Weather figures to play a large role when the third-seeded Kansas City Chiefs host the sixth-seeded Miami Dolphins on Saturday in an AFC matchup during Super Wild Card Weekend of the 2024 NFL playoffs. Temperatures at Arrowhead Stadium are expected to be in the single-digits and could dip below zero, which would give a distinct advantage to reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City (11-6). The Dolphins (11-6) have dropped 10 consecutive games when it was below 40 degrees at kickoff and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has lost the five coldest starts of his NFL career. The Chiefs posted a 21-14 victory over Miami in Germany in Week 9, extending their winning streak in the series to four games.
Kickoff is at 8 p.m. ET in Kansas City. Kansas City is a 4.5-point favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 43.5 in the latest Dolphins vs. Chiefs odds from the SportsLine consensus. Before making any Chiefs vs. Dolphins picks or NFL bets, you need to see what SportsLine expert Larry Hartstein has to say, considering his mastery of picks involving Miami.
A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed working for Pro Football Focus. He tied for 52nd place (out of 1,598 entries) in the 2022 Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest, going 53-34-3 ATS. Those selections form the basis of his weekly SportsLine NFL best bets, which are 69-43-2 since the start of last season, including a 14-4 record the last six weeks.
Most importantly, Hartstein has a read on the pulse of the Dolphins. He is 28-17-1 (+904) on his last 46 NFL picks in games involving Miami. Anyone who has consistently followed him is way up.
Now, Hartstein has set his sights on Dolphins vs. Chiefs and just locked in his picks and NFL predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Chiefs vs. Dolphins:
- Dolphins vs. Chiefs spread: Kansas City -4.5
- Dolphins vs. Chiefs over/under: 43.5 points
- Dolphins vs. Chiefs money line: Kansas City -226, Miami +184
- MIA: Dolphins have hit the 1H Over in 15 of their last 21 games
- KC: Chiefs have hit the 4Q Under in 17 of their last 20 games
- Dolphins vs. Chiefs picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Chiefs can cover
Kansas City was sixth in passing (246.4 yards) and ninth in total offense (351.3) during the regular season, thanks in large part to Patrick Mahomes. The two-time Super Bowl MVP ranked sixth in the league with 4,183 passing yards and eighth with 27 touchdown tosses despite the team's mediocre receiving corps. Mahomes currently is tied with Aaron Rodgers for most playoff victories among active quarterbacks (11) and can pull even with Tom Brady for most career postseason wins by a QB before the age of 30.
Mahomes' favorite target is Travis Kelce, who has hauled in a TD pass in six consecutive playoff games. The 34-year-old tight end is second in NFL postseason history with 133 receptions, 1,548 receiving yards, 16 touchdown catches and seven 100-yard performances, trailing only Jerry Rice in each category. Running back Isiah Pacheco, who missed three games this season but still rushed for 935 yards and seven TDs, gained 197 yards in last year's playoffs to set the franchise record for a single postseason. See which team to pick here.
Why the Dolphins can cover
Dolphins defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has had the defense playing well all year. The Dolphins finished the season ranked 10th in total defense (318.3) and seventh in run defense (97.1). Linebacker David Long Jr. was a consistent contributor in the middle of the field. Long Jr. owns plenty of speed and play recognition to find the ball. He led the team in total tackles (113) with nine tackles for loss. He logged double-digit stops in three games thus far. In Week 18, Long Jr. had 10 total stops.
Cornerback Jalen Ramsey brings that juice and experience to the backend. Ramsey can lock down one side of the field and force quarterbacks to avoid his direction. The Florida State product logged 22 total tackles, five pass deflections, and three interceptions in 10 games this year. See which team to pick here.
How to make Dolphins vs. Chiefs picks
Hartstein has analyzed this matchup and is leaning Under the point total, but he has discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. He's sharing what it is, and which side to back, only at SportsLine.
Who wins Chiefs vs. Dolphins in Saturday's AFC Wild-Card matchup, and which critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chiefs vs. Dolphins spread to back, all from the expert on a 28-17 roll on picks involving Miami, and find out.
