After six wins in their last seven games, Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and the Philadelphia 76ers will face a difficult challenge against Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday. Philadelphia is 17-7 overall and 12-0 at home, while Denver is 14-7 overall and 6-4 on the road. Josh Richardson (hamstring) is questionable to play for Philadelphia, while Denver enters this treacherous road game with a clean bill of health. Tip-off is at 7 p.m. ET at the Wells Fargo Center. Sportsbooks list the Sixers as four-point home favorites, holding steady from the opener, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 206 in the latest Nuggets vs. Sixers odds. Before you make any Nuggets vs. 76ers picks or NBA predictions, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated NBA spread and money line picks. It's already returned almost $800 in profit on all its top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and entered Week 8 on a blistering 16-7 run on all top-rated NBA against the spread picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen HUGE returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Nuggets vs. 76ers. We can tell you that the model is leaning over, and has generated a strong against the spread pick that is hitting in over 60 percent of simulations. You can head to SportsLine to see it. Now, here are several NBA betting lines for Sixers vs. Nuggets.
- Nuggets vs. 76ers spread: 76ers -4
- Nuggets vs. 76ers over-under: 206 points
- Nuggets vs. 76ers money line: 76ers -175, Nuggets +155
- Nuggets: Denver ranks second in the NBA in defensive efficiency
- 76ers: Philadelphia is a perfect 12-0 at home
The model knows that the Nuggets have struggled on the offensive end this season, but Denver brings an elite defense into this particular matchup. Mike Malone's team has been stingy in deterring opponents on the perimeter this season, and to capitalize on that resistance, the Nuggets are one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the league. Offensively, Denver is led by Jokic, and while the team's shooting has struggled, the Nuggets avoid turnovers and generating second-shot opportunities at a top-10 level by using the offensive glass.
Just because Denver has a few edges, doesn't mean it will cover the Nuggets vs. 76ers point spread on Tuesday.
The model also grasps that Philadelphia is a different team when playing at home. The Sixers are a perfect 12-0 at Wells Fargo Center this season, and with the Nuggets bringing a similar profile to the table with occasional struggles on the road, things swing toward the home team. From a matchup perspective, the Sixers are an elite defensive team. The Nuggets actually have the overall statistical edge when comparing the two defenses but Philadelphia brings an impressive combination of length and athleticism that should help to resist Denver's offense.
Perhaps the most tangible advantage is the fact that the Nuggets don't get to the free throw line enough, ranking 30th (last) in the NBA in generating shots at the charity stripe. That could lead to an advantage in the analytical side for Philadelphia, and in the middle, Jokic is forced to deal with an elite defender in Embiid. The Sixers sometimes struggle in turning the ball over offensively, but in this matchup, that is also less of a concern, with the Nuggets fielding a below-average unit in creating giveaways on the defensive end.
So who wins Sixers vs. Nuggets and which side of the spread hits in over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the 76ers vs. Nuggets spread you need to jump on Tuesday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.
