The Dallas' (12-5) defensive front finished the regular season with the third-highest pressure rate in the NFL, but the Cowboys will begin their run through the NFL playoffs 2023 against the most prolific postseason passer in league history. Dallas will face off against Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9) on Monday Night Football, with the winner advancing in the 2023 NFL playoff bracket to play the 49ers on Sunday. The matchup will pit strength against strength, as the Buccaneers' offensive line heads into the NFL playoffs 2023 with the lowest adjusted sack rate among all teams at 3.4%.
Kickoff from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida, is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Dallas is a three-point favorite in the latest Buccaneers vs. Cowboys odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is set at 45.5. Before you make any Cowboys vs. Buccaneers bets or predictions, make sure you check out what SportsLine's resident Cowboys expert, Larry Hartstein, has to say.
A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed while working for Pro Football Focus. Entering the 2022 NFL season, he is 427-344 all-time on NFL sides (plus $3,764 for $100 players), including 394-330 against the spread. Hartstein went 68-50 ATS (58 percent) and 8-3 on money line plays last season for a profit of $1,552.
In addition, Hartstein has gone an amazing 15-3 on his last 18 picks involving the Cowboys, returning $1,170. Anyone who has followed him is way up.
Now, Hartstein has zoned in on Cowboys vs. Buccaneers and just locked in his picks and NFL playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are the NFL odds and betting lines for Cowboys vs. Buccaneers:
- Buccaneers vs. Cowboys spread: Cowboys -3
- Buccaneers vs. Cowboys over-under: 45.5 points
- Buccaneers vs. Cowboys money line: Dallas -140, Tampa Bay +118
- DAL: Cowboys are 10-1 against the spread in their last 11 games following a straight-up loss
- TB: Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last five playoff games
- Buccaneers vs. Cowboys picks: See picks here
Why the Cowboys can cover
Quarterback Dak Prescott passed for 2,860 yards and 23 touchdowns for a 91.1 rating in 12 starts this past season. He has nine total touchdowns in four career playoff starts, including three games with both a passing and rushing touchdown. Prescott passed for 403 yards and three touchdowns in his only career start at Tampa Bay on Sept. 9, 2021.
Running back Tony Pollard is coming off his best regular season. He had career-highs in scrimmage yards (1,378), rushing yards (1,007), receiving yards (371), rushing touchdowns (9) and receiving touchdowns (3) in 2022. He had 100 or more yards from scrimmage in three of his final four regular season road games. See which team to pick here.
Why the Buccaneers can cover
Tampa Bay finished the regular season tied with Baltimore for the worst record against the spread at home at 1-6-1. However, Tom Brady has an all-time 24-8 overall record in home playoff games, which might be enough for some to back the Buccaneers on the money line as three-point underdogs. As a road favorite this season, Dallas is just 2-3 overall and against the spread, and the Cowboys will be sure to have the memory of their previous meeting with Brady in the back of their heads.
Over the last two weeks of the season, the Cowboys held quarterbacks to a reasonable 378 total passing yards, but Weeks 15 and 16 were a different story. Trevor Lawrence and Gardner Minshew carved up the Cowboys' secondary for over 665 total passing yards and Brady has only averaged 2.2 seconds in the pocket before getting rid of the ball. Dallas' pass-rush is strong, but the back seven finished the regular season with the fourth-fewest passes defensed, so Brady shouldn't think twice about chucking the ball around on MNF. See which team to pick here.
How to make Cowboys vs. Buccaneers picks
For Monday Night Football, Hartstein is leaning over on the point total, but he also says a critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back. You can find out what it is, and see which side to back, at SportsLine.
So, who wins Cowboys vs. Buccaneers in the 2023 NFL playoffs? And what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Cowboys vs. Buccaneers spread you need to jump on Monday, all from the expert who returned over $1,150 to $100 players in his last 18 picks involving Dallas, and find out.
