When you think of the rising stars in the major leagues, many of them are middle infielders. Jimmy Rollins is the reigning NL MVP, Troy Tulowitzki, Dustin Pedroia, Asdrubal Cabrera and Stephen Drew all enjoyed the spotlight last postseason, and after just two years, Hanley Ramirez is suddenly the face of the Florida Marlins. Yet for all their notoriety, middle infielders (along with catchers) are usually the least productive position players in their lineups. As many as 14 starting first basemen and six third basemen are projected for at least 7.0 runs created per 27 outs (RC/27) in 2008. Only three players at second base and shortstop combined are projected to produce at that level.
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Not only are there fewer top producers in the middle infield, but the dropoff in production from the elite players to the second tier is steeper. Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols are 1-2 in both the Roto and H2H mock drafts. How much production would we lose if we took them out of the draft pool along with the other members of the top three in RC/27 at the infield corners? At first base, you would be "stuck" with Mark Teixeira, who is projected to create 1.4 fewer runs in RC/27 than leader Ryan Howard. At third base, you are left with Chipper Jones -- also a 1.4 RC/27 downgrade from A-Rod. In contrast, the trade-off from best to fourth-best is 2.6 RC/27 at second base and 2.2 RC/27 at shortstop. So while middle infielders are less productive on the whole, the production of the best ones is relatively hard to replace.
The upshot is that you are likely better off passing up on A-Rod, Pujols or Howard and settling for the second tier at the corners, so that you can take Chase Utley or Hanley Ramirez. The production of these two middle infielders is the scarcest commodity in the entire major league draft pool.
In fact, Utley defines the term "elite" going into this season. He has produced the highest RC/27 scores among all second basemen for the last two years by a wide margin, and only Brian Roberts was more productive in 2005. If you miss Utley with your first pick, it still makes sense to target Roberts, Rickie Weeks or Kelly Johnson. These three are roughly comparable, but then there is a substantial dropoff between them and the rest of the pack. If you miss the top four, it’s best to move on and fill a vacancy at another position.
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| Player | 2008 Projection | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
| Chase Utley | 8.9 | 9.4 | 7.7 | 7.6 |
| Rickie Weeks | 6.9 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 4.5 |
| Brian Roberts | 6.8 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 7.7 |
| Kelly Johnson | 6.7 | 6.3 | 4.3 | N/A |
| Dustin Pedroia | 6.2 | 6.6 | 2.5 | N/A |
| Placido Polanco | 6.2 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 6.4 |
| Ian Kinsler | 6.1 | 5.6 | 5.5 | N/A |
| Jeff Kent | 6.1 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 6.7 |
| Robinson Cano | 6.1 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 4.7 |
| Brandon Phillips | 5.7 | 5.2 | 4.7 | N/A |
| Orlando Hudson | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 4.6 |
| Dan Uggla | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.8 | N/A |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | 5.5 | 4.8 | N/A | N/A |
| Kazuo Matsui | 5.5 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 3.8 |
| Mark DeRosa | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 4.7 |
| Mark Ellis | 5.5 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 6.7 |
| Tadahito Iguchi | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.0 |
| Ian Stewart | 5.5 | 3.4 | N/A | N/A |
| Howie Kendrick | 5.3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | N/A |
| Ray Durham | 5.3 | 3.2 | 6.6 | 5.2 |
| Freddy Sanchez | 5.2 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 4.9 |
| Akinori Iwamura | 5.2 | 5.5 | N/A | N/A |
| Luis Castillo | 4.9 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 5.2 |
| Aaron Hill | 4.8 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 4.8 |
| Ronnie Belliard | 4.8 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 4.8 |
| Mark Grudzielanek | 4.7 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 4.6 |
| Danny Richar | 4.5 | 3.5 | N/A | N/A |
| Jose Lopez | 4.5 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.4 |
| Brendan Harris | 4.4 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 4.9 |
| Kevin Frandsen | 4.3 | 3.5 | 2.7 | N/A |
| Adam Kennedy | 3.9 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 5.1 |
| Alexi Casilla | 3.9 | 2.3 | 6.5 | N/A |
| Aaron Miles | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.7 |
Derek Jeter and Jose Reyes get the Big Apple media attention, but it's Hanley Ramirez and Jimmy Rollins who stand apart from the crowd at shortstop. Both players distanced themselves from the field in 2007, and amazingly, both are poised to widen the gap in 2008. At 24, Ramirez is still growing into his prime. Rollins is now in the peak years of his career, but his power numbers continue to grow with each season. Jeter, Reyes and Troy Tulowitzki make up the second tier, and then a very large pack lags far behind them. As with second base, if you miss out on the very top shortstops, your best strategy is to draft for other positions first. Jhonny Peralta and J.J. Hardy are trendy picks, but at least for '08, you are not much worse off to settle for someone like Jason Bartlett or Alex Gonzalez instead.
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| Player | 2008 Projection | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
| Hanley Ramirez | 8.5 | 8.3 | 6.3 | N/A |
| Jimmy Rollins | 7.7 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 5.6 |
| Derek Jeter | 6.5 | 6.3 | 8.2 | 6.5 |
| Jose Reyes | 6.3 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 4.3 |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 6.3 | 6.0 | 3.5 | N/A |
| Jhonny Peralta | 5.6 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 6.7 |
| J.J. Hardy | 5.5 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 4.2 |
| Michael Young | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 7.3 |
| Miguel Tejada | 5.4 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 6.0 |
| Yunel Escobar | 5.4 | 6.6 | N/A | N/A |
| Edgar Renteria | 5.3 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 4.5 |
| Stephen Drew | 5.2 | 4.3 | 7.2 | N/A |
| Alex Gonzalez | 5.1 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 3.9 |
| Jack Wilson | 5.0 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 3.7 |
| Jason Bartlett | 4.9 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.7 |
| Julio Lugo | 4.9 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 5.8 |
| David Eckstein | 4.8 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 5.2 |
| Orlando Cabrera | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 4.1 |
| Yuniesky Betancourt | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 3.7 |
| Khalil Greene | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.3 |
| Rafael Furcal | 4.6 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 5.6 |
| Ryan Theriot | 4.3 | 4.1 | 7.9 | 1.7 |
| Bobby Crosby | 4.2 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 5.4 |
| Felipe Lopez | 4.2 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 6.2 |
| Cristian Guzman | 4.0 | 7.3 | N/A | 2.5 |
| Erick Aybar | 3.8 | 2.2 | 2.6 | N/A |
| Adam Everett | 3.3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.7 |
| Omar Vizquel | 3.3 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 4.2 |
| Cesar Izturis | 3.1 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 3.1 |
| John McDonald | 3.0 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 3.6 |
| Luis A. Hernandez | 3.0 | 3.5 | N/A | N/A |
| Tony F. Pena | 3.0 | 3.1 | 2.8 | N/A |
Next week: RC/27 projections for outfielders.
Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.
