2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: Top 150 rankings for dynasty leagues, complete with value ratings

How do you measure present value against future value?

Dynasty leagues are all about prospects, right?

Well ... not exactly. True, a steady trickle of prospects is what sustains a dynasty, first supplementing the core before eventually overtaking it, but the winning never happens if the core is never established. And so often in the breathless pursuit of the Next Big Thing, the last big thing already doing the thing gets passed over.

Still, it can be tricky to balance present and future in a dynasty league, whether in speculating how many prime years an established player has left, estimating how many years before a top prospect comes through (presuming he ever does), or wondering when exactly to seize upon a 30-something who could put you over the top. Fair to say it's an inexact science.

To that end, I've devised a rank list using an inexact process that considers these three factors for prospects and established players alike:

1. Present value: What a player is expected to be in 2021
   
2. Future value: What his peak looks like and how much peak he has left
   
3. Confidence rating: How confident I am in him meeting his present and future value
   

Each factor is measured on a 1-to-5 score, with five being the best, and a player's ranking is primarily determined by adding the scores. Ties typically go to the younger player, but personal preference plays a role as well. The distinctions become less evident further down the list, so at some point subjectivity has to reign.

Top 150 for dynasty leagues

Rank	Player	Age (on 7/1)	Present	Future	Confidence
1	Ronald Acuna ATL CF	23	5	5	5
2	Juan Soto WAS LF	22	5	5	5
3	Fernando Tatis SD SS	22	5	5	5
4	Shane Bieber CLE SP	26	5	5	5
5	Mike Trout LAA CF	29	5	4	5
6	Mookie Betts LAD RF	28	5	4	5
7	Trea Turner WAS SS	28	5	4	5
8	Trevor Story COL SS	28	5	4	5
9	Cody Bellinger LAD CF	25	5	5	4
10	Christian Yelich MIL LF	29	5	4	4
11	Jose Ramirez CLE 3B	28	5	4	4
12	Francisco Lindor NYM SS	27	5	4	4
13	Alex Bregman HOU 3B	27	5	5	3
14	Gerrit Cole NYY SP	30	5	3	5
15	Jacob deGrom NYM SP	33	5	3	5
16	Aaron Nola PHI SP	28	5	4	4
17	Lucas Giolito CHW SP	26	5	5	3
18	Corey Seager LAD SS	27	5	5	3
19	Freddie Freeman ATL 1B	31	5	3	5
20	Bryce Harper PHI RF	28	4	4	5
21	Manny Machado SD 3B	28	4	4	5
22	Ozzie Albies ATL 2B	24	4	4	5
23	Jack Flaherty STL SP	25	4	5	4
24	Walker Buehler LAD SP	26	4	5	4
25	Bo Bichette TOR SS	23	4	5	3
26	Wander Franco TB SS	20	2	5	5
27	Rafael Devers BOS 3B	24	4	5	3
28	Kyle Tucker HOU LF	24	4	5	3
29	Eloy Jimenez CHW LF	24	4	5	3
30	Luis Castillo CIN SP	28	4	4	4
31	Xander Bogaerts BOS SS	28	4	4	4
32	Zac Gallen ARI SP	25	4	4	4
33	Anthony Rendon LAA 3B	31	4	3	5
34	Trevor Bauer LAD SP	30	5	3	3
35	Luis Robert CHW CF	23	3	5	3
36	Vladimir Guerrero TOR 1B	22	3	5	3
37	Adalberto Mondesi KC SS	25	4	5	2
38	Pete Alonso NYM 1B	26	4	4	3
39	Yordan Alvarez HOU DH	24	4	5	2
40	Keston Hiura MIL 2B	24	3	5	3
41	Gleyber Torres NYY SS	24	3	4	4
42	Brandon Woodruff MIL SP	28	4	4	3
43	DJ LeMahieu NYY 2B	32	5	2	4
44	Tim Anderson CHW SS	28	4	4	3
45	MacKenzie Gore SD SP	22	2	5	4
46	Andrew Vaughn CHW 1B	23	3	5	3
47	Tyler Glasnow TB SP	27	4	5	2
48	Corbin Burnes MIL SP	26	4	5	2
49	Nolan Arenado STL 3B	30	5	3	2
50	Yu Darvish SD SP	34	5	1	4
51	Jarred Kelenic SEA CF	21	2	5	3
52	Spencer Torkelson DET 3B	21	1	5	4
53	Julio Rodriguez SEA RF	20	1	5	4
54	Blake Snell SD SP	28	4	4	2
55	Zach Plesac CLE SP	26	4	4	2
56	Trent Grisham SD CF	24	3	4	3
57	Chris Paddack SD SP	25	3	5	2
58	Marcell Ozuna ATL LF	30	5	3	2
59	Luke Voit NYY 1B	30	4	3	3
60	Aaron Judge NYY RF	29	5	3	2
61	J.T. Realmuto PHI C	30	4	3	3
62	George Springer TOR CF	31	4	2	4
63	Whit Merrifield KC 2B	32	4	2	4
64	Max Fried ATL SP	27	3	4	3
65	Ian Anderson ATL SP	23	3	4	3
66	Sixto Sanchez MIA RP	22	3	4	3
67	Jesus Luzardo OAK RP	23	3	4	3
68	Adley Rutschman BAL C	23	2	5	3
69	Carlos Correa HOU SS	26	3	5	2
70	Matt Olson OAK 1B	27	3	4	3
71	Jose Berrios MIN SP	27	3	4	3
72	Javier Baez CHC SS	28	3	4	3
73	Michael Conforto NYM RF	28	3	3	4
74	Max Scherzer WAS SP	36	5	1	3
75	Clayton Kershaw LAD SP	33	5	1	3
76	Kenta Maeda MIN SP	33	5	2	2
77	Luis Severino NYY SP	27	2	5	2
78	Ketel Marte ARI 2B	27	3	4	2
79	Cavan Biggio TOR 2B	26	3	3	3
80	Randy Arozarena TB CF	26	3	4	2
81	Austin Meadows TB RF	26	3	4	2
82	Brandon Lowe TB 2B	26	3	4	2
83	Dominic Smith NYM LF	26	3	4	2
84	Jo Adell LAA CF	22	2	5	2
85	Carlos Carrasco NYM SP	34	4	1	4
86	Jose Abreu CHW 1B	34	4	1	4
87	Nick Castellanos CIN RF	29	4	3	2
88	Josh Hader MIL RP	27	4	3	2
89	Dansby Swanson ATL SS	27	3	3	3
90	C.J. Abrams SD SS	20	1	5	3
91	Austin Martin TOR SS	22	1	5	3
92	Marco Luciano SF SS	19	1	5	3
93	Bobby Witt KC SS	21	1	5	3
94	Eugenio Suarez CIN 3B	29	4	3	2
95	Dinelson Lamet SD SP	28	4	4	1
96	Dylan Bundy LAA SP	28	4	3	2
97	Stephen Strasburg WAS SP	32	4	2	3
98	Starling Marte MIA CF	32	3	2	4
99	J.D. Martinez BOS DH	33	4	2	3
100	Hyun-Jin Ryu TOR SP	34	4	1	4
101	Jose Altuve HOU 2B	31	4	3	2
102	Kyle Hendricks CHC SP	31	4	2	3
103	Zack Wheeler PHI SP	31	3	2	4
104	Sonny Gray CIN SP	31	4	2	3
105	Yoan Moncada CHW 3B	26	3	4	2
106	Lourdes Gurriel TOR LF	27	3	3	3
107	Lance McCullers HOU SP	27	3	4	2
108	Ke'Bryan Hayes PIT LF	24	3	4	2
109	Alec Bohm PHI 3B	24	3	4	2
110	Dylan Carlson STL 1B	22	3	5	1
111	Alex Kirilloff MIN RF	23	2	5	2
112	Mike Soroka ATL SP	23	3	4	2
113	Julio Urias LAD SP	24	3	4	2
114	Michael Kopech CHW SP	25	2	5	2
115	Nate Pearson TOR SP	24	2	5	2
116	Anthony Rizzo CHC 1B	31	4	3	2
117	Matt Chapman OAK 3B	28	3	4	2
118	Joey Gallo TEX RF	27	3	4	2
119	Jeff McNeil NYM 2B	29	3	3	3
120	Ryan Mountcastle BAL 1B	24	3	4	2
121	Triston McKenzie CLE RP	23	3	4	2
122	Nick Madrigal CHW 2B	24	3	4	2
123	Sandy Alcantara MIA SP	25	3	3	3
124	Will Smith LAD C	26	3	4	2
125	Franmil Reyes CLE DH	25	3	4	2
126	German Marquez COL SP	26	3	4	2
127	Dustin May LAD SP	23	3	4	2
128	Tony Gonsolin LAD SP	27	3	4	2
129	Lance Lynn CHW SP	34	4	1	3
130	Teoscar Hernandez TOR CF	28	3	4	1
131	Mike Yastrzemski SF CF	30	3	3	2
132	Zack Greinke HOU SP	37	4	1	3
133	Chris Sale BOS SP	32	2	5	1
134	Noah Syndergaard NYM SP	28	2	4	2
135	Charlie Blackmon COL RF	34	4	1	3
136	Giancarlo Stanton NYY DH	31	4	2	2
137	Liam Hendriks CHW RP	32	4	2	2
138	James Karinchak CLE RP	25	4	3	1
139	Edwin Diaz NYM RP	27	4	3	1
140	Gavin Lux LAD 2B	23	2	5	1
141	Tarik Skubal DET SP	24	3	4	1
142	Joey Bart SF C	24	2	4	2
143	Casey Mize DET SP	24	2	5	1
144	Spencer Howard PHI RP	24	2	5	1
145	Max Muncy LAD 1B	30	3	2	3
146	Willson Contreras CHC C	29	3	2	3
147	Salvador Perez KC C	31	3	1	4
148	Matt Manning DET SP	23	1	5	2
149	Logan Gilbert SEA RP	24	1	5	2
150	Jasson Dominguez NYY CF	18	1	5	2