The Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs are set to duke it out in a win-and-survive showdown at Arrowhead Stadium to wrap up Saturday's Super Wild Card Weekend slate. Of course, these teams are a big part of the reunion theme that has taken over this opening round of the playoffs, specifically with Tyreek Hill making his return to K.C. for the first time since being traded to the Dolphins in 2022. That should set the stage for an emotional homecoming, but there are even more storylines at play here.
The weather is set to be a monumental factor in this game as well with the forecast calling for -2 degree conditions along with 10-15 mph winds and a 24% chance of precipitation. That doesn't exactly fare well for Miami as it is 0-10 all time in playoff games with a kickoff temperature of 45 degrees or colder.
That said, there is room for optimism for the Dolphins as they gear up for the first step into the postseason. Below, we'll highlight three reasons why they could go into Arrowhead on Saturday night and pull off the upset.
How to watch
Date: Saturday, Jan. 13 | Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
Location: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri)
Stream: Peacock | Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Chiefs -4.5, O/U 44 (via SportsLine consensus odds)
1. Offensive attack overcomes Chiefs defense
As odd as it may sound, the key matchup in this game has nothing to do with Patrick Mahomes, who is arguably the best quarterback in the entire NFL. Instead, it revolves around Miami's high-flying offense squaring up against a Chiefs defense that has been the best of the Mahomes-Reid era. The Dolphins finished the year with the No. 1 ranked offense in the NFL in total yards per game and were second in points per game. Meanwhile, the K.C. defense ranked second in both yards per game allowed and points. And there's a strong argument to be made that the Dolphins can get the better of them in this game.
Miami was actually a more efficient offense on the road than at home in recent respects. They had a better red zone scoring percentage (69.5%) away from Hard Rock Stadium and were better on third down (43.75%). Conversely, the Chiefs have been softer in those categories at Arrowhead as opposed to being on the road, albeit still being a strong unit. It's worth noting that the Dolphins may also get back two key pieces to their offense in both Jaylen Waddle and running Raheem Mostert practicing on Thursday and are officially listed as questionable after missing the past two weeks.
2. Tua takes advantage of DB blitzes
A lot will be made about how Tua Tagovailoa will perform in the cold weather, but I'm more interested to see if he can continue his overall success against blitzing defensive backs. He had the second-best passer rating (120.2) in the NFL against pass-rushing defensive backs this season, which is something Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo deploys the third most of any team in the league. In this situation, Tagovailoa is completing 62% of his passes at 9.2 yards per attempt, with four touchdowns compared to zero interceptions along with that stellar passer rating. Earlier this season when these teams went head-to-head in Week 9, Spagnuolo's defense was able to get the better of Tagovailoa in that instance with two sacks, but if he can neutralize that this time around that'll give Miami a leg up.
3. Chiefs pass-catchers continue to struggle
This final leg has more to do with the Chiefs beating themselves than anything the Dolphins can do, but it still applies to how they could come out K.C. with a victory. If the Chiefs receivers continue their poor play from the regular season in this playoff opener, it could result in an early exit. The Kansas City wideouts finished the season with the most drops (28) and the highest drop rate (12.0%) in the NFL. No other team has a drop rate worse than 8.8%. That specifically hurt the Chiefs' down-field passing attack as Mahomes recorded the worst TD-INT ratio (1-6) of his career when targeting receivers 10+ yards down the field. The Chiefs offense also had the fewest points per game under Andy Reid. So, if this unit doesn't flip a switch, it might not take that much from the Dolphins offense to leave them in the dust.
