and find out.