HOUSTON -- This will all change.
You need to understand that before moving forward.
Some players we think are returning to school will leave. And vice versa. And then some recruits we believe are going to one college will go to another. So understand that, please.
Regardless, it's time to rank basketball teams for next season!
So I sat down with my colleagues Matt Norlander and Sam Vecenie here at the site of the Final Four, and we tore through every relevant roster in the country. Then we consulted with coaches, agents, recruiting analysts and all sorts of folks and tried our best to project how teams will likely look next season. What you see below is the result of that. And, it's worth noting, our collective stab at this last season was remarkably on point. Our top five was Virginia, North Carolina, Kentucky, Maryland and Kansas. And every school we had ranked in the top 15 made the 2016 NCAA Tournament. So that's pretty good, I think.
Needless to say, when the information related to roster makeups changes over the coming days and weeks and months, so will these rankings. But, for now, here's the 2016-17 CBS Sports Ridiculously Early Preseason Top 25 (and one) college basketball rankings ...
1. DUKE
- Notable players definitely gone: Marshall Plumlee, Brandon Ingram, Derryck Thornton
- Others expected to leave: N/A
- Notable players we expect to return: Grayson Allen, Luke Kennard, Matt Jones, Amile Jefferson, Chase Jeter
- Others we expect to join the roster: Harry Giles, Jayson Tatum, Frank Jackson, Javin DeLaurier, Jack White, Marques Bolden
Why the Blue Devils are ranked here: Duke will, with Grayson Allen coming back, return four of its top five scorers and add a heralded recruting class highlighted by the players DraftExpress.com projects to go first and second in the 2017 NBA Draft -- namely Jayson Tatum and Harry Giles. So, yes, the Blue Devils should be considered the favorites. And don't be surprised if Mike Krzyzewski, this time next year, has his sixth national title.
2. KENTUCKY
- Notable players definitely gone: Tyler Ulis, Jamal Murray, Skal Labissiere, Alex Poythress, Charles Matthews
- Others expected to leave: Marcus Lee
- Notable players we expect to return: Isaiah Briscoe, Derek Willis, Isaac Humphries, Dominique Hawkins
- Others we expect to join the roster: De’Aaron Fox, Malik Monk, Bam Adebayo, Wenyan Gabriel, Sacha Killeya-Jones
Why the Wildcats are ranked here: That Kentucky's recruiting class is ranked ahead of Duke's even though Duke's features two future top-five picks says all you need to know about the quality of UK's prospects. De'Aaron Fox is considered the nation's top incoming point guard. Malik Monk is considered the nation's top incoming combo guard. In total, UK's five-man class is comprised of five top-30 prospects. So it almost doesn't matter who stays or goes. Kentucky will still be among the most talented teams, same as always.
3. VILLANOVA
- Notable players definitely gone: Ryan Arcidiacono, Daniel Ochefu
- Others expected to leave: N/A
- Notable players we expect to return: Josh Hart, Kris Jenkins, Jalen Brunson, Phil Booth, Mikal Bridges, Darryl Reynolds
- Others we expect to join the roster: Omari Spellman, Dylan Painter, Eric Paschall
Why the Wildcats are ranked here: Villanova is losing two important pieces -- specifically Ryan Arcidiacono and Daniel Ochefu. That won't be simple to overcome. But three starters should be back from this team that just beat North Carolina to win the national championship, and Omari Spellman is a five-star post player who will have an immediate impact on Jay Wright's program. So let the back-to-back talk begin at Villanova.
4. KANSAS
- Notable players definitely gone: Perry Ellis, Jamari Traylor, Wayne Selden, Brannen Greene, Hunter Mickelson, Cheick Diallo
- Others expected to leave: N/A
- Notable players we expect to return: Frank Mason, Devonte’ Graham, Landen Lucas, Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, Carlton Bragg
- Others we expect to join the roster: Josh Jackson, Udoka Azubuike, Mitch Lightfoot
Why the Jayhawks are ranked here: The addition of five-star wing Josh Jackson gives KU another one-and-done prospect. Combine him with that better-than-most-think backcourt of Frank Mason and Devonte' Graham, and other veterans like Landen Lucas, Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk and Carlton Bragg, and Bill Self will likely win a 13th straight Big 12 title.
5. XAVIER
- Notable players definitely gone: James Farr, Remy Abell
- Others expected to leave: Jalen Reynolds
- Notable players we expect to return: Trevon Bluiett, Edmond Sumner, Sean O’Mara, Myles Davis, JP Macura, Larry Austin, Kaiser Gates
- Others we expect to join the roster: RaShid Gaston, Quintin Goodin, Tyrique Jones, Eddie Ekiyor
Why the Musketeers are here: Xavier should return the most important pieces from a 28-win team that finished only behind Villanova in the Big East. And watch out for RaShid Gaston. He's a 6-foot-9 forward who averaged 15.5 points and 9.6 rebounds two seasons ago at Norfolk State. He'll be eligible at Xavier next season. I bet Bill Murray will like him.
6. MICHIGAN STATE
- Notable players definitely gone: Denzel Valentine, Bryn Forbes, Deyonta Davis, Matt Costello, Colby Wollenman, Marvin Clark, Javon Bess
- Others expected to leave: N/A
- Notable players we expect to return: Eron Harris, Gavin Schilling, Matt McQuaid, Lourawls Nairn, Kenny Goins, Alvin Ellis, Kyle Ahrens
- Others we expect to join the roster: Miles Bridges, Josh Langford, Cassius Winston, Nick Ward
Why the Spartans are ranked here: The Spartans are losing their best player (Denzel Valentine) and shooter (Bryn Forbes). But they'll still have Tom Izzo, a top-three recruiting class and enough quality pieces to make a run at the Big Ten regular-season championship and eighth Final Four of their Hall of Fame coach's career.
7. NORTH CAROLINA
- Notable players definitely gone: Brice Johnson, Marcus Paige, Joel James
- Others expected to leave: N/A
- Notable players we expect to return: Justin Jackson, Isaiah Hicks, Kennedy Meeks, Joel Berry, Theo Pinson, Nate Britt, Luke Maye, Kenny Williams
- Others we expect to join the roster: Tony Bradley, Seventh Woods, Brandon Robinson
Why the Tar Heels are ranked here: The Tar Heels won't lose any underclassmen, which means six of UNC's top eight scorers will be back. So it won't be a suprise if Roy Williams makes his ninth Final Four next season and again takes a run at becoming only the sixth coach in history to win at least three national titles.
8. OREGON
- Notable players definitely gone: Elgin Cook, Dwayne Benjamin
- Others expected to leave: Dylan Ennis
- Notable players we expect to return: Dillon Brooks, Chris Boucher, Tyler Dorsey, Jordan Bell, Casey Benson, Kendall Small
- Others we expect to join the roster: Payton Pritchard, M.J. Cage, Keith Smith
Why the Ducks are ranked here: Dana Altman has built Oregon into a consistent winner, and that won't change next season as long as Dillon Brooks, Chris Boucher and Tyler Dorsey return. It's also reasonable to expect the Ducks to land a quality 5th-year transfer. So they should finish in the top three of the Pac-12 for the sixth consecutive season.
9. ARIZONA
- Notable players definitely gone: Ryan Anderson, Gabe York, Kaleb Tarczewski, Mark Tollefsen, Justin Simon, Elliott Pitts
- Others expected to leave: N/A
- Notable players we expect to return: Allonzo Trier, Kadeem Allen, Ray Smith, Dusan Ristic, Parker Jackson-Cartwright, Chance Comanche
- Others we expect to join the roster: Lauri Markkanen, Rawle Alkins, Kobi Simmons, Terrance Ferguson
Why the Wildcats are ranked here: Alonzo Trier's announcement that he's definitely returning for his sophomore season ensures the Wildcats will be a factor on the national level again. If Oregon doesn't win the Pac-12, Arizona likely will -- especially now that five-star wing Terrance Ferguson has committed to Sean Miller's program.
10. VIRGINIA
- Notable players definitely gone: Malcolm Brogdon, Anthony Gill, Mike Tobey, Evan Nolte
- Others expected to leave: N/A
- Notable players we expect to return: London Perrantes, Devon Hall, Isaiah Wilkins, Marial Shayok, Darius Thompson, Jack Salt, Jarred Reuter
- Others we expect to join the roster: Austin Nichols, Mamadi Diakite, Kyle Guy, Ty Jerome, Jay Huff, DeAndre Hunter
Why the Cavaliers are ranked here: The Cavaliers have finished in the top 10 at KenPom each of the past three seasons, and next season, on paper, should make four straight. The arrival of Memphis transfer Austin Nichols and redshirt freshman Mamadi Diakite will help ease the loss of Anthony Gill and Mike Tobey. And Tony Bennett also has a top-10 recruiting class set to enroll, meaning the Cavs will be talented and strong again.
11. UCLA
- Notable players definitely gone: Tony Parker
- Others expected to leave: N/A
- Notable players we expect to return: Bryce Alford, Isaac Hamilton, Aaron Holiday, Thomas Welsh, Prince Ali, Jonah Bolden
- Others we expect to join the roster: Lonzo Ball, T.J. Leaf, Kobe Paras, Ike Anigbogu
Why the Bruins are ranked here: The UCLA fans flying banners behind planes encouraging the school to fire Steve Alford probably don't realize he'll have a team next season capable of winning the Pac-12 and advancing to the Final Four. And wait till you see Lonzo Ball. He's a special talent that should make everybody in Westwood better.
12. INDIANA
- Notable players definitely gone: Yogi Ferrell, Max Biefeldt, Nick Zeisloft
- Others expected to leave: Troy Williams
- Notable players we expect to return: Thomas Bryant, OG Anunoby, James Blackmon, Robert Johnson, Collin Hartman, Juwan Morgan
- Others we expect to join the roster: Josh Newkirk, De’Ron Davis, Curtis Jones, Grant Gelon, Devonte Green
Why the Hoosiers are ranked here: Thomas Bryant's decision to return for his sophomore year provides Tom Crean with a nice centerpiece even if Troy Williams declares for, and remains in, the NBA Draft. Expect a breakout season from OG Anunoby. And look for the Hoosiers to make a run at another Sweet 16.
13. WISCONSIN
- Notable players definitely gone: N/A
- Others expected to leave: N/A
- Notable players we expect to return: Nigel Hayes, Ethan Happ, Vitto Brown, Bronson Koenig, Charlie Thomas, Zak Showalter, Jordan Hill, Khalil Iverson, Alex Illikainen
- Others we expect to join the roster: N/A
Why the Badgers are ranked here: As long as Nigel Hayes returns to school, the Badgers should have everybody back from a team that closed strong and made the Sweet 16. So Greg Gard is set up to have a nice first full season as Wisconsin's head coach.
14. SAINT MARY’S
- Notable players definitely gone: N/A
- Others expected to leave: N/A
- Notable players we expect to return: Emmett Naar, Dane Pineau, Joe Rayon, Jock Landale, Calvin Hermann, Evan Filzner, Kyle Clark, Stefan Gonzalez
- Others we expect to join the roster: Jordan Ford, Elijah Thomas
Why the Gaels are ranked here: It appears Randy Bennett will have everybody back from a team that won 29 games this season. For once, it's not crazy to pick somebody other than Gonzaga to win the West Coast Conference.
15. RHODE ISLAND
- Notable players definitely gone: Four McGlynn, Earl Watson
- Others expected to leave: N/A
- Notable players we expect to return: EC Matthews, Hassan Martin, Jared Terrell, Jarvis Garrett, Kuran Iverson, Christian Thompson, Nicola Akele
- Others we expect to join the roster: Stanford Robinson, Mike Layssard Jr, Jeff Dowtin, Michael Tertsea, Cyril Langevine
Why the Rams are ranked here: Why did Dan Hurley pass on the Rutgers job? There are a lot of reasons, really. But one of them is that he has a team at URI that's good enough to win the Atlantic 10 and advance in the NCAA Tournament.
16. GONZAGA
- Notable players definitely gone: Domantas Sabonis, Kyle Wiltjer, Eric McClellan, Kyle Dranginis
- Others expected to leave: N/A
- Notable players we expect to return: Przemek Karnowski, Josh Perkins, Ryan Edwards, Silas Melson, Bryan Alberts
- Others we expect to join the roster: Nigel Williams-Goss, Jonathan Williams, Zach Collins, Killian Tillie, Jacob Larson, Zach, Norvell, Rui Hachimura
Why the Zags are ranked here: If Domantas Sabonis returns, watch out. But he's probably gone. And that'll hurt. But transfers Nigel Williams-Goss and Jonathan Williams will ensure the Zags have enough veterans to make the NCAA Tournament once again.
17. LOUISVILLE
- Notable players definitely gone: Damion Lee, Trey Lewis
- Others expected to leave: N/A
- Notable players we expect to return: Chinanu Onuaku, Donovan Mitchell, Deng Adel, Mangok Mathiang, Raymond Spalding, Quenton Snider, Matz Stockton, Jaylen Johnson
- Others we expect to join the roster: VJ King, Tony Hicks
Why the Cardinals are ranked here: Rick Pitino shopped in the transfer market last offseason and found enough to help him create a top-25 team. Odds are, he'll do it again.
18. WEST VIRGINIA
- Notable players definitely gone: Devin Williams, Jaysean Paige, Jonathan Holton
- Others expected to leave: N/A
- Notable players we expect to return: Tarik Phillip, Jevon Carter, Daxter Miles, Esa Ahmad, Elijah Macon, Nathan Adrian, Teyvon Myers
- Others we expect to join the roster: Sagaba Donate, Maciej Bender, Chase Harler, Brandon Knapper
Why the Mountaineers are ranked here: We left West Virginia unranked last preseason and Bob Huggins made that look foolish. Consider this proof that we learned our lesson.
19. MARYLAND
- Notable players definitely gone: Robert Carter, Diamond Stone, Jake Layman, Rasheed Sulaimon
- Others expected to leave: N/A
- Notable players we expect to return: Melo Trimble, Jared Nickens, Jaylen Brantley, Michal Cekovsky, Damonte Dodd, Dion Wiley
- Others we expect to join the roster: Anthony Cowan, Kevin Huerter, Micah Thomas, L.G. Gill
Why the Terrapins are ranked here: Our understanding is that it's 50-50 as to whether Melo Trimble returns for his junior year. So, for now, we're projecting him back. And, if he's back, Maryland will be good again because Trimble is an undeniable difference-maker.
20. USC
- Notable players definitely gone: Katin Reinhardt, Julian Jacobs, Darion Clark, Malik Martin, Malik Marquetti
- Others expected to leave: N/A
- Notable players we expect to return: Jordan McLaughlin, Nikola Jovanovic, Bennie Boatright, Chemezie Metu, Elijah Stewart
- Others we expect to join the roster: Shaqquan Aaron, Jonah Mathews, De’Anthony Melton, Harrison Henderson
Why the Trojans are ranked here: Andy Enfield should have three of his top four scorers back from a team that made the NCAA Tournament. And, yes, this is the fourth Pac-12 school we have ranked in the top 20 of this Top 25 (and one).
21. MIAMI
- Notable players definitely gone: Angel Rodriguez, Sheldon McClellan, Tonye Jekiri, Ivan Cruz Uceda, James Palmer
- Others expected to leave: N/A
- Notable players we expect to return: Davon Reed, Ja’Quan Newton, Kamari Murphy, Anthony Lawrence, Ebuka Izundu
- Others we expect to join the roster: Dewan Huell, Bruce Brown, Rodney Miller, Dejan Vasiljevic
Why the Hurricanes are ranked here: Miami is losing a lot -- most notably Angel Rodriguez, Sheldon McClellan and Tonye Jekiri. But Jim Larranaga has enough to be good again, and his top-10 recruiting class will provide an influx of talent.
22. CONNECTICUT
- Notable players definitely gone: Daniel Hamilton, Sterling Gibbs, Shonn Miller, Omar Calhoun, Phillip Nolan, Sam Cassel
- Others expected to leave: N/A
- Notable players we expect to return: Rodney Purvis, Amida Brimah, Jalen Adams, Kenta Facey, Steven Enoch
- Others we expect to join the roster: Juwan Durham, Terry Larrier, Alterique Gilbert, Vance Jackson, Mamadou Diarra
Why the Huskies are ranked here: The loss of Daniel Hamilton hurts because it represents the loss of a high-level college player who doesn't project as a first-round pick. Put another way, he didn't have to go. But he's gone. And that's a blow. But UConn still has a solid core of veterans in Rodney Purvis and Amida Brimah, an impactful transfer in Terry Larrier, and a top-five recruiting class. So Kevin Ollie has a roster he can work with.
23. CREIGHTON
- Notable players definitely gone: Geoffrey Groselle, James Milliken
- Others expected to leave: N/A
- Notable players we expect to return: Maurice Watson, Cole Huff, Ronnie Harrell, Malik Albert, Justin Patton, Khyri Thomas, Zach Hanson, Tyler Clement, Isaiah Zierden, Toby Hegner, Martin Krampelj
- Others we expect to join the roster: Marcus Foster, Davion Mintz
Why the Bluejays are ranked here: Remember Marcus Foster? He averaged double-digits at Kansas State for two seasons before transferring. He'll team with Maurice Watson and help Creighton compete for a top-three spot in the Big East.
24. TEXAS
- Notable players definitely gone: Isaiah Taylor, Cameron Ridley, Javan Felix, Prince Ibeh, Connor Lammert, Demarcus Holland
- Others expected to leave: N/A
- Notable players we expect to return: Kerwin Roach, Tevin Mack, Eric Davis, Shaquille Cleare, Kendal Yancy
- Others we expect to join the roster: Jarrett Allen, James Banks, Jacob Young, Andrew Jones
Why the Longhorns are ranked here: Isaiah Taylor's decision to hire an agent and remain in the NBA Draft is a huge blow to the Longhorns. With him, Shaka Smart had a top-20 team. Without him, we might be being generous to keep Texas in the Top 25 (and one).
25. BUTLER
- Notable players definitely gone: Roosevelt Jones, Kellen Dunham, Jordan Gathers, Austin Etherington, Jackson Davis
- Others expected to leave: N/A
- Notable players we expect to return: Kelan Martin, Andrew Chrabascz, Tyler Wideman, Tyler Lewis, Nate Fowler
- Others we expect to join the roster: Kethan Savage, Avery Woodson, Joey Brunk, Howard Washington, Kamar Baldwin, Henry Baddle
Why the Bulldogs are ranked here: Butler is a harder job in the Big East than it was in the Horizon. But Chris Holtmann has stabilized things inside Hinkle Fieldhouse. And he should have the Bulldogs in the NCAA Tournament again next season.
26. WICHITA STATE
- Notable players definitely gone: Fred VanVleet, Ron Baker, Evan Wessel, Anton Grady, Tom Wamukota, Ty Taylor
- Others expected to leave: N/A
- Notable players we expect to return: Markis McDuffie, Shaquille Morris, Conner Frankamp, Landry Shamet, Zach Brown, Rashard Kelly, Rauno Nurger,
- Others we expect to join the roster: Darrlyn Willis, C.J. Keyser, Daishon Smith
