At one point in life, counting to 10 was considered a significant accomplishment.
But chances are you were counting something like beans or pennies. You weren't counting extra-base hits for a perennial All-Star like Joe Mauer about three-fourths of the way through the season. That's just embarrassing.
How embarrassing? Brett Hayes has that many, and he's the backup for a .229 hitter in Florida.
"That's not fair!" you shout, torch in hand, signaling to the guys with the battering ram. "Mauer missed two months with a leg injury! He's played in only 57 games!"
"Yeah!" echoes the angry mob behind you. "Injury! Games!"
OK, but 57 games is still one-third of the season -- more than that, even -- and would put Mauer on pace for only 28 extra-base hits if he played a full 162 games. He had almost twice that many last season in 137 games.
Now get off my property.
Sliders ... These players are more than just hot or cold. Their recent play indicates a long-term change in value.
Joe Mauer, C, Twins
Don't get me wrong. Mauer's decline in Fantasy value has nothing to do with his lack of home runs, so you can drop the I-told-you-sos left over from his MVP 2009 campaign, when he hit 28 homers. He hit only nine last season, so hopefully you got those out of your system then.
But even with the decline last year, Mauer was still the No. 1 catcher in Fantasy, averaging 3.22 points per game in standard Head-to-Head leagues. This year, he's averaging 2.17, which ranks him well behind Ramon Hernandez (2.57) and Jarrod Saltalamacchia (2.38), among others.
It's not about the lack of homers. It's about the complete inability to drive the ball, as reflected by his decline in doubles (from 43 to eight) and slugging percentage (from .469 to .340).
And it doesn't seem to be getting any better. Even with the move to first base on a part-time basis in an effort to preserve his legs, even with the rise in batting average from .223 to .286 over the last month, even with the simple passage of time, Mauer can't seem to generate the lower-body strength to serve as more than a slap hitter.
To a certain extent, you can live with that in Fantasy. He still plays the catcher position, where the ability to hit .300 and play every day is enough to distinguish him. But as his days off the DL pile up and he continues to double at a rate of one every two weeks, the bilateral leg weakness that sidelined him for two months earlier this season is looking more and more like an ailment that only an offseason of rest can cure ... if even that.
The more the Twins talk about experimenting with him at other the positions, the more you have to think they're worried about his legs.
Should Mauer still be starting for you if you own him in Fantasy? Sure. But you shouldn't approach him as the No. 1 catcher or even one of the elite options at the position.
Ervin Santana, SP, Angels
Sometimes a player needs to do something historic to get the attention of Fantasy owners, like throw a no-hitter followed by a complete game followed by a near-complete game.
Those three starts and the one victory preceding them have brought Santana's record from 4-8 to 8-8. Suddenly, he has more Head-to-Head points on the year than Yovani Gallardo, Jair Jurrjens and David Price.
You think of him along those lines, don't you?
Well, why shouldn't you? His other numbers stack up against the competition. He has a lower ERA than Felix Hernandez, a lower WHIP than Tim Lincecum and more innings than Cliff Lee.
You know how we've all been wondering if Santana will ever get back to being the pitcher he was in 2008, when he won 16 games with more than 200 strikeouts and finished sixth in AL Cy Young voting? He's right here, right now.
And it's not all the doing of that three-start stretch. Over his last 12 starts, Santana has a 2.23 ERA, only once allowing more than three earned runs during that stretch. The only pitchers to throw more innings than him during that stretch -- Justin Verlander and CC Sabathia -- did so with the benefit of one more start.
By nearly every statistical measurement, Santana is pitching like an ace, and though he may still rank a step behind the highest tier of starting pitchers, he's clearly more than just that extra guy you throw in your lineup whenever the matchups seem to benefit him. He's an integral part of your rotation and a pitcher you'd need good reason to remove over the final six weeks of the season.
Jason Heyward, OF, Braves
Heyward earned some leeway from Fantasy owners with his stellar rookie season in which he went to the All-Star game, put together the 10th-highest on-base percentage among qualifying batters and even picked up some MVP votes.
Pretty good for a 20-year-old.
So good, in fact, that Fantasy owners already considered him one of the game's elite, drafting him as a No. 1 outfielder and starting him in more than 80 percent of leagues virtually all season.
But when you consider the Braves are now losing patience with him, shouldn't we be doing the same?
Granted, the Braves don't describe their benching of Heyward as a benching, saying they're simply riding the hot hand, but the fact of the matter is he entered Monday having started only two of the team's previous five games, his at-bats going to a slap-hitting career minor-leaguer named Jose Constanza.
Serenity now.
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| Player | Recent trades | |
| 1. | Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Indians | 700 |
| 2. | Felix Hernandez, SP, Mariners | 642 |
| 3. | Tim Lincecum, SP, Giants | 605 |
| 4. | Cliff Lee, SP, Phillies | 592 |
| 5. | David Price, SP, Rays | 583 |
| 6. | Carl Crawford, OF, Red Sox | 583 |
| 7. | Roy Halladay, SP, Phillies | 572 |
| 8. | Michael Pineda, SP, Mariners | 539 |
| 9. | Jon Lester, SP, Red Sox | 532 |
| 10. | Matt Cain, SP, Giants | 531 |
You can't exactly blame the Braves, though. Heyward is now batting .222 on the season and .229 in 153 at-bats since returning from his DL stint for a shoulder injury, suggesting either the injury wasn't the problem in the first place or it's as much of a problem as ever now.
Either way doesn't bode well for Heyward's prospects over the final six weeks. If it's still a problem, it's not like he's going to stop playing, not with certain players questioning his toughness and all the behind-the-scenes drama that goes along with it. If it's not a problem, well, that opens a whole new can of worms that keeper-league owners would rather not explore.
Long term, Heyward still has first-round talent in Fantasy, and if it shows up over the final six weeks of the season, we might not even remember he was struggling in the first place. But considering it hasn't shown up yet, I'm of the belief something is still wrong with him physically. I wouldn't plan on starting him in mixed leagues until he proves otherwise.
Doug Fister, SP, Tigers
Anyone who has followed this column for any length of time knows I don't like pitchers who don't get strikeouts.
But something about Fister's track record intrigues me. He was an overachiever last year, which made him easy to dismiss, but considering he has actually improved upon those numbers this year, I'm beginning to think he has a little more to him.
If nothing else, you have to like his consistency. He has allowed four earned runs or fewer in each of his last 15 starts, pitching eight innings or more in six of them, seven innings or more in 12 of them and six innings or more in all 15. For the season, his 3.29 ERA ranks 33rd among qualifying pitchers, and his WHIP ranks 29th. He may not be a strikeout artist, but he's everything else.
Well ... everything but a winner.
That's the reason he's still unowned in 29 percent of Fantasy leagues. He spent his first 21 starts with the punchless Mariners, which means over that same impressive 15-start stretch, he compiled a 2-8 record.
The Tigers will change that. They managed to reach first place even with a shortage of starting pitching, meaning their offense carried them. Fister doesn't need to throw a shutout to win with them. He simply needs to limit the opposition to three or four runs and keep his team from turning to the bullpen.
Oh, gee. That's exactly what he does.
Fister already won his first start with the Tigers, and he wasn't even at his best. If he continues to do what he's done all season, he'll win plenty more down the stretch. He could be that last piece you need off the waiver wire. If nothing else, he'll have a better chance of winning every week than unreliable options like A.J. Burnett and Edwin Jackson will.
Logan Morrison, OF, Marlins
To the casual observer, Morrison has improved by leaps and bounds this season, hitting 16 homers in 347 at-bats after hitting only two in 244 at-bats last year.
But in the process, he has destroyed everything that made him great in the first place -- specifically, his high walk rate.
For all those extra homers, his OPS has actually declined from a year ago, from .837 to .786. And if you think that matters more to talent evaluators than Fantasy owners, think again. Last year, Morrison averaged 3.01 Fantasy points per game in standard Head-to-Head leagues. This year, he's averaging 2.87.
So what's the solution? Hey, it's up to Morrison to get back to doing what he did throughout his professional career, including the minors. His conscious effort to hit more homers has seemingly caused him to chase pitches he would have taken in the past -- pitches he isn't able to hit with as much authority -- which would explain both his drop in batting average, from .283 to .248, and his drop in BABIP, from .351 to .269.
And it seems to be getting worse before it gets better. Over his past 45 games, which is about half of his season so far, Morrison is batting only .208. Imagine if he suffers a power drought over the final six weeks.
Homers weren't supposed to be a replacement. They were supposed to be an add-on, the next step in a steady uphill climb. By substituting power for patience, Morrison is showing he's still a work in progress. It doesn't make him bad, necessarily, but it makes him less than the breakout player he looked like he'd be at the beginning of the season.
I recently made a remove to upgrade from Morrison in my 10-team Head-to-Head league, swinging a deal for Lance Berkman. If you find your offense lacking, you might want to try something similar. Morrison might be the weak link holding you back.
Hanging Sliders ... These guys look like Sliders, but not so fast! Their recent play might cause you to misinterpret their Fantasy appeal.
Trevor Cahill, SP, Athletics
Through his first 10 starts, Cahill was 6-1 with a 1.79 ERA in what seemed like a continued progression from last year's breakout. He was earning a reputation as a Fantasy ace and was listed alongside Jered Weaver and Josh Becket as an early Cy Young candidate (yeah, Justin Verlander hadn't taken off yet).
Since then, Cahill has a 5.52 ERA in 15 starts, his starting percentage dropping from 90 to 45.
OK, so all that talk of him being an ace was a little premature, but he hasn't been as bad as the numbers would have you believe. He endured a rough patch in late May and early June, but since then, he has allowed three earned runs or fewer in seven of 10 starts, reserving all the ugliness for the other three starts. He allowed four earned runs in 4 2/3 innings on June 30, 10 earned runs in two innings on July 22 and seven earned runs in four innings on Aug. 1. Remove those three starts from the equation, and he has a 2.01 ERA during that 10-start stretch.
I understand you can't actually remove them from the equation. They still impact his overall numbers, after all. But if he's limiting all the damage to a few scattered starts, he's giving you good production most of the time. And if he's talented enough to give you good production for any length of time, those ugly starts should get further and further apart.
Even the best get rocked from time to time. Jon Lester had four starts just as ugly last year, and he nearly won the Cy Young award.
I'm not saying you should start Cahill every week. He still isn't much of a strikeout artist and still doesn't have the best supporting cast. But you shouldn't let the ugly starts discourage you to the point that you don't even consider him a viable option for your rotation. He's still more or less the same pitcher he was last year, even if his win-loss record won't have a chance to reflect it.
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