The 2018 Stanley Cup Final gets underway Monday evening with the expansion Vegas Golden Knights listed as -150 sportsbook favorites over the Washington Capitals. You have to risk $150 to win $100 on Vegas taking the series, but if you like the underdog Caps you'd win $130 on a $100 bet.

Before you make your pick to hoist Stanley Cup, you need to see what SportsLine expert David Kelly has to say. A Toronto-born hockey analyst with multiple advanced degrees, Kelly is on a mind-blowing run with his NHL picks.

Kelly, who has been crushing his NHL picks all year, is up $5,146 for $100 bettors. That's right -- anyone who has followed him is up over $5K.

We can tell you Kelly doesn't expect a lot of scoring and is backing the under when the puck drops on this must-see series at 8 p.m. ET Monday in Vegas. But what about the side, which he's made his name picking?

Kelly knows Vegas swept the Caps during the regular season, winning 2-0 and 4-3. The Knights hold the edge in team speed, a trait they put on full display in whipping Winnipeg in the conference finals.

After dropping Game 1, Vegas reeled off four straight wins while allowing six total goals.

But Kelly knows these Caps bear no resemblance to the outfits that routinely flamed out early in the playoffs. "They demonstrated a smothering defense and all-star goaltending while notching back-to-back shutouts of Tampa Bay in the conference finals," Kelly told SportsLine.

Alex Ovechkin led the NHL with 49 regular-season goals and has added 12 more in the playoffs; he's on a mission to capture his first Cup.

Will Ovechkin lead the Capitals to the upset? Kelly says there's one X-factor that will determine the series outcome -- it's something you're not even thinking about.

Who is Kelly picking to win the 2018 Stanley Cup? And in how many games? Visit SportsLine now to see David Kelly's Stanley Cup Final pick plus his exclusive analysis, all from the Toronto-born handicapper who's up well over $5,000 picking NHL this season!