Leonard Hamilton and the Florida State Seminoles begin their 2021 NCAA Tournament journey on Saturday afternoon. Florida State enters as the No. 4 seed in the East Region, and the Seminoles will face the No. 13 seed UNCG Spartans in the opening round. UNC Greensboro is 21-8 and the Spartans won the Southern Conference crown. FSU is 16-6 overall and lost to Georgia Tech in the ACC Tournament.
Tip-off is at 12:45 p.m. ET at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. William Hill Sportsbook lists the Seminoles as 10.5-point favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 144.5 in the latest Florida State vs. UNC Greensboro odds. Before you make any UNC Greensboro vs. Florida State picks, check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of over $2,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. It has also returned almost $500 on all top-rated college basketball picks this season. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on FSU vs. UNC Greensboro in the NCAA Tournament 2021. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for UNC Greensboro vs. FSU:
- Florida State vs. UNC Greensboro spread: Florida State -10.5
- Florida State vs. UNC Greensboro over-under: 144.5 points
- Florida State vs. UNC Greensboro money line: FSU -700, UNCG +475
- FSU: The Seminoles are 3-7 against the spread in the last 10 games
- UNCG: The Spartans are 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 games
Why Florida State can cover
Florida State has top-notch strengths, and the Seminoles are well-coached under Hamilton. The Seminoles are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, using their length to secure 35.7 percent of their own missed shots. Florida State is not totally reliant on its size, however, as the Seminoles are a top-10 3-point shooting team, converting 39.0 percent, and a strongly above-average free throw shooting team, knocking down 73.8 percent of their attempts. Florida State led the ACC with a 56.1 percent effective field goal shooting mark in conference play.
On the defensive side, the Seminoles also led the conference in shooting efficiency allowed, including a 45.0 percent on 2-point shots. Florida State also creates turnovers at a strong rate of 19.6 percent of possessions. Finally, the Seminoles are the tallest team in the country, and that helps to create a 14.6 percent block rate that is near the top of the sport.
Why UNC Greensboro can cover
The Spartans are a very effective defensive team, and that should translate even against a difficult opponent. UNC Greensboro ranks as an above-average defense even when adjusting for competition, and the Spartans led the Southern Conference in adjusted defensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage allowed (48.6 percent), turnover creation rate (21.2 percent) and block rate (11.9 percent). FSU struggles to take care of the ball, committing a turnover on 20.2 percent of possessions, and UNC Greensboro will need to create that havoc.
On the offensive side, the Spartans led the SoCon in ball security, committing a turnover on just 14.2 percent of trips. They are also a very good offensive rebounding team, grabbing 32.4 percent of their own misses for the season. Despite their size and athleticism, Florida State struggles in defensive rebounding, landing below the national average on a per-possession basis, and the Seminoles are also outside the top 275 nationally in free throw prevention.
How to make UNC Greensboro vs. Florida State picks
The model is leaning over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 145 points. It also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins UNC Greensboro vs. Florida State? And which side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its college basketball picks.
