2021 Super Bowl expert picks advice: Odds updates, prop bets, injuries for Bucs and Chiefs in Super Bowl LV

Super Bowl LV is just a few hours away, and it's about time you started locking in your bets for the big game from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa.  From the typical lines, Over/Unders and player props that we are accustomed to, to all of the interesting props such as the the length of the national anthem and what the result of the opening coin toss will be, this live blog will have all the information you could possibly want when it comes to making money on Super Bowl LV.

Watch Super Bowl LV for free on the CBS Sports App.

We're here to track all of the betting and daily fantasy angles you need to gain the upper hand not only against your friends, but against sportsbooks in Vegas as well. From line movements, injury updates, inactive lists, starting lineup news and all the buzz on the betting market from our SportsLine experts, there is plenty to break down. When this matchup was put up on the board at William Hill Sportsbook two Sundays ago, the Chiefs were listed as 3-point favorites with -165 on the moneyline, while the Buccaneers were +145 on the moneyline. As of Sunday morning, the 3-point spread remains, but the Chiefs are now -155 on the moneyline while the Bucs are +135. William Hill did bump the Chiefs up to 3.5-point favorites at one point last week. As for the total, the Over/Under has dropped a full point from the 57 points where it opened. Six of the last seven Super Bowls with a total of 50-plus points have stayed Under dating back to 2001!

Here's everything you need to know from a gambling perspective about the 2021 Super Bowl:

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Super Bowl oddsmaker Nick Bogdanovich answers your questions
https://www.sportsline.com/nfl...

William Hill Sportsbook director of trading Nick Bogdanovich took time recently to answer several questions posted by SportsLine's social media followers, including whether he 'capped for a home-field advantage with the Buccaneers this year, the process of getting hundreds of props on the board for the Super Bowl, and how someone might break into the industry. He also hopped on The Early Edge, SportsLine's daily sports wagering podcast, to pull back the curtain even more on Super Bowl week. You can check out the Q&A and Bogdanovich's podcast appearance over at SportsLine.

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An historic punt return TD or shutout would pay bettors handsomely:
https://www.sportsline.com/nfl...

There have been more power blackout delays at the Super Bowl than punt return TDs. Crazy, right? Punt return touchdowns are more rare nowadays in the NFL than safeties, as while about half of the teams in the league had a safety this season, there were just eight punt return TDs during 2020. But one of those eight players to return a punt for a touchdown will be on the field for Super Bowl LV in Chiefs returner Mecole Hardman. William Hill Sportsbook is offering a prop around whether there's a punt or kickoff return TD, and Matt Severance looks into that prop along with the odds for a shutout over at SportsLine.

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A random long-shot prop I'm on today. It's the Super Bowl, so anything can happen!

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Legendary NFL handicapper locks in his best bets for Super Bowl

https://www.sportsline.com/ins...

Longtime Vegas expert Hammerin' Hank Goldberg is on a 51-34-2 run with his NFL best bets over the last year and a half, and he's locked in three more for Super Bowl LV, taking the side, the total and one prop he loves at longer than 2/1 odds. We can tell you his theory of the game involves the Under hitting, but to get the rest of his picks, which offer a parlay payout of 11/1 if it hits, head over to SportsLine.

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Bettors hammering Shaq Barrett among defensive MVP options

https://www.sportsline.com/nfl...

While a defensive player has won MVP in only nine of 54 Super Bowls all-time, a one-out-of-six occurrence is not nothing. And although the high total of 56 in this year's Super Bowl suggests it's unlikely a defender walk away with the hardware this year, that hasn't stopped bettors from hammering Bucs pass rusher Shaq Barrett, who has moved to 40/1 after opening as a 60/1 play to win MVP of the game. That 40/1 number puts him as one of two players with the shortest odds among defensive players in the matchup, with the other being Chiefs safety Tyrann Mathieu. Matt Severance dives more into the defensive side of the MVP prop over at SportsLine.

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Coin toss pick

https://www.sportsline.com/ins...

Heads or tails? One of the most popular props every year is on the pregame coin toss, and while deep down we know the odds of one particular side coming up are 50%, that doesn't stop us from looking for an edge. For instance, did you know Tails has hit in 29 of 54 Super Bowls all-time, including in six of the last seven Super Bowls? R.J. White breaks down the numbers and finds one possible prop that's coin-toss adjacent that you'll want to check out over at SportsLine.

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How Super Bowl referee impacts the odds:
https://www.sportsline.com/nfl...

Carl Cheffers is slated to be the white hat for Super Bowl 55, his second career assignment in the biggest game of the year. His previous Super Bowl as referee just happened to have one of the wildest comebacks in history, as the Patriots erased a 28-3 deficit to beat the Falcons in the only overtime game in Super Bowl history. SportsLine's Matt Severance has identified several trends bettors will want to know about this year's Super Bowl referee before placing their bets.

For starters, Cheffers has called five games since Patrick Mahomes took over at quarterback for Kansas City, and the Chiefs are 5-0 straight up in those games. The first three wins were by double digits, but his two Chiefs games this year involved Kansas City's overtime win against the Chargers in Week 2, and the four-point win over the Raiders in Week 11. The Under has been an incredibly strong trend in Cheffers' playoff games, going 8-1 since his promotion to referee in 2008. That lone Over was the aforementioned Patriots-Falcons Super Bowl, which actually came in Under in regulation before passing the total in overtime. You can read more about Cheffers' impact on betting results over at SportsLine.

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Bettors lining up to fade Tom Brady rushing TD:
https://www.sportsline.com/nfl...

Tom Brady is the most prolific playoff quarterback in the history of the league, but one area of his game where he's never made a huge impact is with his legs. He's averaged just 1.6 yards per carry in his career, though he has managed 25 rushing touchdowns in the regular season, including three in 2020. He hasn't reached the end zone during the playoffs since 2015, however, and bettors have been lining up to fade him getting a rushing touchdown in the Super Bowl. After William Hill opened the "Will Brady score a rushing TD?" prop at +210 for Yes and -250 for No, the line has made a major move toward the negative, with No checking it at -440. Find out more about Tom Brady's rushing props over at SportsLine.

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SportsLine model picks
https://www.sportsline.com/ins...

The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning well over $800. The model also enters the 2021 Super Bowl on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. You can check out which way the SportsLine Projection Model is leaning on the Super Bowl by heading over to SportsLine.

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Chiefs expert pick

https://www.sportsline.com/ins...

SportsLine's Larry Hartstein has put together an incredible run on ATS picks involving the Chiefs, going 16-3 on his last 19 ATS picks for or against the AFC Champion. The Early Edge's "Maestro" has also been red-hot on his overall ATS picks, putting together a 22-12-2 run on his last 36 ATS picks in the NFL overall heading into the Super Bowl. While he's leaning to the Over on the total of 56, he also has a strong play on the spread as he seeks to increase his hit rate to 85% in his last 20 ATS picks in Chiefs games. Check out which side of the spread he's taking over at SportsLine.

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Bucs expert pick

https://www.sportsline.com/ins...

R.J. White enters the Super Bowl as SportsLine's No. 1 NFL expert, putting together an 80-58 run on all NFL picks and returning more than $1,500 for $100 bettors during that stretch. He's also in the middle of a profitable run on ATS picks in Bucs games, going on a 24-14 run on those picks over the last few years. He's leaning toward the Under in this game, but you can find his ATS pick on the Super Bowl right now over at SportsLine.

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Chiefs vs. Bucs player prop best bets from advanced computer model:

https://www.sportsline.com/ins...

SportsLine's Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It has also crushed its NFL prop picks this season, entering the 2021 Super Bowl on a strong 386-309 roll, returning a massive profit of almost $3,200 this season.

After simulating this year's Super Bowl matchup 10,000 times, the model has delivered its top 20 player prop picks for Chiefs vs. Buccaneers, taking strong positions on Tom Brady's passing yards, attempts and interceptions; Patrick Mahomes' passing yards, attempts and touchdowns; and plenty more. Check out all 20 player props picks over at SportsLine.

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MVP pick
https://www.sportsline.com/ins...

"The Maestro" Larry Hartsein has been on a roll with his NFL picks over at SportsLine, going 22-12-2 on his last 36 ATS picks heading into the Super Bowl. He's been even better in Chiefs games, where he's put together a 16-3 run on ATS picks. Now Hartstein has made his pick for Super Bowl MVP, and it's not Chiefs star Tyreek Hill despite his 269-yard, three-TD explosion in the first meeting between these teams. You can find that pick by heading over to SportsLine.

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SportsLine Prop Guide
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/...

SportsLine's Prop Guide is now live! You can get trends, research and picks from the SportsLine model and experts before the big game on everything from the coin toss to the MVP and plenty in between, including player props, half and quarter odds, largest lead, first and last team to score, successful field goals, sacks, longest TD play and a lot more delivered straight to your inbox. Get all the information you need before you lock in your picks in SportsLine's Prop Guide.

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Positive news for both the Buccaneers and Chiefs from an injury perspective on Wednesday:

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A barber's positive COVID-19 test led to two Chiefs going on reserve/COVID list, per report:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/...

Chiefs WR Demarcus Robinson and backup center Daniel Kilgore were put on the reserve/COVID list on Monday. Could they potentially miss the Super Bowl? Here's everything you need to know:

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Super Bowl 2021: Top five prop bets, from Tom Brady's first pass to the coin toss and more

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/...

I have been looking over all of the Super Bowl props offered by William Hill Sportsbook and have identified five that I'm going to put money on. Some will be your normal game props such as Over/Under on a wideout's receptions or running back's rushing yards, but others will be inconsequential to the game itself.

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SportsLine's top 30 expert prop picks:

https://www.sportsline.com/ins...

SportsLine's sharpest NFL experts have released their top prop picks for the Super Bowl, with 30 picks ranging from player props (including Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce), longest FG, first penalty, largest lead, winning margin, MVP winner and a lot more, with one longshot 100-to-1 play you have to check out.

Featured experts include longtime Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White, The Early Edge's "Maestro" Larry Hartstein (on a 22-12 ATS run in NFL), DFS millionaire Mike McClure, CBS Sports HQ football analyst Emory Hunt, SportsLine's all-time No. 1 NFL expert Mike Tierney and SportsLine's hottest NFL expert R.J. White (who's on an 80-56 run on all NFL picks). See which value prop picks they've identified by heading over to SportsLine now.