A trip to the Elite Eight is on the line when No. 5 seed Kentucky squares off against ninth-seeded Kansas State at 8:40 p.m. ET on Thursday. UK (26-10) opened as 5.5-point favorites in this 2018 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 showdown and are now laying five. The over-under, or total points Vegas believes will be scored, is 137, down 1.5 from the opener.
Before you make a pick on this matchup that determines who heads to the Elite Eight, you need to see what SportsLine's advanced simulations have to say.
This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, enters the 2018 Sweet 16 on a blistering 15-3 run on its NCAA Tournament picks.
That wasn't a fluke, either. Their model crushed college basketball last season, producing a 755-636-20 record on its A-rated picks and returning a massive profit of $6,529 for any $100 player who followed them. Anybody who has followed it is up huge.
The computer has now simulated Kansas State vs. Kentucky 10,000 times and locked in against-the-spread and over-under picks.
We can tell you the model is calling for the total to remain over 137, hitting in 56 percent of simulations. The model also has a strong pick against the spread, saying you can back one side almost 60 percent of the time. And you can only see that over at SportsLine.
The model has taken into account Kentucky's strong recent performances. John Calipari's squad is playing their best basketball of the season at the perfect time.
Kentucky enters Thursday's matchup riding a five-game win streak, which includes a dominant 20-point victory over Buffalo in their latest outing. They scored 95 in that game, with freshman Shai Gilgeous-Alexander posting a game-high 27. Kentucky shot a blistering 56.3 percent from the field and almost 50 percent from downtown.
The Wildcats beat Tennessee for the SEC Tournament crown and have not allowed more than 75 points in a game since Feb. 10. They are 18-17 against the spread this season and have covered five straight.
But just because Kentucky's offense has been explosive this season doesn't mean it can cover a five-point spread.
Kansas State (24-11) has won four of its last five games and boasts a suffocating defense that has only allowed 51.0 points per game in its first two NCAA Tournament games while limiting opponents to 32.2 percent shooting.
The Wildcats held 8-seed Creighton to 59 points in the first round and then gave up just 43 to UMBC, the fourth time this season an opponent didn't hit 50 against them.
K-State beat both Vanderbilt (84-79) and Georgia (56-51) out of the SEC this season.
So what side should you back? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of Kentucky-Kansas State you can bank on almost 60 percent of the time, all from the computer model that enters the Sweet 16 on a blistering 15-3 run on its 2018 NCAA Tournament picks.
