Almost exactly five years ago, the Panthers drafted Cam Newton with the first pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. The Broncos then selected Von Miller. The Bills rounded off the top-three by grabbing Marcell Dareus.

Without even getting into the picks that followed (A.J. Green, Patrick Peterson, Julio Jones), that's already one heck of a start to a draft. We already know how well off Newton and Miller are, but don't overlook Dareus, who turned into a two-time Pro Bowler and was named First-Team All-Pro in 2014.

Still, the Bills, five years later, sound a tad disappointed with the outcome of that draft. Because at one point, they thought they were going to snag Newton. According to Bills general manager Doug Whaley -- then the assistant GM -- Andrew Luck's decision to remain at Stanford for another season cost the Bills their chance to draft Newton.

"When we first started the draft process, we thought we'd have a good shot at Newton," Whaley told Sports Illustrated for its oral history of the 2011 draft. "[Stanford quarterback] Andrew Luck, had he come out, would have been the first pick. Denver was at No. 2, and they didn't need a QB. So we thought, 'We'll get Cam at No. 3.'"

While there's no way to know for sure how the draft would've played out if Luck had entered, let's imagine if he had. Without a doubt, Luck -- one of the most highly touted quarterback prospects ever -- would've been the first pick. After that, it gets more complicated. Whaley and the Bills don't think the Broncos would've taken Newton, but John Elway isn't so sure they would've passed on him.

Here's what Elway told NFL Network's Albert Breer before the Super Bowl:

And here's what Elway told SI:

"He (Miller) was as athletic as anybody I've ever seen. That size and speed; that talent. ... Obviously Cam was up there too. We looked there [despite having Tim Tebow and Kyle Orton on the roster].

Elway didn't say that he would've automatically selected Newton, but the possibility would've existed. After all, 2011 ended up being that ridiculous Tim Tebow season, so it's not as if the Broncos knew they had an established quarterback on the roster already.

By the sound of it, if the Broncos had taken Newton with the second pick, the Bills still wouldn't have drafted Miller, the reigning Super Bowl MVP.

"When Von went to Denver, everyone [in our draft room] had big smiles, everyone stood up," Whaley told SI. "We had Marcell rated over Von. I was like, 'Don't even listen to the [trade offers coming in], just turn that card in.'"

Again, Dareus is a fine player. There's no guarantee the Bills would've been able to draft Newton if Luck had came out of college, because they would've needed the Broncos to pass on Newton at No. 2 and that sounds iffy. But if Newton had fallen to No. 3, he could've changed the course of their franchise.  Since that draft, the Bills have trotted out quarterbacks like Ryan Fitzpatrick (the definition of inconsistent), EJ Manuel (young, but disappointing), Kyle Orton (forgot about him), and Tyrod Taylor (promising, but still developing).

Did Andrew Luck spoil the Bills' chance to draft Cam Newton? (USATSI)

Whaley's comments serve as yet another reminder of how much luck plays a factor in a team's rise and downfall. 

Wink of the CBS eye to Sports Illustrated