The NFL season is headed into Week 12, and somehow, every single team still has a shot to make the playoffs.
That's right, 11 weeks are in the books and not a single team has been eliminated from playoff contention. That means you don't have to give up on the season just yet, Raiders fans. As a matter of fact, no one will have to give up this week, because there are no elimination scenarios in Week 12, marking just the fourth time since the playoff field expanded in 1990 that we'll have made it through 12 weeks without a single team being eliminated.
There are no playoff elimination scenarios in Week 12. Since the 12-team playoff format began in 1990, this will be only the 4th time that all teams are still in Super Bowl contention with 5 weeks to play (1995: all 30 teams still alive; 2004, 2015, 2018: all 32).
— Ivan Urena (@Ivan_Urena1) November 20, 2018
So who has the best shot at making the playoffs? Glad you asked.
We'll be projecting the postseason chances for all 32 teams this week. These playoff projections will be based on data from number-cruncher Stephen Oh of SportsLine.com. Basically, Oh plugged some numbers into his SportsLine computer this week and simulated the rest of the NFL season, and using those numbers, we're going to let you know the playoff chances for all 32 teams, plus the projected 12-team playoff field.
Alright, let's get to this week's playoff projections.
Note: Remember, this is a projection based on how we think the rest of the regular season will play out. If you want to see the current playoff standings, click here to see Will Brinson's thorough breakdown of what the playoff race looks like as we head into Week 12.
AFC Playoff Projection
Projected wins in parentheses
1. Kansas City Chiefs: (12.7 wins) AFC West Champs
The computer didn't really seem to care that the Chiefs lost to the Rams on Monday. Despite the loss, the Chiefs are still being given the best chance to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. The computer says the Chiefs have a 33.26 percent chance of playing in Atlanta on Super Bowl Sunday while the Patriots chances are slightly lower at 30.33 percent. No other team in the AFC is over 15 percent. Week 12: bye.
2. New England Patriots: (11.4) AFC East Champs
The Patriots took one week off and all of the sudden, the computer no longer views them as the NFL's top team. Although the Patriots had the best chances of winning the Super Bowl in last week's projections, they've fallen to third in that department. The computer is giving New England a 16.24 percent chance of winning it all, which ranks behind New Orleans (25.33 percent) and Kansas City (17.36 percent). The Rams are being given the fourth best chance to win at 16.16 percent. Week 12: Sunday at Jets, 1 p.m. ET, CBS, stream on CBS All Access or stream on fuboTV (try for free).
3. Pittsburgh Steelers: (10.5) AFC North Champs
The Steelers might have had an ugly win on Sunday, but the good news for them is that the computer counts ugly wins the same as every other win. Thanks to their 20-16 win over the Jaguars, the Steelers chances of winning the AFC North got a major boost. The computer basically views the Steelers as a lock to win the division, giving them a 93.3 percent chance. As for the other teams in the AFC North, their title hopes are on life support with the Ravens being given a 4 percent chance and the Bengals a 2.7 percent chance. Week 12: Sunday at Denver, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS, stream on CBS All Access or stream on fuboTV (try for free).
4. Houston Texans: (10.3) AFC South Champs
A seven-game winning streak can really do wonders for your playoff chances, at least in the eyes of our computer. At 7-3, the Texans are being given an 83.2 percent chance of getting into the postseason. On the other hand, the computer isn't as confident about their chances of winning the AFC South. Although the Texans are a heavy favorite and being given a 65.3 percent chance to win the division, the Colts (18.8 percent) and Titans (15.6 percent) are still very much alive in the eyes of the computer. Week 12: Monday vs. Tennessee, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN.
5. Los Angeles Chargers: (10.7) Wild Card
The Chargers stunning loss to the Broncos didn't seem to bother the computer too much. Despite the loss, the Chargers playoff chances are still sitting at 92.2 percent. The only thing the loss really did was kill pretty much any chance L.A. had of winning the AFC West. The computer says the Chargers chances of winning the division are down to 9.2 percent. Week 12: Sunday vs. Arizona, 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox, stream on fuboTV (try for free).
6. Indianapolis Colts: (8.7) Wild Card
This is the fourth week of our playoff projections, and for the fourth week in a row, we have a new team in the AFC's final playoff spot. IT'S TOTAL CHAOS. First, we had the Ravens. Then, we had the Bengals. Then, we had the Titans, and now, we have the Colts. After steamrolling the Titans, the Colts vaulted into this spot, but we probably shouldn't write anything in stone just yet, because the computer views this as a wide open race between three of the five teams that are currently sitting at 5-5. The Colts have a 36.4 percent chance of making the playoffs, which is just barely ahead of the Ravens (28.7 percent) and Titans (24.5 percent). Week 12: Sunday vs. Miami, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS, stream on CBS All Access or stream on fuboTV (try for free).
Just missed: Titans (8.4), Ravens (8.4)
Here's a list of all the other AFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Bengals (13.1 percent), Dolphins (11.1 percent), Broncos (4.2 percent), Browns (1.6 percent), Jaguars (1.1 percent), Jets (0.1 percent), Bills (0.0 percent), Raiders (0.0 percent).
Although the Raiders and Bills haven't officially been eliminated from the playoffs, the computer says there's no chance for them. Sorry.
NFC Playoff Projection
1. Los Angeles Rams: (13.6 wins) NFC West Champs
The Rams are currently projected to finish with the most wins in the NFC, but that doesn't mean they're the NFC team that the computer likes the most. According to SportsLine, the Rams have a much lower chance of being the NFC's Super Bowl team than the Saints. The Rams chances are sitting at 32.75 percent, while the Saints chances are sitting at 43.92 percent. Sometimes the computer can be confusing and this is one of those times. The problem for the Rams is that they can't actually win 13.6 games and finish .4 games ahead of the Saints. If the two teams end the season in a tie, the Saints will get the top seed due to their head-to-head tiebreaker. Week 12: bye.
2. New Orleans Saints: (13.2) NFC South Champs
The computer has officially fallen in love with the Saints. After watching New Orleans steamroll the Eagles, the computer is now ranking the Saints as the NFL's best team. The Saints are being given the best chance of any team in the NFL to win the Super Bowl (25.33 percent) and they're also, as previously mentioned, being given the best chance to come out of the NFC. Week 12: Thursday vs. Atlanta, 8:15 p.m. ET, NBC, stream on fuboTV (try for free).
3. Chicago Bears: (10.3) NFC North Champs
The Bears Sunday night win over the Vikings has nearly turned them into a lock to win the division. The computer is giving the Bears a 77.3 percent chance to win the NFC North, which is up big from last week's number of 60.9 percent. With the Vikings and Packers playing in Week 12, the loser of that game will probably see their division title hopes go down the drain. Week 12: Thursday at Detroit, 12:30 p.m. ET, CBS, stream on CBS All Access or stream on fuboTV (try for free).
4. Washington Redskins: (8.4) NFC East Champs
Alex Smith might be done for the season, but the computer is still rolling with the Redskins. In the tightest division race we have, the computer is giving the Redskins a 49 percent chance of winning the NFC East, which makes this division the only one in the NFL where no team is over 50 percent. The computer also likes the Cowboys (36.3 percent) and is even giving the Eagles (14.4 percent) a chance to win the division. On the other hand, the Giants (0.3 percent) have been left for dead despite their two-game winning streak. The winner of the Thanksgiving showdown between Dallas and Washington will likely see their division odds skyrocket next week. Week 12: Thursday at Dallas, 4:30 p.m. ET, Fox, stream on fuboTV (try for free).
5. Seattle Seahawks: (8.6) Wild Card
After a win over Green Bay, the computer loves the Seahawks chances of getting into the postseason and is giving them a 50.7 percent chance. That's notable, because it means the Seahawks are currently the only wild-card contender in the NFC that is being given above a 50 percent chance to get into the playoffs. Of course, being the only team above 50 percent won't matter at all if the Seahawks lose to the Panthers on Sunday. Week 12: Sunday at Carolina, 1 p.m. ET, Fox, stream on fuboTV (try for free).
6. Carolina Panthers: (8.6) Wild Card
After a stunning loss to the Lions, the Panthers are barely hanging on by a thread to this playoff spot. The computer is giving the Panthers a 46.8 percent chance of getting into the postseason, which is just barely ahead of Cowboys, who have a 45.4 percent chance. The Vikings (44 percent) and Packers (29.9 percent) are also in the wild-card race, but we'll likely be able to write one of them off after this week because they're playing on Sunday, and one of them has to lose. Well, unless they tie again. Week 12: Sunday vs. Seattle, 1 p.m. ET, Fox, stream on fuboTV (try for free).
Just missed: Cowboys (8.3), Viking (7.9), Packers (7.4)
Here's a list of all the other NFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Eagles (16.1 percent), Falcons (9.3 percent), Lions (6.3 percent), Giants (0.4 percent)Buccaneers (0.2 percent), 49ers (0.0 percent), Cardinals (0.0 percent).
Wild-Card Round Projection
AFC
(6) Colts at (3) Steelers
(5) Chargers at (4) Texans
Byes: Chiefs, Patriots
NFC
(6) Seahawks at (3) Bears
(5) Panthers at (4) Redskins
Byes: Rams, Saints