Week 8 Rankings: Standard | PPR
Keeping up with 13 games in a week is a lot for your average Fantasy player to handle, so here is one key number to know for every game in the NFL in Week 8.
(Numbers from ProFootballFocus.com)
32.0
Blake Bortles' accuracy on deep throws
In some offenses, you don't need to be able to throw the ball down the field much. The Lions are just one high-profile team that has largely eschewed the deep ball and still found plenty of success in an offense built around efficiency. The Jaguars aren't one of those teams. Last season, Bortles attempted 15.9 percent of his passes at least 20 yards downfield and was accurate on 46.9 percent of them. That wasn't an elite mark, but it was good enough in an offense with Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns making huge plays. Bortles has badly regressed this season across the board, but especially when looking deep, as he has the third-worst accurate rating on deep passes. Given how much this offense relied on the deep ball last season, that's bad news. And helps explain why Robinson and Hurns have been such disappointments so far.
69.2
A.J. Green's catch rate on deep passes
Usually, when you're chucking the ball downfield, it's a low-probability play. You're trading the lower chance of success in the hopes of a big payoff, and that has mostly been the case this season across the league. Passes thrown at least 20 yards down the field have a completion percentage of just 37.5 percent in the NFL, but a yards per attempt of 13.2 overall. When Andy Dalton and A.J. Green hook up on long passes, things have gone quite a bit better. Green leads the league with nine catches on deep passes for 339 yards, both of which lead the NFL. Dalton has enjoyed a lot of success on deep passes to every receiver this season, but Green has been on another level. And this isn't anything new, really; Green caught 15 of 30 deep passes last season for 558 yards. Green doesn't get quite as much love as some of the league's other elite receivers, but he's right there with the best of them.
-37.9
Colts rush defense grade this season
This bears out in the standard stats too, as the Colts are surrendering the fourth-most Fantasy points to opposing running backs in the NFL this season. They have given up 4.8 yards per carry and six rushing touchdowns, and running backs also have managed four touchdowns in the passing game against them. Spencer Ware has established himself pretty well as an all-around back, capable of making plays through the air and on the ground, and he should be able to keep the good times rolling in Week 8.
6.98
Mike Evans' drop rate
Remember being concerned about Evans? He dropped too many passes last year and had trouble getting into the end zone! He did, indeed, drop too many passes last season. 14 of them, in fact, good for a drop rate of 16.1 percent, one of the worst marks in the NFL. Of course, we all remember that he was a touchdown machine as a rookie, and had just four drops (5.56 percent) that season too, so halfway through his third season, it's starting to look like last year was the fluke. He is always going to be a relatively high-variance player, because so many of his targets come on difficult plays down the field, but he has proven he is more than capable of turning those plays into huge Fantasy production. This is a top-five wide receiver moving forward.
2.17
Willie Snead's yards per route run in the slot We know all about the Seahawks' starting defensive backs. Richard Sherman has been one of the best in the league for years, while DeShawn Shead has rightly gained notoriety for his play this season. Both players have allowed a passer rating below 83.0 when targeted this season, with Shead holding opposing quarterbacks to just 7.7 yards per attempt when throwing his way. That is bad news for the Saints' receiving corps, especially Michael Thomas and Brandin Cooks, who see more time on the outside. The slot corner in Seattle, Jeremy Lane, hasn't been quite as good, allowing a 104.1 passer rating. If the Saints are going to find success through the air this week, they might need to lean heavily on Willie Snead out of the slot.
Lions at Texans
21.6
Brock Osweiler's completion percentage on deep passes
The Texans might want to rethink their offense strategy. DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller are an incredibly talented receiving duo with the ability to beat coverage down the field, so it must be tempting to just let Osweiler chuck the ball downfield and let them make plays. However, that just hasn't worked out for them. Osweiler is struggling with the pass rush, and hasn't been able to deliver the ball downfield accurately. And only two quarterbacks are throwing the ball downfield more often than Osweiler. That's a bad combination, especially when you see that Osweiler's quarterback rating drops to 56.8 when he holds the ball for 2.6 seconds or more. The Texans have a plan, but it just doesn't seem to fit with their quarterback's skill set, and it is holding them back.
98.8
Ryan Fitzpatrick's passer rating in play action
With Geno Smith's knee injury, we're stuck with Fitzpatrick in New York for the foreseeable future, so let's just hope he can start figuring out what has made him struggle so badly this season. Fitzpatrick has been the worst quarterback in the league when operating without play action, with four touchdowns and 10 interceptions on his 197 pass attempts. His completion percentage and yards per attempt both plummet when passing without play action, and his passer rating drops nearly 40 points. Of course, Fitzpatrick hasn't been amazing out of the play action, as his 98.8 passer rating ranks just 19th in the league this season. Still, 19th is workable; 19th would make Brandon Marshall look a lot better. Fitzpatrick has been the worst quarterback in the league this season, and anything to get him going is going to be good for the Jets' offense. Getting the running game going against a soft matchup is one way to do it.
89.0
Tom Brady's accuracy percentage
You probably didn't need a number to know that Brady is playing like a man possessed since coming back from injury, but it's still nice to get confirmation. He has been by far the most accurate passer in the league, with no other quarterback even topping 80.3 percent. I could go more into the numbers -- how Rob Gronkowski leads all tight ends in yards per route run by nearly a full yard, or how LeGarrette Blount ranks third in the NFL in missed tackles -- but it almost feels beside the point. The Patriots' offense is an efficient machine, and numbers almost can't capture that. Almost.
63.4
Carson Palmer's passer rating when pressured
Last year, Palmer was able to hold his own against the pass rush. He sported an 88.4 passer rating when pressured, and actually averaged more yards per attempt in such situations, 8.9 to 8.2. This makes a certain amount of sense, because the Cardinals' passing game tends to take a bit longer to develop than most teams. Palmer was chucking the ball downfield more often than any quarterback except one, and his average depth of target of 11.3 yards was one of the highest in the league. They were willing to take the risk of getting Palmer sacked in order to get the higher payoff of those downfield plays, and with a talented receiving corps like this, that tradeoff made sense. However, John Brown and Michael Floyd haven't been themselves this season, and Palmer's accuracy on deep passes has really regressed, making the offense much less effective. It might be time to think about a new game plan for the disappointing Cardinals passing attack, though the Panthers' subpar secondary might make it worth taking a few more chances just to see if they can find that magic from a year ago.
51.6
Percentage of dropbacks Philip Rivers was pressured on in Week 6
This Broncos' pass rush is totally ridiculous, obviously. They have sacked opposing quarterbacks on 7.9 percent of their total dropbacks, while pressuring them 41.3 percent of the time. They also have one of the best secondaries in football, and those two parts of the game work in concert to make the Broncos' defense essentially impossible for opposing quarterbacks to manage. All told, Rivers acquitted himself pretty well in their last matchup, getting sacked just twice and avoiding an interception against the tough defense. Still, he ended up with just 14.3 Fantasy points in the game, and was largely invisible after the first drive. That might have been a best-case scenario against this Broncos' defense, which is a good sign that you should stay away.
2.25
Ty Montgomery's yards per pass route run last two weeks
This would be one of the best marks for any running back this season, and it shouldn't come as much of a surprise that a wide receiver working out of the backfield is making his impact felt largely as a pass-catcher. Montgomery did enjoy some success running the ball last week, with nine carries for 60 yards, but the Packers are reportedly looking to get Knile Davis more involved in the offense this week. Expect Montgomery to keep serving mostly as a pass-catching option, and if Davis or Don Jackson gets more involved in the next few weeks, Week 7 might end up the peak of Montgomery's value.
28.6
Percent of plays when Carson Wentz sacked after being pressured
Wentz has been sacked eight times in three games since the bye after going down just four times in the first three games. However, he doesn't really have the Eagles' line to blame for this increase because his pressure percentage has actually held pretty steady. He has been pressured on 30.4 percent of his dropbacks over the last three games, compared to 24.3 percent in the first three. However, he is being sacked nearly twice as often when he is pressured lately, a sign of his apparent regression. He did a great job managing pressure when it came early on, moving in the pocket and avoiding the rush, but has been a bit less successful at that lately. This could be the natural ebb and flow of the season for the young quarterback, but at this point, it's hard to trust him.
Vikings at Bears
83.2
Brian Hoyer's passer rating when targeting Alshon Jeffery
Not only did Hoyer not target Jeffery much -- he had just three more targets than Cameron Meredith in the five games Hoyer started -- but he didn't have much success when throwing his way. He completed just 23 of 40 passes Jeffery's way, and just 24 of those 40 passes were graded as catchable by PFF. For all of his flaws, we know Jay Cutler is going to get the ball to Jeffery, and we know he's more likely to take chances down the field, both of which should help Jeffery get going. However, if you're waiting for Jeffery to get warm up, you might have to wait a few more weeks, because even the return of Jay Cutler probably won't help against the Vikings defense.
