What an incredible weekend of sports we have coming our way. With college football's regular season finished, the NFL has three games scheduled for Saturday -- but that's not all. College football's regular season is done, so bowl season begins in force Saturday with six games.
Then there's the full slate of college basketball, NBA, NHL, and just in case all of that isn't enough, we have the World Cup final and third-place matches on Saturday and Sunday, too. With cold weather all around the country this weekend, it couldn't come at a better time as we'll all be staying inside where it's warm and toasty.
And I've got enough picks to get you through all of it. Before we get to them, though, let's catch up on today's top stories.
- Zach Wilson will start for the Jets this week.
- Ten questions for the NFL regular season's stretch run.
- The MLB trade market could get going in full force soon.
- Brittney Griner plans to return to the Phoenix Mercury this season.
Let's throw some logs on the gambling fire.
All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Timberwolves at Thunder, 8 p.m. | TV: NBA League Pass
- Key Trend: Minnesota has covered four of the last five meetings in OKC.
- The Pick: Timberwolves +2.5 (-110)
There are bigger NBA games on the schedule tonight, but there isn't a better value than the one we're getting on the Timberwolves. Before I get to that, though, I'd like to go off on a tangent about the Timberwolves' name. Can we shorten it to Wolves? I mean officially. Timberwolves is too long of a name for a team nickname. Ideally, team names should be two syllables, but three still works. However, four is simply too many. And when you combine it with the four syllables in Minnesota, we're straight up out of control here.
Anyway, the Wolves have lost three straight, and this is the last game of a five-game road trip. They're 3-4 since losing Karl Anthony Towns, including a 135-128 loss to the Thunder in Minnesota two weeks ago, and tonight Rudy Gobert and D'Angelo Russell are questionable. I have more confidence in Gobert going, but if Russell does return tonight, we're getting a steal with the 2.5 points, and I like the value even if Russell doesn't play.
The Thunder have lost four straight themselves, and while they've been decent defensively this season (defensive efficiency of 112.4 ranks 16th), they've been terrible during this losing streak (116.3), and their offense has been non-existent (107.0 in the last four compared to 110.5 on the season). The Thunder are playing poorly right now, and it's hard to trust them to cover because of it.
Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: The Projection Model doesn't see much value anywhere in this game, but has a slight lean to the Thunder.
💰 The Picks
🏀 College Basketball
Central Connecticut at Manhattan, 7 p.m. | TV: ESPN+
The Pick: Manhattan -4.5 (-110) -- If you're not betting a college basketball game between two teams ranked outside the top 300 by KenPom on a Friday night, what are you even doing with your life? Especially when the Manhattan Jaspers aren't getting the respect they deserve! OK, maybe a team that's lost three straight and is only 3-6 on the season doesn't deserve much respect, but the Jaspers are the better team here.
Neither of these teams is good offensively (Manhattan ranks 335th in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency while CCSU is 337th). The difference is on the defensive end, where Manhattan ranks 257th and CCSU is 305th. Oh, and Manhattan has a significant size advantage. Finally, CCSU is only 1-10, including a record of 0-6 on the road, where it's losing by an average of 16.5 points per game.
🏈 NFL
Dolphins at Bills, Saturday, 8:15 p.m. | TV: NFL Network
The Pick: Under 44 (-110) -- There's been a lot made about the Dolphins having heaters on the sideline when it was 55 degrees in Los Angeles last week, and deservedly so. I was outside earlier today doing yard work in a T-shirt and joggers, and it's 27 degrees, windy and snowing. Still, I don't think the Dolphins should be touchdown underdogs in Buffalo simply because it will be cold and windy. The Bills have to play in the same conditions, and they're not conditions meant to help offenses.
Sure, it will snow, but it will not be a blizzard. The more significant factor for this game will be the high winds. That impacts passing offenses and special teams. I only wish this game were being played on Sunday when it's supposed to be even windier, but I guess we can't get everything we want. Sure, the Bills could cover, but so can the Dolphins, and either way, I don't expect this to be a high-scoring game.
Eagles at Bears, Sunday, 1 p.m. | TV: Fox
The Pick: Over 48.5 (-110) -- The over has been nearly automatic in Bears games lately when Justin Fields starts. His ability to make things happen, combined with the Bears defense being abysmal, has led to the over hitting in eight of the last nine Bears games, including the last seven.
And now coming to town is a Philadelphia offense that nobody has been able to stop. I am not joking when I say the Eagles could hit the over on their own in this one. Philly scored 40 points against the Giants last week and has scored 123 points in its last three games (41 per).
🏈 Bowl Games
Cincinnati vs. Louisville, Saturday, 11 a.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Louisville -2 (-110) -- The old Keg of Nails rivalry is back for the first time since 2013 -- before Louisville left to join the ACC and the Big East morphed into the American. As if that wasn't enough, coach Scott Satterfield left Louisville to take the job at Cincinnati. With the game being played at Fenway Park, the two teams will share a sideline. In my opinion, they should force Satterfield to stand between both sidelines. If Cincinnati wins, it doesn't have to pay his buyout. If Louisville wins, it gets double. Who says no? Let's make it interesting!
As for the game, Louisville QB Malik Cunningham has opted out, which stinks, but Brock Domann has plenty of experience and weeks to prepare for this start in relief. The Bearcats reached the playoff last season, and this team was one of the AAC's best; however, I have concerns about them offensively. My gut says the Cardinals offense will do more in this one than the Bearcats, so I'm leaning in that direction.
No. 14 Oregon State vs. Florida, Saturday, 2:30 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Under 53 (-110) -- The worst part of this game is that Oregon State has flown under the radar all season, but if it manages to pick up a win over an SEC team in the bowl game, it'll be written off because Florida is far from full strength. The Gators will be missing a lot of key players between opt outs and the transfer portal, including starting QB Anthony Richardson. Considering how inefficient the Gators' offense was all year (79th nationally in success rate), it's hard to imagine things improving without the one player who seemed capable of making something out of nothing.
As for the Beavers, Chance Nolan began the year as the starting QB but missed the last seven games due to injury and was replaced by Ben Gulbranson. Nolan has since entered the portal, and the Beavers offense hasn't been great with the freshman Gulbranson. If I were to bet on any of this first week's bowl games to be an ugly, low-scoring affair, it's this one.
Boise State vs. North Texas, Saturday, 9:15 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Boise State -10.5 (-110) -- It's a battle of conference championship losers! Boise State lost to Fresno State in the Mountain West Championship Game and faces the North Texas squad that lost to UTSA in the Conference USA Championship Game.
The biggest difference is that Boise State didn't fire its coach after the loss, while North Texas did. The Mean Green will be in this game under an interim coach, and you have to wonder what frame of mind they'll be in because of it. Boise State will be without leading rusher George Holani due to injury, but the Broncos have an elite defense that I suspect will overwhelm North Texas up front. The Broncos also have the more electric QB in the matchup in Taylen Green -- no disrespect to 29-year-old UNT QB Austin Aune -- and I'm not sure the Mean Green will be able to keep up here.
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: The Projection Model sees a lot of value on the spread in tonight's game between the Charlotte Hornets and Atlanta Hawks.
