Last year's legendary rookie crop was a fun one to scout, track and watch tally huge Fantasy numbers. (An incomparable one, honestly.)
So, naturally, everyone wants to know who's got next? Like we actually know with Miss Cleo clarity. "Call me now."
But, here's a Week 1 attempt at forshadowing: Mike Pelfrey of the Mets is this year's Justin Verlander. The Indians' Adam Miller can be this year's Jered Weaver. The difference between the two AL ROY finalists of a year ago is Verlander was a Fantasy stud from April to October, a rarity for rookie pitchers. Miller won't arrive until midseason.
Pelfrey is presently opening the season in the minor leagues (Class A Port St. Lucie on April 7), but he won the No. 5 starter's spot and will be back with the big club when needed in the No. 5 starter's turn -- no later than Sunday, April 15, the last day of Fantasy Week 2 (April 9-15).
We find it borderline shocking a talent like Pelfrey is owned in just 53 percent of CBS SportsLine Fantasy Baseball leagues for next week. He is starting in just 7 percent. If you have learned anything in the first few days of the season, the Mets are a good club to stock your Fantasy pitching staff from. Rick Peterson is a highly regarded pitching coach. Paul Lo Duca is one of the best game-callers in baseball.
| The Pelfrey file | ||
| Born: Jan. 14, 1984 | ||
| Height/Weight: 6-7/210 | ||
| Drafted: No. 9 overall (2005) | ||
| Minor-league career totals ('06) | ||
| W-L | ERA | BAA |
| 7-3 | 2.43 | .232 |
| GS | IP | K-BB |
| 18 | 96 | 109-33 |
| First partial MLB season ('06) | ||
| W-L | ERA | BAA |
| 2-1 | 5.48 | .305 |
| GS | IP | K-BB |
| 4 | 21 | 13-12 |
Pelfrey will be pitching for a team that could challenge for 100 wins and a World Series title. Sounds like a very similar story to Verlander's of a year ago.
The similarities go further, albeit one year later in the case of the Wichita State product, Pelfrey, who is just under a year younger.
Their frames are lanky. Their stuff is wicked and hard. And their resumes are equally impressive.
Both pitchers were the No. 1 amateur pitching prospect coming out of college as rated by Baseball America. Verlander was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2005 amateur draft, while Pelfrey slipped to No. 9 overall in 2006 due to signability concerns. It was a price the Mets were willing to pay.
| The Verlander file | ||
| Born: Feb. 20, 1983 | ||
| Height/Weight: 6-5/200 | ||
| Drafted: No. 2 overall (2004) | ||
| Minor-league career totals ('05) | ||
| W-L | ERA | BAA |
| 11-2 | 1.29 | .197 |
| GS | IP | K-BB |
| 20 | 119 | 136-26 |
| First partial MLB season ('05) | ||
| W-L | ERA | BAA |
| 0-2 | 7.17 | .313 |
| GS | IP | K-BB |
| 2 | 11 | 7-5 |
Both breezed through the minor-league levels in mere months, then, amid their first professional season(s), the pitching phenoms arrived in the big leagues quickly. They struggled a little before coming down with a sore shoulder, but that should be expected for a young pitcher getting through a full pro season for the first time, as we always say.
While Verlander does throw an m.p.h. or two harder, and more consistently hard, Pelfrey has something very, very few rookie pitchers have: a top-notch contender that promises loads of run support. And that's not to mention a solid bullpen to back him up.
Again, all the variables Verlander had in his favor when he rose up to win a rotation spot with the Tigers last spring. Now it's Pelfrey's turn and in a pitcher's park like Shea and on a contender like the Mets, with their juggernaut offense, we like his chances as the NL Rookie of the Year front-runner.
Good thing for Pelfrey, he won't have to compete against Daisuke Mat-Cy-zaka for top rookie honors over in the AL.
Rookie watch
Here are the top rookies in Fantasy to date (stats through April 4):
Before we go on, we have to give our pre-emptive warning: If a young player is not on this list, make sure he's a rookie before trying to call us out for overlooking him (or even politely asking us why he's not listed). We have only considered players to have appeared in a game so far.
| Top 5 AL Fantasy Rookies | ||
| Position, player, team | Rotisserie stats to date | |
| 1 | OF Elijah Dukes, TB | .333 AVG, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 R, 0 SB |
| Homering in first career at-bat is quite a way to start things off. | ||
| 2 | 2B Dustin Pedroia | .500-0-0-1-0 |
| Decent two-game start for overlooked rookie middle infielder. | ||
| 3 | 3B Akinori Iwamura, TB | .333-0-0-1-0 |
| Terrible spring leads to caution, as do 'next Kaz Matsui' thoughts. | ||
| 4 | RF Delmon Young, TB | .250-0-1-0-0 |
| Was he really swinging at the first pitch every time? Take it easy. | ||
| 5 | SP Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS | (1-0), 1.29 ERA, 10 K, 1.000 WHIP |
| His debut on Thursday lived up to the ridiculous hype. | ||
| Honorable mentions: 3B Alex Gordon, KC; OF Travis Buck, OAK; RP Brandon Morrow, SEA; RP Joakim Soria, KC; RP Sean Henn, NYY. | ||
| Top 5 NL Fantasy Rookies | ||
| Position, player, team | Rotisserie stats | |
| 1 | OF Jeff Baker, COL | 1.000 AVG, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 R, 0 SB |
| Three pinch-hit chances, three hits (two for extra bases). Wow! | ||
| 2 | C Carlos Ruiz, PHI | .500-1-1-1-0 |
| He won't be a backup catcher for long if he hits like this. | ||
| 3 | SS Troy Tulowitzki, COL | .267-0-1-2-0 |
| Not a bad start for the next Bobby Crosby or Khalil Greene. | ||
| 4 | C Miguel Montero, ARI | .500-0-1-0-0 |
| Not a starter, yet, but he's still worthy of NL-only consideration. | ||
| 5 | UTL Alberto Callaspo, ARI | .500-0-0-1-0 |
| Another non-starter, but he will be NL-only solid in utility role. | ||
| Honorable mentions: C Chris Iannetta, COL; RP Henry Owens, FLA; SP/RP Chris Sampson, HOU; RP Matt Lindstrom, FLA; OF Alejandro De Aza, FLA; 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, SD; OF Chris Young, ARI; OF Kory Casto, WAS; RP Dustin Nippert, ARI; RP Joe Smith, NYM. | ||
On the verge
Here are some of our favorite prospects who are opening in the minor leagues and are definitely worth tracking closely:
| Minor league hotlist | ||
| Position, player, team | Spring training numbers | |
| 1 | SP Mike Pelfrey, NYM | (1-2), 5.48 ERA, 5 K, 1.652 WHIP, 0 SV |
| Won No. 5 starter spot, but turn won't come until Sunday, April 15. | ||
| 2 | 3B Ryan Braun, MIL | .353 AVG, 5 HR, 15 RBI, 7 R, 2 SB |
| If not for bad spring defense, he would have been opening-day 3B. | ||
| 3 | SP Matt Garza, MIN | (0-0)-1.50-7-1.167-0 |
| One of Ramon Ortiz, Sidney Ponson or Carlos Silva will surely fail. | ||
| 4 | SP Adam Miller, CLE | (0-0)-0.00-8-0.786-0 |
| Elite pitching prospect could be this year's Jered Weaver arrival. | ||
| 5 | CF Hunter Pence, HOU | .571-2-9-10-2 |
| Will impact immediately if Chris Burke or Craig Biggio goes down. | ||
| Honorable mentions: SP Mark Prior, CHC; SP Andrew Miller, DET; SP Jon Lester, BOS; SP Homer Bailey, CIN; SP Phil Hughes, NYY; OF Billy Butler, KC; 1B/OF James Loney, LAD; 3B Adam LaRoche, LAD; SS/3B Brandon Wood, LAA; 3B Evan Longoria, TB; SP Tim Lincecum, SF; 1B Daric Barton, OAK; OF/1B Adam Lind, TOR; 1B Joey Votto, CIN; SP Glen Perkins, MIN; 3B/OF Josh Fields, CHW; SP Yovani Gallardo, MIL; SP Nick Adenhart, LAA; OF Terry Evans, LAA; OF Felix Pie, CHC; OF Adam Jones, SEA. | ||
Baby talk
Jeff Barabasz, Rockford, Ill.: I have the first pick in the minor-league portion of our NL-only draft and am stuck between Mark Prior or Homer Bailey. Which player has more upside this season? Is it one of these guys or somebody else?
Emack: I would take a shot on Prior first, because he has done it before and could be dominant again if he can get/stay healthy. Bailey has more promise long term, but Prior will be closer to a call-up and more capable of producing immediate dividends. Young pitching talents are great ... mostly three years from now.
Anonymous: I have my eye on several free agents in my league, including B.J. Upton, but I already own Howie Kendrick and Ian Kinsler and have been agonizing over whether to dump one for an OF. Is second base as deep as it seems? With Upton likely on the verge of 2B eligibility, is he now in the same class with these other guys or might he be in the near future?
Emack: Kendrick and Kinsler are promising and certain to play every day, which is not something we can say about Upton until he proves otherwise. We adore Upton adding depth to the second-base talent pool, so all of you who don't have two of the game's other future stars at the position like this guy, take the flier on Upton before it's too late.
You can e-mail Emack your Fantasy Baseball questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Prospects Report in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we do not guarantee personal responses to all questions.
