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Dynasty leagues are all about prospects, right?

Well ... not exactly. True, a steady trickle of prospects is what sustains a dynasty, first supplementing the core before eventually overtaking it, but the winning never happens if the core is never established. And so often in the breathless pursuit of the Next Big Thing, the last big thing already doing the thing gets passed over.

Still, it can be tricky to balance present and future in a dynasty league, whether in speculating how many prime years an established player has left, estimating how many years before a top prospect comes through (presuming he ever does), or wondering when exactly to seize upon a 30-something who could put you over the top. Fair to say it's an inexact science.

To that end, I've devised a rank list using an inexact process that considers these three factors for prospects and established players alike:

  1. Present value: What a player is expected to be in 2021
  2. Future value: What his peak looks like and how much peak he has left
  3. Confidence rating: How confident I am in him meeting his present and future value

Each factor is measured on a 1-to-5 score, with five being the best, and a player's ranking is primarily determined by adding the scores. Ties typically go to the younger player, but personal preference plays a role as well. The distinctions become less evident further down the list, so at some point subjectivity has to reign.

Top 150 for dynasty leagues
RankPlayerAge (on 7/1)PresentFutureConfidence
1 235 5 5
2 22 5 5 5
3
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Fernando Tatis SD SS
22 5 5 5
4 26 5 5 5
5
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Mike Trout LAA CF
29 5 4 5
6 28 5 4 5
7 28 5 4 5
8
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Trevor Story COL SS
28 5 4 5
9 25 5 5 4
10 29 5 4 4
11 28 5 4 4
12 27 5 4 4
13 27 5 5 3
14 30 5 35
15 33 535
16 28 5 44
17 26 5 53
18 27 5 5 3
19 31535
20
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Bryce Harper PHI RF
28 4 45
21 2844 5
22
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Ozzie Albies ATL 2B
2444 5
23
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Jack Flaherty STL SP
2545 4
24
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Walker Buehler LAD SP
264 5 4
25 23 4 53
26
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Wander Franco TB SS
20255
27 24 4 5 3
28 24453
29 24 4 5 3
30 28 4 44
31 28 4 44
32 25 4 4 4
33
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Anthony Rendon LAA 3B
31 4 35
34 3053 3
35 233 5 3
36 223 5 3
37
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Adalberto Mondesi KC SS
2545 2
38 26 4 4 3
39 24 4 5 2
40 243 5 3
41 24 3 44
42 28 4 43
43 32524
44
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Tim Anderson CHW SS
2844 3
45
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MacKenzie Gore SD SP
2225 4
46 233 5 3
47
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Tyler Glasnow TB SP
27 4 52
48 26 4 52
49 3053 2
50 34514
51 2125 3
52 2115 4
53
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Julio Rodriguez SEA RF
2015 4
54 28 4 42
55 26 4 4 2
56 243 4 3
57
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Chris Paddack SD SP
25352
58 30532
59 30 4 3 3
60 29532
61 30 4 3 3
62
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George Springer TOR CF
31424
63 32 4 2 4
64 273 4 3
65 233 4 3
66 22343
67 23 3 4 3
68 232 5 3
69 263 5 2
70 27 3 4 3
71 27 3 4 3
72 28 3 4 3
73 2833 4
74 36 5 1 3
75
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Clayton Kershaw LAD SP
33513
76
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Kenta Maeda MIN SP
3352 2
77
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Luis Severino NYY SP
27 25 2
78 27342
79 263 3 3
80 263 4 2
81
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Austin Meadows TB RF
26 3 4 2
82 263 4 2
83 26 3 4 2
84 22252
85 34 4 14
86 3441 4
87 2943 2
88 27 4 3 2
89 27 3 33
90 20153
91 22153
92 1915 3
93 2115 3
94 2943 2
95 28 4 4 1
96 28 4 3 2
97
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Stephen Strasburg WAS SP
32423
98 32324
99 33423
100
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Hyun-Jin Ryu TOR SP
34414
101 3143 2
102
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Kyle Hendricks CHC SP
31 4 23
103 31 324
104 31 4 2 3
105 26 3 4 2
106 2733 3
107
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Lance McCullers HOU SP
27342
108 24 3 4 2
109 24 3 42
110 223 5 1
111
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Alex Kirilloff MIN RF
232 5 2
112
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Mike Soroka ATL SP
23 3 42
113 24 3 4 2
114 252 5 2
115
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Nate Pearson TOR SP
2425 2
116 3143 2
117 28342
118 27342
119 2933 3
120 243 4 2
121 23342
122 24 3 42
123 253 3 3
124 26 3 4 2
125 25 3 4 2
126 26 3 42
127
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Dustin May LAD SP
23342
128 27 3 4 2
129 3441 3
130 28 3 41
131 3033 2
132 37 4 13
133
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Chris Sale BOS SP
32251
134 28 2 4 2
135 34413
136
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Giancarlo Stanton NYY DH
31422
137 3242 2
138 25 431
139 27431
140 23251
141
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Tarik Skubal DET SP
24 3 41
142 24242
143
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Casey Mize DET SP
24251
144
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Spencer Howard PHI RP
24251
145 30323
146 2932 3
147 31314
148 231 5 2
149 24 15 2
150 1815 2