The NFL script writers nailed this one. Have the last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft in Las Vegas go on to star in a Super Bowl in Sin City less than two years later.
You can't make these things up. Brock Purdy's career comes full circle in Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas after he was the 262nd overall pick in the same city in 2022.
Purdy's story from Mr. Irrelevant to an MVP finalist starting in the Super Bowl is one in a million, right? Well, in a town like Las Vegas, everything has odds.
So here's the odds on Purdy's impossible path to the Super Bowl. For the "I was told there'd be no math" crowd, buckle up!
What are the odds? Brock Purdy's path to the Super Bowl
Step 1: High school football --> college football: 1 in 14
To do it right, I went all the way back to high school, where he was a three-star recruit at Perry High School in Gilbert, Arizona. According to NCAA research, 7.3% of high school football players play in college (at any level).
That's roughly 1 in 14.
Step 2: High school football --> college football --> NFL: 1 in 1,000
From there, roughly 1.6% of draft-eligible college players make the NFL.
The odds of both happening (high school to college to the NFL) goes to roughly 1 in 1,000 (0.12%)
Step 3: High school football --> college football --> NFL --> Super Bowl: 1 in 5,000
Only 16% of NFL players in the Super Bowl era have played in the Super Bowl.
The odds go from 1 in 1,000 to roughly 1 in 5,000 (0.019%)
Step 4: High school football --> college football --> NFL --> Super Bowl QB drafted 250th or lower: 1 in 24 million
That's not all that crazy. But, there's only ONE Mr. Irrelevant, the 262nd overall pick. The odds of that Super Bowl participant being a QB drafted 250th or worse? Over 1 in 4,000.
And with that, the 1 in 5,000 odds balloon to 1 in about 24 MILLION (0.00000417%)
1 in 14 | HS football -> NCAA football |
1 in 1K | HS football -> NCAA football -> NFL |
1 in 5K | HS football -> NCAA football -> NFL -> Super Bowl |
1 in 24M | HS football -> NCAA football -> NFL -> Super Bowl -> Super Bowl QB drafted 250th or lower |
So you're saying there's a chance?!?! Yes, for all the high school football players out there. The chances of having a story like Brock Purdy's is 1 in 24 million, or some number like that with a ton of zeroes.
Put another way, you're much more likely to win most jackpots on a Las Vegas slot machine (just not Powerball). You're also about 1,000 times more likely to get struck by lightning. Let's not test that theory, though!
Odds of super rare events happening
1 in 10K | Find a four-leaf clover |
1 in 15K | Get struck by lightning in lifetime |
1 in 650K | Get dealt a royal flush |
1 in 662K | Win an Olympic medal |
1 in 24M | The Brock Purdy story |
1 in 292M | Win the jackpot in Powerball |
1 in 1.6B | Fill out a perfect March Madness bracket (per FiveThirtyEight) |
Getting here was the nearly impossible part. Win or lose, Purdy is making history.
At age 24, he's the third-youngest QB to start in a Super Bowl behind Dan Marino and Ben Roethlisberger.
He's the lowest-drafted QB to start a Super Bowl, although keep in mind two undrafted QBs have done it (Jake Delhomme and Kurt Warner).
With a win, he's challenging Warner and Tom Brady for the best underdog stories in NFL history. The type you make movies about, or in my case, do a bunch of math to show why we love sports. Because ANYTHING is possible.
