When No. 10 Miami plays host to No. 17 North Carolina on Saturday, a New Year's Six bowl berth could be on the line. The Hurricanes are indeed looking to improve to 9-1 and move one step closer to one of the best regular-season winning percentages of its ACC era and the Tar Heels have a shot to notch their first top-10 win since 2004 ... when it took down Miami in Chapel Hill on a walk-off field goal by freshman Connor Barth. But there's also the opportunity to make an appearance in one of 2020's most prestigious bowl games should both No. 2 Notre Dame and No. 3 Clemson make the College Football Playoff.
If the Tigers and Fighting Irish -- who are off this week with extra time to prepare for the ACC Championship Game on Dec. 19 -- end up in the playoff then the Orange Bowl will extend an invitation to the next ACC team in line. Assuming it will use the College Football Playoff Rankings to make its decision, that makes Saturday's game between Miami and North Carolina one that could likely decide the next-highest ranked team on Selection Sunday. North Carolina may already have two losses while Miami has one, but the proximity to each other in the current rankings and the committee's history of acknowledging head-to-head results (especially recent ones) leaves that door open for the Tar Heels.
Of course there is no guarantee that two ACC teams will make it into the College Football Playoff, but if so this game takes on another meaning as the potential tiebreaker between two New Year's Six hopefuls looking to close out the year strong in a top-tier bowl game.
Storylines
Miami: No one from Miami's roster will be all that dialed in to the 2004 upset by North Carolina, but the Hurricanes certainly remember when Sam Howell marched the Tar Heels down the field in the fourth quarter to knock off the Hurricanes 28-25 one year ago in Chapel Hill. Miami had stormed back from a two-touchdown deficit in the first half and taken the lead with less than five minutes to play only to give up a 9-play, 75-yard drive in the final minutes that included a fourth-and-17 conversion by Howell and a two-point conversion after the go-ahead score.
"UNC will have our full attention. Obviously we remember the game a year ago. Left a bad taste in our mouth. And our players will be highly motivated for North Carolina coming into our stadium, make no doubt about that," Diaz said after the win against Duke last week.
There are plenty of big picture goals here for Miami that include a potential New Years Six appearance and finishing with one of the best winning percentages in the country, but there's also the history and competition between programs that are usually ACC Coastal rivals jockeying for position in the ACC Championship Game race.
North Carolina: Mack Brown laid out plainly the steps to building up a program this week, and how it pertains to Saturday's game against Miami. First you win at home, then you win on the road. Then you will be doubted until there's a win against a top-25 team, and even after that, there will be doubt until there's a win against a top-10 team. That's where North Carolina has been for much of the 21st century, stuck between picking up top-25 wins (two this year, against Virginia Tech and NC State) and beating top-10 teams.
"We're getting better in every area. The question is, are we ready to beat a top-10 team or not? We thought we might be against Notre Dame, we weren't," Brown said Monday at his media availability. "So Miami's playing as good as Notre Dame now -- they've improved so much from last year, they've improved so much since their Clemson game, it doesn't even look like the same team."
So while there have been noticeable and important steps forward for North Carolina here in 2020, falling short against a top-10 opponent for the second time this season would be a disappointing finish considering how high the hopes got for a team that was ranked No. 5 in the AP Top 25 poll prior to its three-point road losses at Florida State and Virginia.
Viewing information
Date: Saturday, Dec. 12 | Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium -- Miami Gardens, Florida
TV: ABC | Live stream: fuboTV (Try for free)
North Carolina at Miami prediction, picks
My favorite pick here is to take the over, considering the combined firepower of D'Eriq King and Sam Howell. These are two of only three players in the ACC accounting for more than 300 yards of total offense per game with at least 20 passing touchdowns on the season. The other is Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence. So while I do think we're going to see shootout that could be anyone's game in the fourth quarter, I think Miami is the team that can close it out with a win. Pick: Miami -3
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