Smart bet for NFL Comeback Player award, AFC East and AFC North predictions, preseason depth chart takeaways

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Happy Wednesday, folks. Preseason is upon us, "Hard Knocks" is underway, and boy oh boy do we have plenty of NFL news to explore. John Breech is taking a one-day holdout while trying to further negotiations between Joe Burrow and the Bengals (we think), so in the meantime, you've got me, Cody Benjamin, to deliver all the latest.

This is the Pick Six Newsletter. Now let's get to it. (And please, do yourself a favor and make sure you're signed up to receive this newsletter every day! You don't want to miss our daily offerings of everything you need to know around the NFL.)

We've got awards predictions, depth-chart takeaways, more camp reports and much more:

1. Today's show: AFC East, AFC North win totals, predictions, preview

Brady Quinn and Leger Douzable joined Will Brinson on the latest "Pick Six NFL Podcast" to break down every single team in the AFC East and AFC North divisions, offering picks and predictions for the 2023 season. Some highlights:

The guys are split on the Bills this year. Quinn likes Buffalo to go Over 10.5 wins while padding its record outside the division. But Douzable feels better going Under, highlighting the Bills' "gauntlet" down the stretch.
The Patriots are clearly the weakest team in the East they once dominated, according to Douzable, who went so far as to suggest Bill Belichick will be legitimately "in trouble" if New England fails to make noise in 2023.
Quinn is very concerned with the Dolphins' QB situation, arguing Miami should've been more aggressive in pursuing veteran insurance behind Tua Tagovailoa, but he likes the Ravens. The injury concerns there have him going Under 9.5 wins.

Catch the full episode (and subscribe for all kinds of daily NFL talk) right here.

2. Early awards predictions: Russell Wilson primed for big rebound

Sean Payton may have crossed the line when ripping the previous Broncos regime, but that doesn't mean he isn't poised to thrust Denver back into relevance. Will Brinson has identified smart bets for Comeback Player of the Year, and he likes Payton's new quarterback if the honor doesn't go to Bills safety Damar Hamlin:

This is a Sean Payton-based archetype bet. Wilson famously has never received a single MVP vote and hasn't really been in contention for any awards (although he should have won OROY over RG3 in 2012, but that's another story). But quarterbacks with bounce-back seasons are primed for this award. Russ would normally be something like 10-1 or lower if Hamlin wasn't involved in the equation. Because of the market favorite, Wilson is getting exactly the odds we want to attack at the top of the market. Payton has come out strong for Russ this preseason, meaning we can buy into the Broncos coach having confidence in his quarterback. If Wilson produces a Pro Bowl-caliber season and the Broncos make the playoffs he'll be under heavy consideration.

3. Depth chart takeaways: Rookie QBs set to start, Bijan as RB3?

NFL teams have released unofficial depth charts now that the preseason is upon us, and while coaches will insist they mean very little, it's impossible not to read into certain training camp battles. Fortunately, Tyler Sullivan has surveyed all of the tentative lineups to find the most important nuggets going into 2023. Here are some of his observations:

First-round QBs on track to start Week 1: Bryce Young is already confirmed as the Panthers' starter, while C.J. Stroud is listed above Davis Mills in Houston, and Anthony Richardson is listed alongside Gardner Minshew as the Colts' top option.
Buccaneers QB battle is far from over: Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask were listed next to each other in the QB1 spot for Tampa Bay, signifying that a starter has yet to be identified for the opener.
Bijan Robinson has to earn his carries: At least for now, the first-round running back is listed as a third-stringer behind Cordarrelle Patterson and Tyler Allgeier, who've already logged NFL experience.

4. Free agent tracker: Barr, Clowney, Hunt visiting potential playoff teams

Here's a look at some of the latest developments regarding unsigned veterans:

Jadeveon Clowney visits Ravens: The former Pro Bowl pass rusher spent the last two years in Cleveland
Kareem Hunt on Colts' radar: The former Browns running back visited New Orleans
Anthony Barr visits Saints: The longtime Vikings linebacker, like Hunt, met with the Saints but left without a deal
Patriots reunite with Trey Flowers: The defensive lineman previously won two Super Bowls in New England