The Tommy John survivors are everywhere.
Chances are you could name a few just off the top of your head. Maybe from your favorite organization. Maybe this year alone.
It's like a brotherhood, and not a particularly selective one. Show us the scar, and you're in.
But it's all pitchers, isn't it? Every player who came to mind was one who stands on a hill and does unnatural things with his arm 90-plus times a game, right?
That's not to say position players haven't had it. The number, I'd suspect, is higher than you'd think. But the reaction to them isn't quite the same in Fantasy.
For pitchers, it's the start of a countdown. From the moment they surrender to the procedure, they become sleepers in waiting. They get drafted the following year and stashed in a DL spot for months in the hope they'll come back early and at least resemble their former selves. "Yup, 12-18 months from now, the rest of the league won't know what hit them."
And that's the case for any pitcher, whether a certified ace like Adam Wainwright or a relative no-name who offered only a glimpse of potential before getting hurt. Think of Jordan Zimmermann. Think of Shaun Marcum. In both cases, the hype turned out to be justified, but that's not the point here. The point is pitchers coming back from the procedure seem to get even more hype than they did before it.
But hitters? Nope, everyone kind of just forgets about them.
Sliders ... These players are more than just hot or cold. Their recent play indicates a long-term change in value.
Kyle Blanks, 1B/OF, Padres
Think back -- way, way back -- to a time when Paul Konerko was on his way out the door and Armando Galarraga might as well have been that guy who won a batting title for the Rockies. It's March 2010, and Blanks is one of the hottest sleepers in Fantasy.
You were alive then. It shouldn't sound that strange to you.
And it wasn't strange at the time. Blanks debuted with 10 homers in 148 at-bats the year before. At age 22, he already had the raw power necessary to tackle the league's toughest park for hitters and seemed destined to join Adrian Gonzalez in what would be a legitimate middle of the order for the Padres.
With his 6-foot-6, 270-pound frame, a 30-homer season seemed possible, and more than a few Fantasy owners had him in their starting lineups during that merry first week of the season when we all tend to confuse "possible" with "probable."
But their enthusiasm didn't last long. By the end of that week, Blanks was batting .158. By the end of April, he was batting .191 and on the waiver wire. By the time he went on the DL with a mild elbow strain in mid-May, he was an afterthought in Fantasy, and by the time that injury evolved into something that required Tommy John surgery in late July, few Fantasy owners were paying enough attention to hear about it.
During that six-week period at the start of 2010, the damage was done. Blanks had failed and Fantasy owners had written him off. He was owned in 0 percent of leagues over the first 15 weeks of this season. Granted, he wasn't on the verge of returning to the majors during that time, but nobody was counting down the days until his return. Nobody cared.
And nobody seemed willing to speculate that the injury had anything to do with the struggles. Forget the fact Blanks was only 23 and still finding his footing in the majors; he was hurt. Mike Aviles hit only .183 before giving in to Tommy John surgery in 2009, and his career since then has suggested the two events were related.
Even after hitting .351 with 11 homers in 134 at-bats for Triple-A Tucson, even after returning to the majors to hit .361 (13 for 36) with three homers over his most recent 36 at-bats, looking every bit like the 22-year-old slugger who captivated Fantasy owners in 2009, Blanks remains an afterthought in Fantasy. He's owned in only 18 percent of leagues. As one of the few players to prove he can hit for power at PETCO Park, he deserves better.
So do you. If you have a hole in your outfield and have been trying to make do with table scraps off the waiver wire, take a flier on Blanks. If his performance now is an extension of his potential from 2009, it'll get even better from here.
Desmond Jennings, OF, Rays
Jennings is the latest rookie to appear on the right side of Sliders this year, joining Michael Pineda, Brandon Beachy, Eric Hosmer, Dustin Ackley and Jemile Weeks in what has been a surprisingly deep class of immediate Fantasy contributors.
And Jennings might be the most prepared of the bunch.
Usually, when an organization is counting down the days to a top prospect's arrival, it jumps the gun. Despite its claims to the contrary, it promotes him at the first vague signs of major-league readiness. It's like at work when you know you brought something good to eat for lunch. Yeah, you should wait until noon to unwrap it, but with the constant anticipation, it's gone by 11.
The Rays didn't do that with Jennings. Despite having already seen him play a full season at Triple-A Durham, despite having career minor-leaguers like Sam Fuld and Justin Ruggiano filling an obvious hole in left field, despite the constant criticism from fans, media and, of course, Fantasy owners, they waited ... and waited and waited, seemingly desperate to avoid the disappointment of 2010 when Jennings arrived, wide-eyed and wonderstruck, to hit .121. They wanted him ready beyond ready. They wanted him to arrive with so much seasoning that he couldn't possibly fail the taste test.
Their patience paid off. The extra time in the minors gave Jennings a chance to regain his stroke after fighting through a wrist injury during all of 2010. In the process, he took a big step forward as a power hitter at Durham, connecting for a career-high 12 homers in only 338 at-bats. Already, we're seeing that part of his skill set translate to the big leagues with his 12 extra-base hits, including four homers, in 80 at-bats.
Jennings' arrival has been such a clear fulfillment of expectations that he's already almost impossible to sit in Fantasy. How can you argue with it? He scored 18 Head-to-Head points in his first weekend in the big leagues and has scored at least 20 points in each of the three weeks since.
Is it sustainable? Well, he won't hit .340 if he continues to strike out every fourth at-bat. But with his high walk rate -- a consistency throughout his minor-league career -- emerging power and Carl Crawford-like base-stealing ability, he should have plenty in store over the final five weeks.
He may have arrived too late to win AL Rookie of the Year, but his performance might cause people to forget he's a rookie anyway.
Howard Kendrick, 2B/1B/OF, Angels
No player has gotten a longer leash from Fantasy owners than Kendrick.
It hasn't just measured in weeks or months. It's been going on for years. Since arriving in the majors in 2006, Kendrick has fallen short of everything expected of him when he was rated among the game's top prospects by Baseball America.
He was supposed to be a batting title contender. He hasn't hit .300 since 2008, when he got only 340 at-bats. He was supposed to develop some power in his mid-20s. His career high in homers still stands at 10.
He looked like he might reverse some of those trends at the beginning of the year, when he hit .322 (57 for 177) with seven homers and a .908 OPS through May 19, but he lost all of his momentum when he injured his hamstring that day. Since then, in 57 games, he's batting .259 (55 for 212) with one homer and a .650 OPS. That's more than half of his season so far.
That career high in homers that once seemed like a certainty now seems like a long shot, given his recent performance. His batting average recently dipped below .300, and he's not even assured everyday at-bats with extra man Maicer Izturis floating around the infield.
What makes Kendrick still worth owning in so many Fantasy leagues? Potential? OK, but we've been saying that for six years now. It's certainly not his production. Since that hamstring injury on May 19, he has exactly one 20-point week in standard Head-to-Head leagues. He has only three all season, with much of his early season production coming in the very first scoring period.
I agree Kendrick isn't a lost cause at age 28, and I'll admit he almost had me fooled at the beginning of the season as well. But we need to begin assessing him on a week-by-week or at least month-by-month basis rather than constantly giving him the benefit of the doubt. He remains owned in 94 percent of Fantasy leagues, ranking him ahead of Ryan Roberts, Emilio Bonifacio, Danny Espinosa, Dustin Ackley, Brett Lawrie, Jason Kipnis and Jemile Weeks. I'd take any of those players over Kendrick right now.
Cory Luebke, SP, Padres
Look, another rookie. How fun.
Luebke is one of the increasing number of pitching prospects whose minor-league numbers suggest he hasn't gotten the recognition he deserves from scouts. Sure, he was a control artist who consistently posted low ERAs and WHIPs, but they wanted to see better stuff.
Well, in nine starts since moving from the bullpen, Luebke has a 2.98 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP and 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings. How's that for stuff?
Most of us who had higher hopes for Luebke can't pat ourselves on the back either. Yeah, he averaged 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings in 29 relief appearances to begin the season, so he must have had some ability to put away hitters. But most people expected his strikeout numbers to decline when moved to the starting role. It's the natural assumption any time a pitcher goes from pitching an inning or two at a time, when he has the freedom to rear back and throw the ball as hard as he can, to pitching six or seven innings at a time, when he has to conserve something for later in the game.
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| Player | Recent trades | |
| 1. | Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Indians | 443 |
| 2. | Carl Crawford, OF, Red Sox | 419 |
| 3. | Cliff Lee, SP, Phillies | 402 |
| 4. | Felix Hernandez, SP, Mariners | 401 |
| 5. | David Price, SP, Rays | 394 |
| 6. | Tim Lincecum, SP, Giants | 391 |
| 7. | Matt Cain, SP, Giants | 377 |
| 8. | Roy Halladay, SP, Phillies | 369 |
| 9. | Jon Lester, SP, Red Sox | 366 |
| 10. | Michael Pineda, SP, Mariners | 361 |
But here's where he fooled us: He conserved something anyway. Either that or his maximum effort is completely backward from what most pitchers experience.
In his first relief appearance on April 2, Luebke averaged 91.5 miles per hour on his fastball. In his final one on June 20, he averaged 92.7. In his first start on June 26, he averaged 91.9 miles per hour on his fastball. In his most recent start on Aug. 11, he averaged 91.0.
In every outing along the way, his velocity wasn't substantially different from the outing before it, regardless of his role. He didn't lose anything in his move from the bullpen to the starting rotation. He only gained the ability to use his third pitch -- a changeup -- giving him a more complete arsenal to fool hitters.
With nine starts now under his belt and no letup from one start to the next, I see no reason to doubt this guy anymore. Granted, he won't get much run support from the Padres, but as long as he's striking out a batter per inning, he's a guy you want on your roster for favorable matchups and two-start weeks.
Aubrey Huff, 1B/OF, Giants
Huff's 60 percent ownership rate is a testament to Fantasy owners not knowing a lost cause when they see one.
Yes, I understand he was a top 10 outfielder last season and had plenty of good seasons before then, but the only consistency for Huff throughout his career has been his inconsistency. His production changes so dramatically from one year to the next that you'd swear he's a different player each time. It happened in 2009 after what was arguably a career year in 2008, and it's happening again now.
Or it already happened. With only five weeks remaining in the season, I think we can pretty much dismiss Huff's 2011 as a lost cause. Perhaps that seems like a no-brainer to you, as it does to me, but then why are so many Fantasy owners still hanging on to him?
The Giants are about ready to pull the plug on him, at least as far as full-time at-bats go. Rookie Brandon Belt returned to the majors over the weekend and homered twice Sunday, prompting manager Bruce Bochy to admit he needs to play him more. Fighting for their playoff lives, the Giants need to get more offense in the lineup, and substituting Huff with Belt is one way of doing that. Granted, Belt can play the outfield as well, but given Bochy's hesitance to use him there in the past, I don't see him playing there on a full-time basis.
The expected changing of the guard should give you all the excuse you need to drop Huff once and for all. It's not like you won't find any alternatives on the waiver wire. He plays the two deepest positions in Fantasy. Why not take a chance on a red-hot Josh Willingham, a soon-to-return Jose Tabata or an up-and-coming Kyle Blanks? All have lower ownership rates than Huff. Even someone like Jason Kubel is owned in only 67 percent of leagues, and he's back to performing like the 28-homer, 103-RBI guy of 2009.
Yes, each of those players comes with some risk, but you're better off gambling on their potential than sticking with the assured mediocrity of Huff.
Hanging Sliders ... These guys look like Sliders, but not so fast! Their recent play might cause you to misinterpret their Fantasy appeal.
Anibal Sanchez, SP, Marlins
Yes, Sanchez is 0-5 with a 7.02 ERA over his last eight games and, in the process, has gone from being an All-Star snub to a guy with a 6-6 record and 4.00 ERA.
But I'm not sure his outlook has changed all that much in Fantasy.
During that eight-start stretch, he has averaged 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings, giving him a career-high rate of 9.4 on the season. He has also averaged 2.9 walks per nine innings, giving him a career-low rate of 2.6 on the season.
His improvement in those two categories is dramatic enough for me to think he's still having a breakout season, and he hasn't let up in either area even during this rough patch.
So what's the issue, then? Bad luck? Maybe some of that. Regression to the mean? Maybe some of that too. More than anything, though, I think Sanchez's problem is just bad timing. He happened to have three of his worst starts of the season -- July 1 at Texas, July 6 vs. Philadelphia and Aug. 10 vs. Atlanta -- at a time when his team wasn't giving him run support. During the five starts in between those three ugly ones, he had a respectable 4.26 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. But because he went 0-3 during that stretch, he gave Fantasy owners no reason for optimism. They look at the week-by-week breakdown and see nothing but misery.
Sanchez hasn't been great lately, but the peripherals suggest he's going to right the ship and get back to pitching the way he did at the beginning of the season. You can reserve him in the meantime, but if you cut him, it might be the mistake that costs you the championship.
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