Pitching Forecaster: Nationals avoid disaster

We hate to say it, but in the case of newly inked Stephen Strasburg: Told you so. The protracted Scott Boras negotiations, just over a minute before the Aug. 17 midnight deadline, ruined his potential to impact any Fantasy leagues in 2009.

So much for all those empty complaints about adding Strasburg to our player database early.

Sure, we might have had egg on our face if Strasburg had to go back into the First Year Player Draft again. But we don't. It played out as expected.

We hate to drop the "told you so" only because we wish it weren't true ourselves: Strasburg is "very unlikely" to pitch in the majors before the end of the season, the Nationals acting GM Mike Rizzo confirmed Tuesday.

We really would like to get a look at him against big league pitching. Heck, when we lobbied to have him added to the CBSSports.com database May 15 -- weeks before he was drafted and over three months before he ever signed -- we were already anticipating his debut. We started the anticipation when he was selected to pitch (over then-elite A's prospects Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill) in the most crucial game of the 2008 Olympic Games for Team USA.

We might not get a public look at the 100-mph Golden Spikes college player of the year until he reports to the Viera, Fla., next spring. Even then, the Nationals are not holding any expectations he will be there with a major league rotation spot to lose:

"If he earns it, and he's ready for it, then we'll see where his talent takes him," Rizzo said Tuesday.

We see Strasburg as a potential 10-win, 150-strikeout candidate in 2010, or roughly around the 50th-best starting pitcher to target on Draft Day in a standard Fantasy Baseball league. He is capable of so much more, sure, but you will have nothing to go on before Draft Day next spring, unfortunately.

We will say this, though: The Nationals won't be that bad of a team to pitch for. They might even make Strasburg a candidate for 15 victories as a 21-year-old with no pro experience going into the season -- assuming the Nationals don't give him a start before the end of minor league season in a couple of weeks.

The Earl Weaver school of pitching wins if you can get a bloop (Nyjer Morgan) and a blast (Adam Dunn) and suggests Strasburg can be a winner even on that cellar-dweller next year.

Now, you might be saying we have buried a portion of the lead here: "But what about all those keeper leagues where Strasburg was picked up merely by an opportunistic Fantasy player who happened to be online at the right time?"

Our response is the same: We told you the CBSSports.com database shouldn't make the rules and set the parameters in your keeper leagues.

There are dozens of long-term prospects not yet in our system that could wind up getting drafted in Fantasy leagues before Strasburg in the coming decade. Seriously, dozens. Perhaps even a hundred.

Remember you heard that here first, too.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Potential two-start SPs for Week 21
Pitcher	Own %	Start %
Justin Verlander	98	91
Roy Halladay	98	91
Johan Santana	98	89
Dan Haren	98	86
Zack Greinke	98	86
Cliff Lee	97	90
Adam Wainwright	97	88
Yovani Gallardo	97	86
Jon Lester	97	85
Matt Cain	97	84
Jered Weaver	97	77
Clayton Kershaw	96	73
Jair Jurrjens	95	71
Joba Chamberlain	94	46
Scott Baker	87	56
Jason Marquis	86	68
Kevin Millwood	86	48
Joe Blanton	84	55
Jeff Niemann	71	41
Mat Latos	69	32
Clay Buchholz	68	30
Bronson Arroyo	65	41
Gil Meche	60	26
Barry Zito	59	34
Brian Matusz	40	11
Chris Tillman	35	14
Justin Masterson	35	13
Ross Ohlendorf	31	22
Ryan Rowland-Smith	24	13
Jason Hammel	21	10
Ian Snell	18	6
Jose A. Contreras	16	5
Bobby Parnell	11	6
Sean West	9	4
Vin Mazzaro	9	4
Jeremy Sowers	5	2
Freddy An. Garcia	3	2
Collin Balester	2	1
Garrett Mock	2	1

Week 21 two-starter(s): Haren. He is a must-start in all leagues.
Starters on the DL: Brandon Webb (shoulder, out for the season).
Starters to watch in the minors: Jarrod Parker. Parker has been shut down. If the D-Backs need a starter, it could be Daniel Cabrera or Juan Gutierrez out of long relief.

Atlanta Braves

Week 21 two-starter(s): Jurrjens. He is likely an advisable option in all leagues still.
Starters on the DL: Tim Hudson (elbow) and Jorge Campillo (shoulder, out for the season). Hudson had a non-throwing related setback that makes him a September returnee. He is up to four innings in Triple-A and might need three more starts before he is ready.
Starters to watch in the minors: Jo-Jo Reyes. The depth will come from a returning Hudson or reliever Kris Medlen first. We don't see the Braves needing rotation help, though.

Baltimore Orioles

Week 21 two-starter(s): Tillman and Matusz. They are sleepers for deeper leagues with solid outings Wednesday and Thursday at Tampa Bay.
Starters on the DL: Brad Bergesen (leg), Koji Uehara (shoulder), Rich J. Hill (shoulder, out for the season) and Alfredo Simon (elbow, out for the season). Bergesen is targeting a return around Sept. 1, while Uehara might merely return in relief if he is ready before the end of the year..
Starters to watch in the minors: Jake Arrieta, Troy Patton and Brandon Erbe. Arrieta likely gets a call-up in September, but Patton as already been told he will be shut down once the Triple-A season is over. Erbe was injured earlier this year, too, making it less likely we see him this season.

Boston Red Sox

Week 21 two-starter(s):
Starters on the DL: Tim Wakefield (back) and Daisuke Matsuzaka (shoulder). Wakefield's return does not seem imminent, but track his progress through the weekend before considering him in Fantasy Week 21 (Aug. 24-30). Dice-K won't be back before September.
Starters to watch in the minors: Michael Bowden. He has righted himself after a slump and could be a spot start candidate as soon as this weekend if they don't want to use Tazawa against the Yankees. You might want to take an early flier on him now, just in case.

Chicago Cubs

Week 21 two-starter(s): Likely Carlos Zambrano. He will make a rehab start Wednesday and is targeting an Aug. 25 return for a two-start week. Consider him advisable in most formats if he looks good in his rehab outing.
Starters on the DL: Zambrano (back). He will be a bit of a risk, but his return certainly pushed Gorzelanny to the bullpen.
Starters to watch in the minors: Jeff Samardzija. Sean Marshall remains stuck in the Pitch-22, while Samardzija can at least stretch out down in the minors. He would be high risk if he gets starts in September, though.

Chicago White Sox

Week 21 two-starter(s): Likely just Contreras. He is a questionable to risky option best left for AL-only leagues. The White Sox play seven games, but we will likely see the return of ...
Starters on the DL: Jake Peavy (ankle) and Bartolo Colon (elbow, might be out for the season). Peavy will need perhaps two rehab starts, which could position him for a return late in Fantasy Week 21 (Aug. 24-30). Consider him a risky play still.
Starters to watch in the minors: Daniel Hudson. Hudson's numbers weren't as good in Triple-A and they will get by with Garcia until Peavy can return.

Cincinnati Reds

Aaron Harang
Johnny Cueto (might be skipped, fatigue)
Bronson Arroyo
Justin Lehr
Homer Bailey

Week 21 two-starter(s): Arroyo. He is a nice option for all deeper leagues with a quality start Wednesday vs. the Giants.
Starters on the DL: Micah Owings (shoulder) and Edinson Volquez (elbow, out for the season). Owings is targeting a return Friday, so consider him in deeper leagues, especially with a solid return outing.
Starters to watch in the minors: Matt Maloney. His numbers in Triple-A (8-8, 3.02) should earn him another look in September. He is high risk even in NL-only formats, though.

Cleveland Indians

Week 21 two-starter(s): Sowers and Masterson. They are questionable options at this point, but we could upgrade Masterson to advisable with a quality start Thursday vs. the Angels.
Starters on the DL: Jake Westbrook (elbow, out for the season) and Anthony Reyes (elbow, out for the season).
Starters to watch in the minors: Scott Lewis, Carlos Carrasco, Hector Rondon, Charles Lofgren and Jeanmar Gomez. That is some Triple-A rotation, but anyone that comes up would initially be a high-risk AL-only option in September.

Colorado Rockies

Week 21 two-starter(s): Marquis and Hammel. Marquis is likely advisable for all leagues, while Hammel is questionable, especially since his first matchup is against the Dodgers.
Starters on the DL: Jeff Francis (shoulder, out for the season).
Starters to watch in the minors: Christian Friedrich, Jhoulys Chacin and Greg Smith. Franklin Morales is up in relief, Chacin bombed in a spot start, while Friedrich could be hotly anticipated in September. We don't see the Rockies needing a starter, though.

Detroit Tigers

Week 21 two-starter(s): Verlander. He is a must-start in all leagues down the stretch.
Starters on the DL: Jeremy Bonderman (shoulder), Nate Robertson (elbow) and Dontrelle Willis (anxiety). They are on rehab assignments this week and could be spot starters or long relievers come September. We don't see them getting starts at this point, though.
Starters to watch in the minors: Brooks Brown and Alfredo Figaro. Neither of these guys are real long-term candidates. The depth would come from the DL returnees, if anything.

Florida Marlins

Week 21 two-starter(s): West or Johnson. West is currently on schedule, but the Marlins could choose to go with a four-man rotation after West's start Wednesday. Johnson would be a must-start, two-starter if he gets moved up to next Tuesday. West is a questionable option at this point.
Starters on the DL: Anibal Sanchez (shoulder). He likely gets the call for the No. 5 starter's spot Saturday, Aug. 22.
Starters to watch in the minors: Andrew Miller and Rick VandenHurk. The Marlins had talked about a six-man rotation down the stretch, but either one of these guys could replace West or re-replace Sanchez come September. Miller is just getting over an ankle injury, though. He needs to prove healthy and effective first. VandenHurk was just demoted, but he can return around Sept. 1.

Houston Astros

Roy Oswalt
Wandy Rodriguez
Mike Hampton (hamstring, out until at least Aug. 21), Yorman Bazardo is taking his turn Wednesday, Aug. 19
Bud Norris
Brian Moehler

Week 21 two-starter(s): Likely Rodriguez. He figures to be an advisable option after his Thursday start, but one of Norris, Bazardo or Hampton could also get the nod to start next week. It all hinges on Hampton's health come this weekend.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters to watch in the minors: None.

Kansas City Royals

Week 21 two-starter(s): Meche and Greinke. Greinke is a must-start, while Meche is an advisable option after picking up his sixth win Tuesday night at the White Sox.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters to watch in the minors: None. Bruce Chen was removed for Meche's return, so he is now likely the de facto No. 6 starter.

Los Angeles Angels

Week 21 two-starter(s): Weaver and perhaps Lackey. Weaver is likely advisable in all leagues, while Lackey is a must-start even with one start. Lackey could pick up a second start if the Angels choose to skip either back-end rookie O'Sullivan or Bell. We think that's possible, if not likely.
Starters on the DL: Joe Saunders (shoulder), Dustin Moseley (elbow). We don't see either of these guys being a factor before mid-September, if at all. They will be risky AL-only option initially if they do come back.
Starters to watch in the minors: Jordan Walden and Trevor Reckling. Reckling is emerging as their top pitching prospect and could be a candidate to fill a back-end rotation spot if they decide to move away from O'Sullivan or Bell come September. Take a flier on him now in AL-only formats.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Chad Billingsley
Clayton Kershaw
Randy Wolf
Hiroki Kuroda (questionable, concussion)
Charlie Haeger

Week 21 two-starter(s): Kershaw. He is likely a must-start in all leagues with a quality start Wednesday vs. the Cardinals.
Starters on the DL: Eric Milton (shoulder, out for the season).
Starters to watch in the minors: Joshua Lindblom. James McDonald is in the bullpen and Lindblom likely winds up there come September, too. The Dodgers are likely to add a veteran before the end of August.

Milwaukee Brewers

Week 21 two-starter(s): Gallardo and perhaps Jeff Suppan. Gallardo is a must-start, while Suppan will be a risky option coming off a rehab assignment.
Starters on the DL: Suppan (oblique) and Dave Bush (shoulder). They expect to return Aug. 25 and 27, respectively. Their status is up in the air until after one more rehab start, though, which makes them risky options.
Starters to watch in the minors: None.

Minnesota Twins

Week 21 two-starter(s): Baker. He is an advisable option in all leagues with a quality start Wednesday at Texas.
Starters on the DL: Francisco Liriano (arm), Glen Perkins (shoulder), Kevin Slowey (wrist, out for the season) and Boof Bonser (shoulder, out for the season). Liriano said he had no juice in his arm in his last start, which led to the DL assignment. He might not be a factor before mid-September, if at all, this season.
Starters to watch in the minors: Kevin Mulvey. They called up Philip Humber on Tuesday and might start him or Brian Duensing on Saturday in the No. 5 spot. We figure that turn will be skipped whenever possible going forward, which means Fantasy Week 21 (Aug. 24-30).

New York Mets

Week 21 two-starter(s): Parnell and Santana. Parnell is a sleeper for all leagues with a quality start Wednesday vs. Atlanta. Santana remains a must-start in all leagues.
Starters on the DL: John Maine (shoulder, might be out for the season), Fernando Nieve (quadriceps, might be out for the season) and Jonathon Niese (hamstring, out for the season). Maine and Nieve will try to return, but they might not be healthy before the end of the season at this point.
Starters to watch in the minors: Brad Holt. We will have to figure he gets a look in September at this point. Consider taking a flier on him in NL-only and long-term keeper formats.

New York Yankees

Week 21 two-starter(s): Chamberlain. He is an advisable option in all leagues, especially since he will be well-rested and will have to be used for both scheduled turns in Fantasy Week 21 (Aug. 24-30).
Starters on the DL: Chien-Ming Wang (shoulder, out for the season).
Starters to watch in the minors: Ian Kennedy and Kei Igawa. Phil Hughes is now a setup man, Kennedy is still on the DL after surgery -- although he plans to pitch before the end of the minor league season -- and Igawa will never get a chance with the Yankees again. Alfredo Aceves (back), and Sergio Mitre will provide any rotation depth they might need. We figure Gaudin will hold down the No. 5 spot, but he will be skipped after Wednesday's start until late in Fantasy Week 21 (Aug. 24-30).

Oakland Athletics

Week 21 two-starter(s): Mazzaro. He is a questionable option best left for AL-only leagues.
Starters on the DL: Dallas Braden (foot), Justin Duchscherer (elbow) and Josh Outman (elbow, out for the season). The A's have tossed around the idea of a six-man rotation, but Braden and Duchscherer have to prove healthy and effective first.
Starters to watch in the minors: James J. Simmons. We don't see the A's going to the well here, especially with Braden and Duke on the come for September.

Philadelphia Phillies

Week 21 two-starter(s): Lee and Blanton. Lee is a must-start in all leagues, while Blanton could be an advisable option with a quality start Thursday vs. the D-Backs.
Starters on the DL: Brett Myers (hip) and Antonio Bastardo (shoulder). Myers will return in relief, giving him value only in late September if he proves effective enough to replace Brad Lidge at closer.
Starters to watch in the minors: Kyle Kendrick, Kyle Drabek, Joe Savery and Andrew Carpenter. There is little chance the Phillies go to one of these arms as a spot starter over veteran Jamie Moyer at this point.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Week 21 two-starter(s): Ohlendorf. He has been surprisingly effective, but he remains a questionable option because his first matchup is against the defending champion Phillies.
Starters on the DL: Phil Dumatrait (shoulder). He is coming off the DL as a lefty reliever this week.
Starters to watch in the minors: Timothy Alderson, Brad Lincoln and Daniel McCutchen. Jeff Karstens is working in long relief, but Alderson or even Lincoln are the real potential impact pitchers in the Pirates' system now. Alderson won't surpass his innings target of 150 without a September call-up, so consider him one of the potential impact starters on the low-end for NL-only leagues.

San Diego Padres

Week 21 two-starter(s): Latos or Stauffer. Latos is on schedule for the double starts, but a desire to limit his innings could lead to the Padres skipping him after a Monday off day. Latos could be advisable with a rebound outing Wednesday vs. the Cubs. Stauffer is questionable, but he could be a sleeper for deeper leagues with a quality start Thursday vs. the Cardinals.
Starters on the DL: Chris R. Young (shoulder, out for the season), Cha Seung Baek (elbow, out for the season) and Shawn Hill (elbow, out for the season).
Starters to watch in the minors: Aaron Poreda. Poreda (0-2, 9.64) has been bad in Triple-A after the deal to the Padres.

San Francisco Giants

Week 21 two-starter(s): Zito and Cain. Zito could be advisable in all leagues amid his second-half resurgence if he posts a quality start Wednesday at Cincinnati. Cain is likely a must-start in all formats.
Starters on the DL: Randy Johnson (shoulder, might be out for the season) and Noah Lowry (shoulder, out for the season). Johnson might be done for his career.
Starters to watch in the minors: Madison Bumgarner and Kevin Pucetas. Bumgarner might have a low enough innings total to be considered a No. 5 candidate come September. It helps Bumgarner's case that Pucetas (10-3, 3.92 in Triple-A) has hit a wall in August (0-1, 8.64), too.

Seattle Mariners

Week 21 two-starter(s): Snell and Rowland-Smith. They could be sleepers for deeper leagues with quality starts Wednesday and Thursday at Detroit.
Starters on the DL: Carlos Silva (shoulder), Erik Bedard (shoulder, out for season) and Ryan Feierabend (elbow, out for the season). Silva might return in September now, but we doubt he will prove Fantasy viable at this point in his career.
Starters to watch in the minors: Brandon Morrow. Morrow will continue to stretch out until September, we suppose. His complete-game shutout in Triple-A last Friday shows he more than deserves to be up, though.

St. Louis Cardinals

Week 21 two-starter(s): Wainwright. He is a must-start in all leagues.
Starters on the DL: Todd Wellemeyer (elbow), Jaime Garcia (elbow, out for the season). Wellemeyer's struggles might be explained by his sore elbow now. We cannot be sure he will be a factor before the end of the season.
Starters to watch in the minors: P.J. Walters. The Cardinals have Brad Thompson in long relief, but Boggs will hold down the No. 5 spot for now, albeit getting skipped whenever possible.

Tampa Bay Rays

Week 21 two-starter(s): Niemann. He could be an advisable option in all leagues with a quality start Wednesday vs. the Orioles.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters to watch in the minors: Andy Sonnanstine and Wade Davis. Sonnanstine had his quality-start streak ended in Triple-A. Davis (9-7, 3.39, .238 batting-average against) could be an interesting contributor in relief down the stretch.

Texas Rangers

Week 21 two-starter(s): Millwood. He could be an advisable option with a quality start Wednesday vs. the Twins.
Starters on the DL: Brandon McCarthy (shoulder), Matt Harrison (shoulder, out for the season) and Eric Hurley (shoulder, out for the season). McCarthy is working on a rehab assignment and could be a factor come September. Watch him through Fantasy Week 21 (Aug. 24-30).
Starters to watch in the minors: Michael Main and Kasey Kiker. Neftali Feliz is looking outstanding in the bullpen, but the rotation depth is likely to come from McCarthy, if anyone.

Toronto Blue Jays

Roy Halladay
Ricky Romero
Scott Richmond
Brett Cecil (knee, out until at least Aug. 20) ... Brian Tallet will fill in
Marc Rzepczynski

Week 21 two-starter(s): Halladay. He is a must-start in all leagues.
Starters on the DL: Shaun Marcum (elbow, might be out for the season), Bobby Ray (shoulder), Dustin McGowan (shoulder/knee, out for the season), and Jesse Litsch (elbow, out for the season). They have shut down McGowan and might choose to shut down Ray and Marcum now, too.
Starters to watch in the minors: Brad Mills and David Purcey. They could be options come September, but they will be high-risk AL-only starters.

Washington Nationals

Week 21 two-starter(s): Balester and Mock. They are high-risk options for all leagues even with quality starters Wednesday and Thursday vs. the Rockies.
Starters on the DL: Jordan Zimmermann (elbow, out for the season) and Scott Olsen (shoulder, out for the season).
Starters to watch in the minors: Shairon Martis, Matt Chico, Ross Detwiler and Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg finally signed but it will be a tall order to see him in the majors before the end of the year. Outside of selling a few tickets, the risk outweighs the reward for the Nationals.

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